Nine things we learned in college football week 13
- This has been a year of surprising conference championship match-ups
Okay, we probably expected Alabama vs Florida to decide the SEC. And Clemson vs Virginia Tech isn’t exactly shocking. But San Diego State facing off against… Wyoming? Didn’t see that one. Wisconsin? We expected that fairly well, but we didn’t think they’d be preparing to play Penn State. And the PAC-12? If you were expecting a match-up between Washington and Colorado, you’re lying through your teeth.
- There’s a reason why it’s simply referred to as ‘The Game’
Ohio State-Michigan lived up to every single bit of hype it was given, as the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines on a walk-touchdown in double overtime, 30-27. The Buckeyes overcame two missed field goals and a 17-7 deficit to force and win the first overtime in the rivalry’s history. The absolute magnificence of the game gives a lot of ammunition to those who will be rooting for a rematch in the Playoff.
- The Big Ten has turned into a mess for the Playoff Selection Committee to deal with
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin all may have a credible argument for being awarded a spot in the Playoff. Wisconsin and Penn State both will be relying on a possible Big Ten championship as their main points, though Penn State can also boast a win over Ohio State on its resume while Wisconsin would point to its two losses both being by one score to Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan’s argument will be having beaten both Penn State and Wisconsin, and having lost on a last-second field goal to Iowa and in double overtime at Ohio State. The Buckeyes will declare themselves as the only one-loss Big Ten team. If we’re solely talking the best four teams in the country, in my opinion, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin should join Alabama in the Playoff. But, as it stands, only one team will probably be admitted into the four-team field. Will the Committee favor head-to-head match-ups more than a conference championship, or vice versa? We’ll get our answer when the Committee reveals its four-team field on December 4.
- Washington could make the Committee’s job slightly easier
The Committee’s nightmare right now would be having to choose between the Big Ten Champion (Penn State or Wisconsin) and Michigan. That’s a no-win situation the Committee would love to avoid. Washington’s dismantling of Washington State is one step towards avoiding that situation. A Washington team with one loss, to top-ten ranked USC no less, that wins the PAC-12 is likely guaranteed a spot in the Playoff. Were the Huskies to lose to Colorado next week, however, the Committee’s worse nightmare will be realized.
- Clemson could make the Committee’s job slightly easier
Switch out Washington with Clemson in the previous paragraph. The Tigers will be favored by more than a touchdown in the ACC title game against Virginia Tech and the Committee will secretly be wishing the Tigers to hold up their end of the bargain. But if the Committee’s nightmare is having one of either Clemson or Washington lose, their hell would be having both lose. Judging by the Playoff rankings from last week, if both Clemson and Washington lose and are left out of the Playoff, the next teams up after Alabama and Ohio State would be Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. In short, unless the Committee has Colorado or Oklahoma jump several spots, the Playoff would feature three Big Ten teams.
- Western Michigan is all but guaranteed a New Year’s Six bowl bid
The Mountain West ate themselves alive over the weekend. Houston completely removed itself from contention by losing to Memphis. Meanwhile, Western Michigan took care of business by beating Toledo 55-35 on Friday. With #11, #13, #15, #16, #17, #19, and #20 in the Playoff rankings all losing, the #21 Broncos stand to gain some ground in the rankings, as well. Defeat an 8-4 Ohio team in the MAC championship, and the New Year’s Six bowl bid, and New Year’s Six payout, will belong to Western Michigan.
- Donnell Pumphrey is cutting it close
Several weeks ago, it looked like a sure thing that Pumphrey would break Ron Dayne’s career rushing record of 6,397 yards rushing. But with the record in sight, teams have buckled down even more to contain Pumphrey, who was gained only 129 yards in his past two games combined. For his career, Pumphrey stands at 6,180 yards rushing and needs 218 yards to break the record. The MW title game plus a bowl game remains on the Aztecs schedule, so Pumphrey remains a solid bet to break the record, but he sure is cutting it close.
- There will be at least two 5-7 bowl teams, and at most four
There are six teams fighting for four bowl spots, with only two of them playing next week. 5-7 teams are chosen to fill bowl games based on APR scores, i.e. academic success. North Texas and Mississippi State are both guaranteed a bowl game thanks to their scores. Next in line for a bowl game would be Texas and Northern Illinois, though they’re waiting for the final games of the Sun Belt to know their fate. Both South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette stand at 5-6 with one game left on the schedule against New Mexico Stand and Louisiana-Monroe, respectively. Texas needs one of those two to lose while Northern Illinois needs losses from both.
- My picks for the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six Bowls:
These include my predictions for how conference championships will play out. These are also the teams I think the Committee WILL choose, not who I think they SHOULD choose.
Playoff (Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl): 1) Alabama, 2) Ohio State, 3) Clemson, 4) Michigan
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs Florida
Cotton Bowl: Western Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs Penn State