THE BIG ONE: USU football vs BYU preview

According to a study published in 2004, the average person cannot detect the difference between Coke and Pepsi in a blind taste-test. While a vast number of people hold some preference in the war between the colas, few are actually able to discern their preferred beverage from their often despised counterparts.

Utah State takes on in-state rival BYU on Friday night at Maverik Stadium in Logan. Like beauty, Friday night’s winner is in the eye of the beholder, dependent on which side of the rivalry your allegiances lay. But is that true when the name on the jersey is taken away? Let’s suppose we assign one team to be Team A and the other to be Team B and pit their stats against one and another. Is your pick for Friday still reliant on your geographical location?

Team A has an offense that, while it hasn’t been spectacular, has had its moments. At 439 yards per game, split into 175 yards rushing and 264 yards through the air, the offense has to be respected. A total of nine different players have totaled over 50 yards on receptions during the young season, and three separate rushers have eclipsed 140 yards. The quarterback hasn’t lived up to his full potential, throwing six interceptions over the first four games, but he’s still accounted for over 950 yards of total offense this season.

Team B’s offense also hasn’t been firing on all cylinders in the first month of the season. The team has eclipsed 300 total yards in one game only once this season, against FCS competition. All told, the offense averages only 221.8 yards per game and has only posted 39 points over their first four contests. With a rushing offense that averages only 77 yards per game and an air attack that manages only 144, the offense lacks teeth. With several playmakers moved on from last season, new ones have yet to step up, and time is running out for the offense to piece it together.

Defensively, Team A has been far from stalwart, allowing 32 points and 382 yards per game. They have forced nine turnovers on the year, but they’ve also surrendered points each time an opponent has entered the redzone. The secondary has been relatively tight, holding opponents to under 200 yards passing, but the strength in the secondary is somewhat compromised by a struggling front seven that has given up 186 yards on the ground per contest. A lot of the defense’s success depends on the offense giving the team an early lead and maintaining a significant amount of possession.

Team B’s defense has also struggled, possibly a side effect of their anemic offense. Given the raw deal of having only 39 points scored on the season, the defense holding opponents to fewer than 25 points per game is actually a fairly remarkable achievement. That success hinges largely on redzone defense, however, as teams have only scored on 77 percent of their redzone visits this season. Yardage wise, the strength of the defense appears to be the secondary while the run defense seems to disappoint. This is slightly misleading, as the team’s passing efficiency defense ranks in the bottom 20 of the FBS and the team allows only 4.1 yards per carry. All in all, the defense is a formidable unit, but with the offense averaging only 23 minutes of possession per game, any unit would struggle.

Special teams may come up huge in this game, and both teams pose a significant claim as the better unit. Team B boasts a significant edge as a punt unit, averaging nearly five full yards more on net punt average than team A. But in the kicking game, team A holds a definitive edge, with the team yet to miss a field goal or extra point through four games. Team B already has two missed field goal attempts to their name.

Let’s not be naive. You probably already know which team is which here. Team A is Utah State and Team B is BYU. And despite looking at the various stats of each time, your allegiances still probably preside as the main factor in who you think will win this game. But the stats do indicate a close, competitive game. In a rivalry game, all outcomes are on the table, and nothing should surprise us come Friday night.

Utah State will take on BYU in an attempt to regain the Old Wagon Wheel trophy. The sensible majority says that the Cougars should walk away with the victory in unsurprising fashion. But this is not the usual BYU team this season. There are legitimate problems with the offense, from a personnel level to a scheme level. USU has their own flaws, of course, but when two flawed teams meet, the outcome is far from certain. BYU is currently favored, and rightfully so considering their 15-2 record in the last 17 meetings of this rivalry. But I hesitate to automatically allocate a win to the Cougars in this game.

In the words of longtime college football analyst Lee Corso, “Not so fast.”