COLUMN: Steelemas a Bah-Humbug for WAC, USU Fans
There are few days in the year that excite a college football fan more than Steelemas.
That’s right, Steelemas.
Otherwise known as Christmas in June, ‘Steelemas’ – as it’s known to diehard fans – is the day in which long suffering college football junkies finally receive their Phil Steele college football preview magazine. Scratch that. At 328 pages, calling Phil Steele’s gargantuan compendium of team previews and statistics a mere “preview” magazine is like reducing the Bible to just another book “about” Christianity. Point is, Phil Steele magazine is more or less the end all be all of season preview magazines, and a prerequisite for anyone who wants to get a peek into the forthcoming college football season.
But for fans of WAC teams not named Boise State, this year’s Steelemas wasn’t exactly a merry one. After reading Mr. Steele’s outlook on the conference, I found my usually ho-ho-ho outlook for the Utah State Aggies a much more ‘bah humbug’ than anything else. Not only did Steele’s outlook for the 2010 season seem less than enthusiastic for USU, but his over-the-top praise for the Broncos makes one wonder if any of the other teams in the conference even stand a chance.
I think I’ve read Cold War Soviet propaganda less enthusiastic than Steele’s outlook for for Boise State, who many consider to be a national title contender in 2010. And, unlike the Soviet propaganda, the truly scary part of Steele’s outlook is that he’s right: Boise really does look like an unstoppable gridiron juggernaught.
Of course, I knew Boise was going to be good heading into next season.This is, as they say, not my first rodeo. Anyone who saw the Broncos run right over and through USU (not to mention every other team in the WAC) last season knows Boise is good. And with 20 out of 22 returning starters coming back from last year’s 14-0 team, it’s not like I was expecting Boise to be anything but the consensus favorite to win the conference.
But still, reading Steele’s preview made me wonder if any team in the conference can even come close to upsetting Boise State this season.
For instance, I knew that after completing nearly 65% of his passes in 2009, Boise State quarterback Kelleen Moore was by far the best signal caller in the WAC. But until I read Steele’s preview I didn’t realize how potent of an offense Moore will command in 2010. Not only does he have the benefit of all his top receivers and running backs from last year to throw to, but he’ll have the benefit of Steele’s 17th best offensive line in the country. Did you know Boise returns a combined 88 starts on the offensive line this year? If you didn’t, you do now. Gulp.
Likewise, I knew the Boise defense (which yielded just 17.1 points per game last season – by far the lowest in the WAC) would be stout again this year, but after reading Steele’s preview I have to wonder if opposing teams’ offenses should even bother taking to the field next year. Sure, the Broncos lose All-WAC cornerback Kyle Wilson to the NFL, but otherwise the team brings back 18 of its top 19 tacklers from a season ago, including four players who earned all-league honors in 2009. Double gulp.
Of course, it wouldn’t be Steelemas – happy or unhappy – without taking note of the guru’s extensive use of home-grown statistics. Steele, who has pioneered several statistical indictors that have been incredibly accurate in predicting teams’ success or failure, suggest Boise could be even better in 2010 than they were in 2009.
Wait a second. After a ‘perfect’ season in 2009, is that even possible?
According to Phil’s returning letterman system it sure is. This statistics, which assigns ‘experience points’ to all 120 FBS teams, is based on nine years of study. Over that nine year span, Phil has calculated that teams which return 190.1 or more of his ‘experience points’ (based on letterman returning, starters returning, and quarterback experience) have improved their record in 89.5% of the cases during the subsequent season. The first team on his list for teams with that chance to improve their record this year?
None other than Boise State. Triple gulp.
C’mon, this is getting ridiculous!
In the interest of all disclosure, there are a few points WAC fans can take solace in. Perhaps most intriguing is Phil’s famous “Turnovers=Turnaround” formula, which uses a team’s turnover ratio in a previous season to predict improvement or dropoff in terms of wins and losses the next season. Since 1996, Phil has found that teams that run a positive double-digit turnover ratio have had the same or weaker record 77% of the time, and that teams which have run a negative double-digit ratio have recorded stronger records in 80% of the cases. Last year Boise St. led the nation in turnover ratio, recording a +22 mark – a sure sign that the team could be headed for a stumble in 2010. Furthermore, the last time Boise ran a double digit positive turnover ratio (+11 in 2006) the Broncos had a dropoff in record the following year (Boise went 13-0 in 2006 and 10-3 in 2007).
There are a few problems with this line of thinking though. The first is that it assumes turnovers are a random occurrence and owe nothing to coaching of the players on the team. While there might be some truth to that, it might not be the most applicable description of Boise’s turnover situation. In fact, since taking over as Boise State head coach in 2006, Chris Petersen’s teams have never had a negative turnover ratio, while the experience coming back for Boise this year suggests that the team won’t be committing too many careless errors in ball control.
No sir, even the statistics which suggest Boise State could be in for a dropoff this year don’t really suggest that. A further perusal of Steele’s preview is like reading a wartime litany of capabilities. Boise had the fewest scholarship seniors in 2009. They haven’t lost a regular season home game since 2002. The team has only lost one conference game under Petersen, and is 68-4 in WAC play since 2001.
My goodness, who does this Steele guy work for, anyway?
Truth be told, Steele isn’t saying anything on the contrary to what many other preseason prognosticators have been writing. If the guru of college football stats makes Boise State sound unstoppable in 2010, it’s because the Broncos may very well be unstoppable. With fans of the WAC’s other eight teams looking for an early Steelemas gift in 2010, maybe the only hopeful news will have to wait until 2011, when the Broncos bid adieu to the WAC and the conference race suddenly becomes wide open.
Until then, I think I’ll be keeping the cookies and milk to myself.
Adam Nettina is a senior history major and member of the Football Writers Association of America. When he’s not covering Utah State, he’s writing about Navy football for GoMids.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/AdamNettina.