Fantasy 2015: studs, duds and players to watch
The most wonderful time of the year is finally here.
I’m not talking about the beginning of a new semester, the pretty fall colors or even college football. I’m talking about fantasy football.
One of the most important and stressful times of any Fantasy Manager’s season is the draft. Let’s take a moment to remember that while the draft is vital to ensuring a good start for your team, it’s only the beginning. How many of us drafted Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice in the first round last year? How many of us drafted the man they call OBJ? That’s Odell Beckham Jr. Come on people.
That being said, here are my studs, duds, undervalued and overvalued players to watch in this year’s draft.
STUD: C.J. Anderson
Over the last couple of weeks I have seen Anderson move from a second-round pick to a first-round pick on the ESPN Mock Draft servers.
A lot of managers are starting to see Anderson’s upside, and for good reason. Over Denver’s last eight games, Anderson had over 1,000 all-purpose yards and added 10 touchdowns. More importantly, he earned the starting position. This year, with Gary Kubiak at the helm of the offense, we can expect Denver to run much more (don’t draft Manning high). The Broncos will also be looking for a red zone threat after the departure of Julius Thomas to Jacksonville, so there is plenty of scoring upside to Anderson.
My prediction: C.J. will finish as a top-5 fantasy back this year.
Other Studs: Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees, Antonio Brown.
Dud: Julius Thomas
Don’t get me wrong, Thomas is an excellent athlete; but if you draft him in the third or fourth round and expect him to put up similar numbers to last year, you, my friend, will be sorely disappointed.
First off, Thomas is moving from Peyton Manning as a quarterback to Blake Bortles. Need I say more? Probably not, but I will.
The Jaguars have not traditionally been fond of throwing the ball to their tight end — only six teams threw the ball to their tight ends less last year. Thomas will come nowhere close to his scoring production from last year. My advice: don’t draft him.
Other Duds: Jimmy Graham, Jonathan Stewart, Colin Kaepernick
Underrated: Big Ben Rothlisberger
Big Ben is coming off his best fantasy season in seven years.
Who could forget the 12 touchdowns he had in a two-week stretch last year against Baltimore and Indianapolis? Big Ben has stayed healthy the past two seasons, and has completely mastered Todd Haley’s offense.
More importantly, Roethlisberger is surrounded by a good offensive line, and two of the most explosive offensive weapons in the league, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. What’s more, Big Ben knows how to use them. My advice: Roethlisberger tends to slip in most drafts — wait on a QB and take him late.
Other Underrated Players: Josh Hill, Joseph Randle, Justin Forsett
Overrated: Demarco Murray
No disrespect to Murray, but holding him up to last year’s stats is unrealistic.
First and foremost, Murray will no longer be running behind Dallas’s dominant offensive line. He will also no longer have Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to distract opposing defenses. My biggest concern, however, is the fact that excluding last year’s historic season, Murray has never played a full season, including his college days.
Murray is a good back. If you draft him, make sure your expectations are realistic. My prediction: if Murray stays healthy, his season will be very similar LeSean McCoy’s season last year. Expect decent, not elite, numbers.
Other Overrated Players: Melvin Gordon, DeSean Jackson, LeGarrette Blount
—Colby May is a senior majoring business administration. He is an avid Packers fan and a successful fantasy football manager. Some people have called him the Vincent Van Gogh of fantasy sports. You can reach him at colbymay@aggiemail.usu.edu or on twitter at @may_colby7.