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USU men’s basketball Christmas preview

Christmas break is almost upon us. And I know exactly the questions you’ll be asking during that time:

“Will my roommate decide to move out before I come back for spring semester?”

“How many times are my relatives going to ask me why I’m still single?”

“How much food can I sneak out of my parents’ house without them noticing?”

“What’s the basketball team going to look like when I get back to Logan?”

In order: no, they probably won’t move out. Expect that question at least 10 times, probably from the same person. And your parents went grocery shopping this month with the expectation that you were going to ‘steal’ some food, so just don’t be a hoarder about it.

The last question is a little more time-consuming and slightly more complex. The simplest way is to go game-by-game through the Aggies’ schedule, starting with Great Falls this week and ending with UNLV on Jan. 7. For each game, I’ll give my honest opinion on what percentage chance the Aggies have of winning.

Great Falls University – 98 percent win probability

I won’t spend much time here because, in short, the Aggies should win this game comfortable. Great Falls is a member of the NAIA, and while they do count towards seasons statistics and win-loss records, they shouldn’t be much of a threat. Why am I so confident? Their mascot is the Argonauts. They’ve lost to the University of Jamestown and Lewis-Clark State so far this season. And unless you hold Yellowstone Christian College if really high regard, Utah State is the best team on their schedule. This should be a tune-up following the Aggies’ tough stretch against Purdue, Texas Tech, BYU and Indiana State.

Utah Valley University – 65 percent win probability

This is no gimme. UVU has fielded a pretty good team this year, evidenced by their win at BYU. The Wolverines have yet to score less than 69 points in a game, and that low came at No.8  Gonzaga. They rely on several transfers to lead their team, most notably Kenneth Ogbe and Isaac Neilson, who transferred from Utah and BYU, respectively. Ogbe is a 6-foot-6 guard shooting over 60 percent from three-point range while Neilson is a 6-foot-11 center who is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game so far this season. Overall, however, the Wolverines have been outrebounded by roughly three rebounds per contest and the Aggies have shown good perimeter defense to start the season. I’d expect a win here, but UVU won’t go down easily.

University of New Orleans – 83 percent win probability

The Privateers lack size down low, with their tallest player being only 6-foot-9. Despite playing somewhat small, they’ve actually outrebounded opponents by 1.6 rebounds per game this year. However, the Privateers turn it over nearly 19 times a game and are a much different team on the road than they are at home. At home, New Orleans has yet to lose this year. On the road, they’ve yet to win. The Privateers will be traveling cross-country to play in the Spectrum only two days after playing Louisiana-Lafayette at home. The circumstances are good for another Aggie win.

Weber State University – 70 percent win probability

The Wildcats have only beaten UC Davis this year, while losing to Pepperdine and Buffalo by slim margins and being blown out by Stanford and Iona. But this team always gets up to play Utah State. Keep in mind last year’s squad nearly pulled off an upset on their home floor, only losing 73-70. The Wildcats no longer have Joel Bolomboy, who’s now with the Utah Jazz, but most of their starting lineup from a year ago is still around and they are once again picked to win the Big Sky this year. A key will be slowing down guard Jeremy Senglin, who’s averaging 18.8 points per game to start the season. Weber State will probably keep this closer than is comfortable, but at home in the Spectrum the Aggies should be able to fend off the in-state foe.

Boise State University – 60 percent win probability

The Aggies will open up Mountain West conference play against the Broncos, and we’re still not sure what to make of the team from Boise. They looked pretty good in a near-upset at Oregon, losing 68-63. On the flipside, though, they looked very vulnerable in losses to Mississippi State and the College of Charleston while playing in the Charleston Classic. The Broncos lost their top three scorers from last year and still seem to be adapting. Junior forward Chandler Hutchinson has taken on the leading role for the team, leading the team in both scoring and rebounding at 17.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. The Aggies have struggled down low in several games this year and will need to be on their game to avoid the same results against the 6-foot-7 forward. The Broncos have turned the ball over 14 times per game, though, and are only shooting 32.7 percent from three. But Leon Rice is a great coach, and he’ll have the Broncos ready to go. Boise State was picked to finish one spot ahead of the Aggies in the preseason MW polls, and this game could be huge in determining tournament seeding come March. If Utah State comes ready to play, they have a great opportunity to start 1-0 in the Mountain West.

Air Force – 66 percent win probability

The Falcons can be pretty well summed up by their schedule and results so far. After a 5-0 start that included wins over Jacksonville, Florida A&M, and Stetson, the Falcons dropped three straight to Akron, East Carolina and New Mexico State. The Falcons are still building the program to where they can compete with quality teams on a consistent basis. From what we’ve seen so far this season, they’re not quite there yet. Utah State hasn’t lost to the Falcons since January 1, 2014, and will be carrying a four-game win streak in the series into this game. That should continue. Air Force just doesn’t have the size to punish the Aggies down low. If Utah State can shut down the Falcons’ three-point shooting, where they’ve shot 42 percent this year, this should be a fairly easy win. In-conference road games are often a lot harder than predicted, though. Thus, the somewhat conservative prediction.

University of New Mexico – 37 percent win probability

*gets up on soapbox* GET YOUR FATTY ACIDS BACK TO LOGAN FOR THIS GAME! New Mexico is 5-2 on the year, with those two losses coming to Virginia Tech and Dayton on a neutral court. The Lobos are picked to finish third in the MW this year, though they also received three first-place votes in the preseason conference poll. This team is good. And if the Aggies want a quality shot at beating them, a loud and proud Spectrum crowd will need to show up. The Lobos have two preseason All-MW Team selectees in senior forward Tim Williams and preseason MW Player of the Year Elijah Brown. Last year, Brown poured in the fifth-most points by one player in a season in MW history, earning the MW Newcomer of the Year award after transferring from Butler. This year, Williams has so far carried the load, averaging 19 points to go along with about seven rebounds per contest. Brown has yet to catch fire, averaging 15 points on only 37.5 percent shooting from the field. New Mexico was the cream of the crop in the Mountain West, clashing with San Diego State for the top spot in the conference. In head coach Craig Neal’s fourth year, the Lobos are looking to reclaim that status. This will be a tough game for the Aggies. If they are to win, they’ll need to win it defensively against a team that’s shooting 50 percent from the field to start the season. They’ll need to control the boards. And they’ll need the Spectrum to be crazy.

UNLV – 62 percent win probability

Speaking of teams trying to return to their former glory, the Running Rebels will be looking to do just that. After starting out last season 7-1 with wins over ranked Indiana and Oregon, the wheels came off and the Rebels stumbled to an 18-15 season. UNLV then lost a bulk of its roster to graduation and the NBA, as five players declared for the draft, including Stephen Zimmerman and Patrick McCaw. The preseason conference polls took notice, as UNLV was picked to finish eighth in the MW. Jalen Poyser is the only returning recruit from last year’s outstanding class. Poyser has been the consistent threat for the Rebels, averaging over 17 points per game and 40 percent from deep. St. John’s graduate transfer Christian Jones and senior forward Tyrell Green have stepped up, as well, combining for 26 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. The Rebels will also be battle tested, as they’ll play Duke, Oregon, and Kansas in a two-week stretch in December. This is another game to mark on your calendars. At home, Utah State should take care of business, but UNLV has the athletes to always be competitive and have outrebounded opponents by five rebounds per game so far. The Aggies will have to play a complete in order to come away with a win.

Overall Summary

People may be tempted to declare the walls to be caving in after the Aggies were blown out twice in Cancun and lost to BYU at Vivint Smart Home Arena. But let’s take quick stock of the team. They only returned four players from last year’s squad. While this year’s recruiting class was arguably the best in Aggie history, it was always going to take some time for the team to gel and live up to that potential. While it would have been nice to pull an upset somewhere in that three-game stretch, a three-game skid wasn’t exactly coming out of left field. The Aggies should rebound (pun intended) during Christmas break from that streak. The Mountain West, save for maybe San Diego State, won’t pose the same talent differential that we saw in Cancun. In other words, pretty much every game from here on out is winnable for the Aggies. The team is young and will make mistakes, but they should get better as the season progresses and players gain more experience.

In all honesty, I’d expect this team to be 10-5 entering the spring semester. And I say that only so I don’t sound like too much of a homer by saying they’ll be 11-4 or 12-3. Though I honestly believe this team could be capable of that. The potential is there and what flaws the team has shown are fixable with practice and experience. In short, you should be hyped for this team right now, let alone when you come back from Christmas break. This team is exciting, athletic, and just fun to watch. And at the end of the day, win or lose, Jalen Moore still has the best hair in all of college basketball. And that alone is worth attending a game.