Professors discuss balance of power
Michael Lyons and Damon Cann, professors in the department of political science, spoke to students Wednesday about the aftermath of the 2010 midterm elections and what to expect from the government over the next two years.
Lyons spoke first, focusing on the shift of power in congress that occurred following this year’s elections. He said historically, voters tend to distrust a single party holding both the white house and congress – as the Democrats have since the 2008 election – and the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives follows a pattern of establishing balance in the federal government.
“We have come to distrust both parties so much,” Lyons said.
Even though split-party control of congress can often lead to a legislative stalemate, Lyons said voters feel more comfortable with a division in power.
“It just makes us feel safer and more protected,” Lyons said. “At the same time we claim to want change, we deadlock government.”
Lyons suggested many of the Democratic Party’s struggles this election stemmed from the Obama administration not learning from the past, especially in regard to the recently-passed health care bill. Voters, he said, are wary of legislation that represents sweeping and dramatic change and interest groups were able to instill a certain degree of fear.
“The American public is not receptive to change, no matter how appealing that is as a campaign slogan,” Lyons said.
After the 2008 election, Lyons said the Democrats had an attitude of not wanting to waste a crisis. In a similar way to how the Republican Party used 9/11 to expand the war against terrorism, the Democrats capitalized on the recession to push through a dramatic overhaul of the health care system. In both examples, Lyons said, the action proved deadly to the party.
“The Democratic Party is going to pay a heavy price for health care reform,” Lyons said.
Following Lyons’ remarks, Cann spoke about the Utah election results, drawing data from the Utah Colleges Exit Poll. According to the data presented, Utah Governor Gary Herbert lost among independents. In most states, losing the independent vote would cost a candidate the election, but Cann said the overwhelmingly high number of republicans in Utah diminished this threat.
“Even if Herbert loses among independents by a relatively small margin, it doesn’t matter,” Cann said.
Through the exit polling, voters were divided into groups based on religious activity. Herbert won three-fourths of the votes from those identified as “very active” in their religions. On the other end of the scale, Herbert’s opponent Peter Carroon was able to pick up more votes among the less active and “don’t care to say” voters. Cann said this division is typical for elections.
“Utah politics isn’t different from other states in the trends that we see …it’s different because of the composition of the electorate,” Cann said.
Cann addressed the subject of the Tea Party, which proved to be a significant force in this year’s political climate. Cann described the movement as unique in that they represent a populist anti-government sentiment, but added their existence is not unprecedented.
“We’ve seen groups like this pop up from time to time,” Cann said. “They tend to go away.”
Cann said Utah represents an excellent venue for observing the Tea Party, in that 40 percent of the state’s voters strongly approve or somewhat support the movement.
“That’s very high relative to most other states,” Cann said.
Cann presented polling data that tested voters’ knowledge of the powers of congress enumerated in the Constitution. Voters were given congressional powers such as the ability to borrow money on the credit of the United States and were asked if such an act was constitutional. Generally speaking, members of the Tea Party demonstrated a lesser knowledge of congress’ powers; for that particular question, only 19 percent of Tea Partiers answered accurately.
“They’re not saying ‘I don’t know,’ they’re saying ‘I do know’ and they’re wrong,” Cann said.
Lyons described the data as “troubling,” saying the Tea Party platform is built around constitutionality and members are generally eager to invoke the constitution during debate. Later on, Lyons said he would not be surprised to see a liberal counterpart to the Tea Party emerge.
“I see a serious risk of something similar to the Tea Party emerging in the Democratic Party,” Lyons said.
Following their remarks, pizza was served to the roughly 30 students in attendance and the floor was opened up to questions from the audience. The professors were asked for their hypotheses on the Obama administration’s next moves, Obama’s re-election odds in 2012, and the outlook for both parties heading into the next session of congress.
Both professors agreed Obama is likely to be re-elected to a second term in office, though Cann said attempting to judge presidential election outcomes based on mid-term elections is “dicey, dangerous business.”
Lyons referred again to the division of power and said voters will likely see Obama as less of a threat now that the Republicans control the house.
– b.c.wood@aggiemail.usu.edu