More precipitation, less snow
With winter just around the corner, snow sport enthusiasts may be excited to hear the state’s head climatologist Robert Gillies said we’re in for more snow this year.
At least, at higher elevations.
What they may not be excited to hear is in the mid to lower elevations, snowfall and snow pack levels will be decreased. In fact, Gillies, who directors the Climate Center, agrees with other water experts at Utah State University, saying the low levels are part of a trend in climate change visible in Utah’s weather for many years.
“We’re getting more precipitation with less storms because the storms are now more intense than they used to be,” Gillies said.
Professor Kelly Kopp said she’s surprised the ski industry isn’t reacting more visibly to these climate changes which could heavily impact their business.
“I think the ski industry is going to get involved,” said Kopp, a water conservation and turfgrass specialist. “If they don’t have snow, they have nothing.”
Recently, the ski industry started making more conspicuous steps toward facing the issue. All 14 of the state’s alpine ski resorts joined a climate advocacy group called Protect Our Winters to help spread news and educate the public about climate change and how it affects winter.
Utah State biometeorology doctorate student Daniel Barandiaran said the challenges that face the ski industry have to do with a shorter season. This is due to accumulation beginning later in the season and melting happening sooner, as well as the challenges that come with limited snow-making capabilities.
“The most obvious challenge to the ski industry is that there is less snow to enjoy,” he said. “They’ll have to manufacture more snow which is expensive and uses up water which could be used for other things. When you put all that together, it translates into higher costs at the lift lines because the season is shorter and they have to make their money.”
Gillies said overall the actual amount of precipitation will actually be higher, but only at higher elevations.
“What is happening is they’re losing snow pack on the lower and mid elevations,” Gillies said. “In fact, it’s almost all gone in the lower. The interesting thing is they will get more snow at the higher elevations because we’ve got more moisture in the atmosphere. When we have snow at any altitude it will be more, because at higher altitudes it will always be cold enough.”
Gillies, Kopp and Barandiaran said this trend is not stopping anytime soon.
“That trend is going to continue,” Barandiaran said. “That line is going to continue to creep up the mountains over time. All of our winter precipitation will be in the form of rain. That brings about lots of different challenges.”
Among these challenges is the issue of water collection for use during the hot summer months. Kopp said the state’s infrastructure is not prepared to handle more rain than snow.
“Historically, we’ve relied on snow pack as a storage for our water, and then we are able to access that storage through the summer,” Kopp said. “But when we get rainfall like we are now and like we did in June and May, we don’t have the capacity to store that like we do with snow pack.”
Barandiaran said the issue with storage has to do with soil and the warming of climate temperatures.
“The western U.S. is very mountainous,” he said. “Back in the day with snow all the time, that was reliable way of having a sort of bank account of water. With less snow that means that you don’t get that steady trickle of water down the streams through the season.”
Barandiaran said with the change from snow to rain the water doesn’t have time to get as deep into the soil and is then easily evaporated when the hotter temperatures arrive. He said though it may not seem like it now, these water collection problems and trends could mean bigger problems in the future.
“Water is life,” Barandiaran said. “The real challenges is when it comes to water as a natural resource that we as people use.”
Gillies also pointed out the importance of this issue more so for the general public than just to those who enjoy winter sports.
“So that’s the good side of the story — you’ve got more precipitation to play with,” he said. “If you figure out a way to capture that rain, then we’re good. That’s where the infrastructure and politics come in, and if the politicians continue to deny that this is happening due to climate change — well, then you have a problem.”
Gillies and Rob Davies, a physicist at the Climate Center, will be giving a presentation about these issues and other climate issues at the USU TEDx event on Oct. 23. Gillies also published an in-depth report on this trend with fellow Aggie professor Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang in the Journal of Climate in July 2012.
For more information on climate change and what USU is doing about it visit climate.usurf.usu.edu.