Utah climatologist predicts less snow in winters to come
Students may have to begin preparing themselves for less snow and more rain each year in Utah, said Robert Gillies, director of USU’s Utah Climate Center and state climatologist for Utah.
In a state known for its powder snow, receiving 65 percent of normal snowfall this year left ski resorts with a shortened season and Utah residents with a mild winter. Gillies said his research shows this may be the start of a complete precipitation change.
In an article recently published by three USU professors – Gillies, Shih-Yu Wang of the plants, soils and climate department, and Marty Booth, of the Utah Climate Center – evidence suggests recent weather conditions may become the format for future winters.
With research showing that Utah’s precipitation has been changing, he said snow boots may someday be exchanged for galoshes.
Taking information from more than six data sets and millions of data points, Gillies said everything brought researchers to the same conclusion.
“They all pointed to the same thing – snow decreasing and precipitation, which is snow plus rain, increasing,” Gillies said. “That means that we are getting more precipitation coming as rain.”
In an article published last week in The Salt Lake Tribune, journalist Judy Fahys said this research combined with forecasting models suggests a future without snow in Utah.
She said the information first caught her attention at a Salt Lake City conference a few months ago. After Gillies presented a few primer facts about the article, Fahys said she talked to him about using it in one of her future stories.
“I called him and asked him to send me a copy of the paper, and we talked about it,” Fahys said. “He’s someone I’ve interviewed before for a variety of articles and the go-to guy for statistics for the state.”
Gillies said, although the facts in the article were in line, he disagreed with Fahys’ projected outcome.
“Certainly the lower and mid-level mountain altitudes will be affected,” Gillies said. “But will it be as intense as that? I’m not sure.”
In addition to Fahys’ article, Gillies’ research has been featured elsewhere in the public forum, including in Wednesday’s edition of Radio West, a National Public Radio talk show, and Focus on the Climate, a Park City lecture series hosted by the Swaner Preserve and EcoCenter.
Sally Tauber, the director of business development for the preserve and an organizer of the lecture series, said she was looking for three professors to present at the series, and Gillies stood out.
“The conference was looking to get one professor from each university,” Tauber said. “We wanted to show a broad depth and also a wide range of knowledge.”
Gillies said the secret to his success is seeing the big picture. He said one reason weather forecasters have been predicting incomplete forecasts is because they have lacked access to all of the essential data. Comparing weather to a complicated piece of music, Gillies said it is the often ignored harmony inside the music that makes the piece come together.
“The harmonics come together to make the whole piece. Climate is exactly like that,” Gillies said. “We have a big climate signal, which is very complex, but the harmonics in it, which are really the cycles, are the important thing to tease out of this complex picture.”
El Nino and La Nina are examples of two such harmonics that can affect the outcome of weather, he said. As climate patterns that occur in the Pacific Ocean every five years, Gillies said these cycles’ trends can actually be used to predict weather patterns in the United States.
Depending on the cycle, he said, the ocean water is warmed or cooled, and the surrounding air currents change. These air streams are what push ocean weather systems toward or away from Utah.
As important as these cycles can be for weather, Gillies said, it is the combination of these and the “quasi-decadal oscillation,” or 10-year cycles, that paint a richer picture.
“This year the National Weather Service said it was going to be a wet winter, but it wasn’t,” Gillies said. “If you want to see in a particular winter if it’s going to be wet or dry, you really have to take all the cycles into account.”
This is what Gillies said he and his fellow researchers attempted to do with their research. Citing a single source, scientists had claimed the amount of snow in Utah was decreasing, but when other scientists began questioning these evidential claims, Gillies said he knew it was time to act.
“It was confusing the water managers,” Gillies said. “They needed to know what was really happening to the snow in Utah.”
As the climate research center for the state, Gillies said he felt it was the Utah Climate Center’s job to straighten things out, and he wanted to approach it innovatively.
“I said, ‘Let’s research this from a different perspective – many, many different perspectives,” he said.
Gillies said included millions of data points and also tried to include all of the harmonics in order to get things right for this research project.
“Snow is very important for your water resource,” Gillies said. “Snowfall, and how it’s changing over the years, is really important to our water resources.”
– brianna.b@aggiemail.usu.edu