Quick Hits
Setting the Stage: The Sooners come into the year ranked 7th in the AP Poll. That’s bad news for USU, which hasn’t defeated a ranked opponent since 1991, losing 26 straight against ranked teams since then. The Aggies last played OU in 2007, losing 54-3.
When OU has the ball: Expect the Sooners to implement a balanced but physical game plan that heavily features running backs DeMarco Murray and Jermie Calhoun. Murray, who rushed for over a 1,000 yards in 2008 but has been hampered by injury since, is back to 100 percent going into this year. Also look for OU quarterback Landry Jones to try to work the ball to big-play receiver Ryan Broyles as much as possible. Broyles was a second-team, all-Big 12 pick last year, and will give Aggie cornerback Chris Randle plenty to focus on during the game.
When USU has the ball: Look for a diverse offensive game plan. USU coordinator Dave Baldwin said running the ball against OU’s physical, yet fast, defense is going to be essential, but the Aggies have to be creative in how they get their playmakers in space. Quarterback Diondre Borel will have to play efficient and turnover-free if USU is to have any chance at keeping pace with the OU offense, while USU’s offensive line will have to find a way to hold up against OU’s front four.
X-factor: Borel’s legs. For as much improvement as he made in the offseason in accuracy and his ability to stand in the pocket, Borel will have to ad lib against the OU defense if the Aggies are to be successful. There is no way USU will be able to protect Borel if he doesn’t improvise in the pocket, but his ability to take off and run could give the OU defense pause. If USU is to pull the upset, it will be because Borel puts the game on both his arm and legs.
Crunching Numbers: ESPN.com Scouts Inc., a statistical service which projects games, predicts an overwhelming OU victory based off of data compiled from a sample of 75 games played since the 2003-2004 season that share many of the same factors that this game features. According to Scouts Inc., in those 75 match-ups, the team like Utah State lost 73 of 75 similar historical games. Aggie fans might want to borrow a line from Han Solo when looking at this one: “Never tell me the odds.”
Statesman Prediction: This is a much better USU team than the one which lost to OU in 2007, but the Aggies are still nowhere near OU in terms of talent and depth. USU has the potential for the upset, but in order to do it the Aggies will have to play a turnover-free game and get a few lucky breaks against the Sooners. Those are a lot of “ifs,” and when push comes to shove, Landry Jones and the OU offense should be too strong for the USU defense. This one looks nastier on the scoreboard than it will on the field, but OU ultimately prevails 48-24.
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