COLUMN: From the Right
I’m sorry Israel, I really am, but it looks like you’ll be on your own this time.
Tensions between Iran and the western world are getting hot. What the world has known for a long time behind closed doors has become much more apparent over the past few months: Iran is seeking nuclear weapons.
In fact, the situation has become so elevated that reports indicate current Secretary of Defense Leone Panetta believes Israel will mount pre-emptive attacks against Iran before June.
Though we have tried for years to dissuade Iran from its nuclear program through sanctions and diplomatic means, it has been to no avail. The bottom is falling out from under diplomacy. Just last week Iran’s supreme leader promised aid to any state or organization that takes aggressive action against Israel.
In the middle of the two countries sits the U.S. — the war-wearied, economically devastated U.S. As it stands, right now, the U.S. can do little to stay the aggression of Iran and ensure Israel’s security. Should conflict between Israel and Iran really heat up, neither diplomacy nor armed conflict provides a viable solution; Israel will be largely on its own.
While I am a strong proponent of exhausting peaceful options before resorting to armed conflict, the simple fact of the matter is that it won’t work with Iran. Did we really believe we could come to a diplomatic resolution with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? This is, after all, the man who stood before the U.N., spouting 9/11 conspiracy nonsense.
Sanctions are another futile attempt to resolve the conflict peacefully. While we would like to believe cutting off trade with Iran would pressure them into bending to our will, the reality is it only strengthens their resolve.
In a centralized government such as Iran’s, decision makers are rarely impacted by sanctions. Instead, the economic hardships imposed upon the country are passed onto the common people who in turn only grow to detest the U.S.-led sanctioning coalition.
We gave it our best effort, but barring a highly unlikely radical change in government, Iran won’t stray from its nuclear course without military intervention.
Armed conflict, however, is another dead end for the U.S. and will rest primarily on the shoulders of Israel. Over the past decade, the U.S. military has been exhausted and stretched incredibly thin. Our economic resources have been depleted and morale is at a low point. It would be incredibly foolish for us to put boots on the ground in Iran.
Perhaps, the only realistic military option would be a utilization of the air force and drone strikes. Even that may be unlikely to happen, though, because the commander in chief is sitting on top of an election year.
Usually, getting involved in war is a surefire way to rally the country around you and get re-elected. This year, however, may be the exception. The nation is so exhausted from two wars that dragged on long after their projected timeframes that we want nothing more than to crawl back into our isolationist policies and let the world handle its own problems. Getting mixed up in another Middle Eastern conflict, just after conflicts with Iraq have ended, would cause outrage. If the incumbent wants to be re-elected, he will do everything he can to keep his hands clean from Middle East conflicts.
So what should the U.S. do about Iran? The question we should be asking is what can the U.S. do about Iran? Unfortunately, not much at the moment. In the next few months, the Iranian conflict will fall squarely on the shoulders of Israel.