PREVIEW: Utah State football vs. Boise State
The Utah State football 2017 season is officially a Love story and baby, I’m just saying yes.
After several tests and trial runs, redshirt freshman QB Jordan Love was given full reigns of the offense last week versus UNLV and responded by captaining the Aggie offense to 52 points on the road, coming back from both 14-0 and 28-14 during the game. Love’s 316 yards passing were the third-most by an Aggie freshman in school history. Naturally, the question following the offensive revelation versus the Rebels is can the freshman repeat the success against a far-superior Boise State team?
While I hate to rain on the parade that the UNLV game kicked off, that answer is no. Boise State fields a defense that ranks in the top 20 in the country for total yardage allowed per game, plus a fundamentally terrific special teams unit not prone to allowing the 200 yards on only five combined punt and kick returns USU garnered versus UNLV. As if it needed any more explanation, Boise State is better than UNLV.
Utah State has struggled against good teams this season, and that’s being subtle. According to S&P rankings compiled by footballoutsiders.com, Utah State’s three FBS victories have come versus the 101st, 120th, and 125th best teams in the country (UNLV, BYU, and SJSU, respectively). The Aggies have played three teams within the top 50 of those rankings: Wisconsin (7th), Wake Forest (34th), and Colorado State (36th). USU has been outscored by a combined 132-34. Boise State’s S&P ranking? 47th.
The Aggies’ margin for error in this game is razor thin. USU can pull off the upset at home, but it will take an impeccable performance from each phase of the game. If the Aggies can’t crack the Bronco defense and fail the eclipse 20 points in this game, a lot of Maverik Stadium will go home frustrated. Boise State hasn’t surrendered more than 14 points in a game since the calendar turned to October. Three players in Curtis Weaver, Jabril Frazier, and Leighton Vander Esch all have three or more sacks on the season. USU’s offensive line this season, an almost entirely new group from a season ago, has not yet pulled it together. The unit has allowed an average of three sacks per game this year, ranking 111th in FBS and up from 2.5 per game in 2016. Love had time to pick apart the UNLV defense last week. It will be Boise’s goal to ensure he doesn’t enjoy the same luxury on Saturday night. Love faced that kind of pressure versus Wyoming and faltered to the tune of three interceptions during the game.
The running game will have to take the pressure off Love, whether that be Lajuan Hunt, Tre Miller, or whoever else lines up in the USU backfield. Downfield, Ron’quavion Tarver, Braelon Roberts, and Dax Raymond will have to attack the ball in the air. Boise State has eight interceptions on the season, and there will be times when USU receivers have to play defense to avoid that total climbing. That may seem like an unavailing detail, but any erasure of a possible mistake will be to the Aggies’ benefit during this game.
The Aggies’ best shot to stay in this game may be a repeat of 2015, when the Aggies forced eight turnovers in a 52-26 over the Broncos. Boise State QB Brett Rypien was responsible for five of those eight turnovers in 2015, but he’s splitting time in his junior season with graduate transfer Montrell Cozart. The turmoil at the QB position has been a considerable factor in the Broncos’ 111th-ranked offense. The Aggies will have to worry about Cedric Wilson, a legitimate threat at wide receiver, and USU’s secondary will have its hands full keeping him from running amok in the passing game. A front-seven that posted three sacks and seven tackles for loss versus UNLV will be required to get consistent pressure and stop the run without safety help. None of that should be above Utah State’s abilities on defense, but saying that and then doing it for 48 minutes can be two entirely different stories.
Utah State’s special teams has rebounded in a miraculous way from the futility from last season. The Aggies currently rank 17th in the country in S&P rankings for special teams units, thanks in large part to the immaculate kicking of sophomore Dominik Eberle. The German wunderkid is second in the country for field goal percentage, while attempting more field goals than anyone else in the top 10. Eberle has hit 14 of 15 field goals on the year, and is tied for 11th in the country for total scoring. Junior Aaron Dalton has averaged a respectable 42.2 yards per punt on the season, while WR Jordan Nathan ranks ninth in the country with 15.7 yards per punt return. Both teams have the ability to swing an entire game with neither their offense or defense on the field, and Saturday night could be decided by which “third phase” plays the cleanest and most efficient game.
Utah State will be behind the 8-ball when kickoff arrives at 8 pm on Saturday night in Logan. Boise State has more talent and they are playing far better than Utah State currently is at this point of the season. USU will have to play a crisp, clean, and lucky game to emerge victorious and one win closer to a bowl game. Such a game isn’t out of the question for the Aggies, but I wouldn’t be loving the odds.