Students, faculty predict the vote
Six political science classes and five political science professors have predicted the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election, with no consensus between the two groups as to the winner.
The predictions are a part of an assignment and competition within the department to bring real-world political examples into the classroom.
The assignment originated in Lecturer Kristen Dawson’s introductory political science class over the summer, where she said she hoped students would learn to use class material in more than the abstract.
“I wanted something that students could use to apply all the information that they learned in class, and the reason why is because the classes that I enjoyed the most were the ones that used basic knowledge or theory of an area and then applied it to something that was important: Something that you could actually see results or effects of,” she said.
In Dawson’s summer class, students looked at 13 swing states and were sent to do research. Students were asked to look at the voting history in the state, demographics, public opinion polls, how the newspapers were covering the election, key issues and other factors.
Dawson was approached this fall by Associate Professor Michael Lyons about making the assignment a department-wide option for classes. Now, involved in the competition are both sections of United States Government and Politics and four other classes in the department.
Angie Batista, a junior in International Business, said a swing state is a state that doesn’t have a specific alliance.
“Swing states are states that define the election,” she said. “I bet they probably like it that way.”
Batista, who is in Dawson’s class, said she looked at Indiana for the assignment but as she looked into it, she found it had already been called.
“I think at the beginning of the election it was a swing state, but it’s clearly Republican now,” she said.
The six classes varied in the number of swing states the assignment covered, ranging from 8 states to 11 in the reported predictions.
Each of the classes was assigned to at least Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, although Dawson said there are typically 13 states considered swing states. She said some of the states are no longer considered “swing states.”
The classes predicted Obama will win the election in the electoral college, but the margin of win varies from 12 electoral votes to 42. Within a win are several swing state wins which tended to match closely among the class predictions. The classes unanimously thought Romney will take Florida and Virginia, while unanimously predicting Obama will take Iowa
, Ohio and Wisconsin.
The professors did not have a unanimous decision on the winner, with three of the five predicting a national win for Romney despite having mostly similar predictions for swing states. The professors predict the margin of a win for Romney to be between 12 and 52 electoral votes.
The professors unanimously predicted Romney will take Colorado, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, and Obama will take Iowa and Mich.
Dawson predicted Romney will win by the margin of 12 votes. She said she based a lot of her decision on Ohio.
“I really see Ohio as the pivotal state. Whoever has won Ohio has won the presidential election for a really long time,” Dawson said. “Because Ohio has the second-most electoral votes of the swing states, it’s pivotal for either candidate.”
Batista said she has run the numbers a few times since doing the assignment and each time she sees Obama winning, but by a slimmer and slimmer margin each time.
“At this point, I don’t know who will win, but I really hope Obama wins,” Batista said. “The closer election day comes, the more difficult it is to tell who will win.”
Batista said even though she’s an international student from the Dominican Republic, she thinks the presidential election is important. She said the assignment and competition helped her understanding of American politics.
“I learned a lot more about American politics and issues in this assignment and other discussions outside of class,” she said. “Even though it’s an American election, the results will have an impact on my country.”
In Dawson’s class, students receive extra credit based on their predictions. If the students in her class have a more accurate prediction than the other classes, each person will receive a point of extra credit, as well as if the students make a more accurate prediction than Dawson.
Dawson said as the election results roll in Tuesday night, the political science department will watch in the Business Building. The department will begin an open election party at 6 p.m., showing CNN’s election coverage. Two of the professors in the prediction competition, Lyons and Cann, will speak about elections at 7 p.m.
– april.ashland@aggiemail.usu.edu