Predicting the Outcome of the 2018 USU Football Season

Utah State head coach Matt Wells has the chance this upcoming season to throw a bucket of cold water over the hot coals under his seat from the last few seasons.

Going 3-9 in the 2016 season, those coals were blazing, and Wells faced enormous pressure going into last season with a tough schedule featuring two powerful FBS teams in non-conference play and a tougher-than-usual conference slate. Despite the struggle, Wells coached like a man desperate and did exactly what he needed to do to keep his job. Nothing more, nothing less.

The Aggies finished 6-6 in regular season play last year and got back into the postseason after a year away, but lost the Arizona Bowl to New Mexico State in overtime.

This coming season, Wells fields a team that has over 66 percent returning production (RP), according to SBNation’s Bill Connelly, including redshirt sophomore quarterback Jordan Love. The Aggies return 18 starters, tied for the most in school history, and 51 letterwinners, a school record. Wells will have more experience than ever. The only major losses from last year come from the secondary, as defensive co-stars Jalen Davis and Dallin Leavitt now play in the NFL.  More good news? A simpler non-conference slate gives the Aggies the chance at a hot start, rather than being a Power-5 guinea pig.

The challenge? The Mountain West, per Connelly again, has more RP than any other conference in the nation in 2018 (66.5 percent). Moreover, USU’s otherwise opportunistic schedule gets bookended by a season opener against Michigan State, a powerhouse with a plethora of returning starters, and the ever-conquering Boise State.

Here, let’s take a gander at what could happen for the Aggies in 2018.

Week 1: August 31 at Michigan State

Anyone that thinks that the Aggies have a good chance to win this game are overthinking the Spartans’ 2016 season debacle way too much. Ranked No. 9 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Power Rankings, the Spartans return 19 starters from a 10-3 2017 campaign, lead the country in RP and look to present a formidable challenge to Ohio State’s reign atop the Big Ten.

If the Aggies won their season opener versus the Spartans, it would be doomsday for MSU’s team.

Utah State is no doormat in the FBS, however, and MSU should know it. As MSU FanSided reporter Stephen Robb wrote, “This matchup is not good for the Aggies, however, if the Spartans do not take them seriously then it could end up being a close game.”

As good as the Aggies can hope to be this season, they will just be practice for Michigan State at home. Score a touchdown in the first half, keep them under 45 points, and make the Spartans question themselves a bit, and USU will have themselves a moral victory.

Winner: Michigan State (0-1)

Week 2: September 8 vs New Mexico State

Imagine getting into the fight of the decade with your wife. You end up saying something super hurtful to her, but you win the argument. Trouble is, she went and talked to her parents after the fight, and now you’re having dinner with them tomorrow.

That feeling of dread is exactly what the “other” Aggies should be experiencing leading up to this matchup.

New Mexico State’s coach ought to have written a letter of gratitude to USU kicker Dominik Eberle, whose horrid kicking performance (2-6 on field goals) essentially gifted NM State an overtime bowl victory. After the 26-20 win, NMSU fans flooded the field of the Arizona Bowl.

You read that right. The Aggies in red stormed the field in celebration of a low-tier bowl win, capping off a 7-6 season. That is the standard of success at New Mexico State.

Now that the “party” is over, NMSU has to retool its team, which lost its quarterback, top rusher, and top reciever, the three of which were some of the best players the red Aggies have ever had in their history. They will be going up against a Utah State team returning nearly everyone from that bowl game, revenge on their minds, playing in their home opener.

I once read how the colonial British Army wore red coats to disguise if they were ever bleeding. The visiting Aggies may want to bring their home uniforms.

Winner: Utah State (1-1)

Week 3: September 13 vs Tennessee Tech

Tennessee Tech is essentially a bye week scrimmage for the Aggies.

The Golden Eagles were at the bottom of the heap in 2017 with a 1-10 record, and they fired their head coach, Marcus Satterfield, for it. A positive note for the Eagles is they are getting back a coach already familiar with the system in Dewayne Alexander (on his third time coaching at Tech). It’s not going to matter when they come to Logan.

If the Aggies lose this game, Coach Wells will be fired immediately, banned from Maverik Stadium, sent to prison, and shanked within the day.

Utah State is Michigan State in the eyes of Tennessee Tech. Expect such a result.

Winner: Utah State (2-1)

Week 4: September 22 vs Air Force

Don’t be fooled by their 2017 season, an uncharacteristic 5-7 letdown. Air Force is a perennially good team, and still managed to upset the Aggies last year.

The Falcons’ offense is as stalwart and unchanging as the actual U.S. military, sporting a backfield that seems like an army of running backs, they never throw the ball because they don’t have to. It was the same last year, but the AFA defense couldn’t stop a slug in its tracks, and it cost the Falcons their season.

By the standards of RP, 2018 could be even more polarizing for Air Force, who lose almost half their RP on defense but return three quarters of it on offense, including both of their run-happy quarterbacks.

Utah State hasn’t had much luck against the Falcons lately, losing their last three in the series. It would be expected that the Falcons will get at least somewhat back to their winning ways and become a real test for the Aggies. On the final match of a three-game homestand and with another chance to erase last year’s sins, Utah State has a good chance to break the streak.

Winner: Utah State (3-1)

Week 5: Bye Week

Week 6: October 5 at BYU

For so many reasons, this game is the toughest on the Aggies’ schedule to predict as of right now.

Utah State embarrassed the hapless Cougars last season in Logan, 40-24, in a game that saw USU cornerback Jalen Davis with more catches (three interceptions) off BYU quarterbacks than any of BYU’s receivers. BYU went on to have its worst season in a very, very long time and a bottom-5 offense. Subsequently, BYU fired offensive coordinator Ty Detmer and has to pick up the pieces in an attempt to make something of next season.

So why is it unclear if the Aggies, who are on the upswing, can beat the rebuilding Cougars?

Firstly, the plain truth is that any given year, BYU will always be the more talented team. The program is just plain better. Better recruits, higher-profile coaching, and we can only assume they have way more money. Proud as Utah State can be about recent victories, most of the time the Aggies win, it says more about BYU’s struggles than USU’s strengths. If the Cougars have their heads on straight, they usually have the upper hand.

Second, last year, BYU had an offense that was about as watchable as Stefan Fangmeier’s film adaptation of Eragon, and they still managed to hang 24 points on USU. Had the Aggies not knocked the Cougars backup quarterback Beau Hoge out of the game in the second quarter, forcing a wholly unprepared Koy Detmer Jr. onto the field in his place, BYU may not have gift-wrapped so many picks to Davis, and the Cougars may still have gotten the victory.

If BYU maintains a healthy starter at quarterback, whoever it is, then they have an advantage. On that subject, it’d be quite nice to see both starting quarterbacks make it out of this game on their own feet. It tends not to happen.

If the Aggies can win it, they send a very clear message to the BYU program that it’s time to stop treating Utah State like the little brother. Utah State hasn’t posted consecutive wins against BYU since 1974. The Cougars will be playing for their dignity, and I don’t see lightning striking twice.

Winner: BYU (3-2)

Week 7: October 13 vs UNLV

UNLV is one of a few Mountain West teams that rely heavily on a few key strengths to desperately mask their glaring weaknesses. For the Rebels, it can never be said that they can’t move.

Only San Diego State managed to shut down UNLV’s run game, holding them to 104 total rushing yards and slaughtering them, 41-10. BYU kept them to a mere 123, but allowed backup quarterback Johnny Stanton to have a 300+ yard field day in the passing game.

That’s often about all the Rebels can do: eat up yardage. In the Aggies matchup against the last year, UNLV covered ground quickly in the first half en route to a 28-14 lead, but crippled under the Aggies’ defensive stand after halftime. Love, on the other hand, went to work, and had his best game of the season at the expense of the Rebels’ secondary.

It shouldn’t be all fun and games this week for USU. After all, the Rebels temporarily had them last year. This has the makings of a trap game for the Aggies, and the Utah State front seven had better come ready.

Now that Love is a year older, and has the keys to the offense firmly placed in his hand, it’s expected that he will air raid the porous UNLV offense another year in a row, giving the Aggies some gas to steamroll the easier schedule ahead.

Winner: Utah State (4-2)

Week 8: October 20 at Wyoming

The casual and foolish observer may assume that Wyoming is doomed this year.

The Cowboys face the departure of quarterback Josh Allen, who was selected 7th overall in the NFL Draft, and turn to junior quarterback Nick Smith, who didn’t turn any heads in relief when Allen was sidelined with an injury for two games. In fact, the Pokes lost both of those games.

Those casual and foolish observers are missing the real story. Allen was straight up awful at times last season, but Craig Bohl’s Cowboys’ success was never predicated on Allen, or the offense for that matter. The Cowboys win with a terrifyingly efficient defense.

By the numbers, Wyoming was the fifth-best pass defense in the nation last year, allowing only 160.7 yards per game, and the 13th-best scoring defense, allowing 17 points per game. They thrived on creating turnovers, grabbing 16 interceptions and 14 recovered fumbles.

It was no different against the Aggies last year. A dud performance by Kent Myers forced Wells’ hand, inserting Love into the fray with limited experience, and the Wyoming secondary feasted on him, picking him off three times enroute to spoiling USU’s homecoming, 28-23.

Love did a great deal of maturing over the course of last season, so don’t expect it to be business as usual for the Pokes. This one will likely be a low-scoring affair and a close one at that. Give me the Aggies by less than five.

Winner: Utah State (5-2)

Week 9: October 27 vs New Mexico

In recent history, it would be fair to say that the Lobos’ elevation from the bottom of the MWC has been more about the inclusion of worse teams than anything else.

Back in 2012, head coach Bob Davie had a stinking mess to clean up at UNM in the wake of former head coach Mike Locksley, who compiled a 2-26 record in two and a half years and had multiple off-field issues. Davie managed to make the program something to be taken seriously again with a bowl win over UT-San Antonio in 2016 but took a step back last year with a 3-9 season.

To make it even harder in 2018, quarterback Lamar Jordan left for the pros, leaving a sophomore with less than a 50% completion percentage to replace. Davie’s also in hot water after he was suspended for 30 days by the university in the wake of numerous assault allegations towards his players. Investigation is ongoing, and certainly administrators at Utah State can attest that these don’t end prettily.

The Lobos look primed to continue their tailspin in 2018. Don’t expect the Aggies to accompany them. Bowl eligibility comes earlier than usual this year for Utah State.

Winner: Utah State (6-2)

Week 10: November 3 at Hawai’i

It’s been a while since Hawai’i was proper good at football. The days of the Warriors wrecking the old BCS are a distant memory.

Since the U of H joined the Mountain West in 2012, they’ve only averaged 3.6 wins per season and have only nine conference wins, having gone winless in MWC twice in that span. After last year’s 3-9 campaign, quarterback Dru Brown left for Oklahoma State as a grad transfer, and running back Diocemy Saint Juste graduated. Just like that, Hawai’i lost 4,295 yards of offense from a team that was underperforming already.

The only thing that would play into the Warriors hands in this matchup is home-field advantage, which is a much bigger deal for Hawai’i than any other team in the NCAA. The Warriors have a .305 winning percentage overall since 2012, but that percentage jumps over 10 percent at home.

Expect the Aggies to take care of business and fill Snapchat with beach selfies.

Winner: Utah State (7-2)

Week 11: November 10 vs San Jose State

Does anyone really think that the Aggies are going to blow Senior Night against arguably the worst team in the country?

Due to its front-heavy home slate, Utah State’s final home game of the season comes two weeks for the end of the regular season. Athletic Director John Hartwell and the scheduling committee made up for it with a fine treat for the departing seniors: the second-worst team in the country, per SportsNation’s S+P rankings.

San Jose State has struggled epically in the past few seasons, but could be on its way up. After a 2-10 debacle in 2017, core pieces of the offense return to give the Spartans a hopeful boost. The Spartans 90 percent returning production on offense is fifth in the country.

It’s going to take a good few seasons to get SJSU going anywhere. The Spartans looked lost in last year’s 61-10 rout against the Aggies in San Jose, and that was before the change was made at quarterback for Utah State.

USU should expect a hair more competition from the Spartans this time around, but the story won’t change. Love won’t have to play all four quarters of this one.

THIS. IS. NOT. SPARTA.

Winner: Utah State (8-2)

Week 12: November 17 at Colorado State

Colorado State has had some great years in the Mountain West in the last five years. This doesn’t look like it will be one of them.

The Rams had the best of the Aggies last year, handing them a 27-14 loss in arguably the lowest point of the year for Utah State’s offensive identity. Colorado State went on to post a (deceptive?) 7-5 record and make it to a bowl game, losing to Marshall, 31-28. That year, the Rams depth chart skated on thin ice.

This season, the Rams look doomed to fall through that ice. Per Connelly, no team in the entire FBS has less RP than Colorado State, who are ranked 129th in offensive RP and 122nd in defensive RP. They lose quarterback Nick Stevens, who threw 27 touchdowns and nearly 3,500 yards, and running back Dalyn Dawkins, a 1,300-yard rusher.

The Rams’ defense was already showing its chin in the latter part of last season, giving up 45 and 59 points to Air Force and Boise State, respectively, which led to the hiring of a new defensive coordinator that looks to switch the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

Colorado State will likely be in rebuilding mode in 2018, and they will get trucked by a Utah State team that’s ready to win now.

Winner: Utah State (9-2)

Week 13: November 24 at Boise State

Let’s be optimistic for a moment and look at the good of this game in 2018 between the Aggies and the rival Boise State Broncos.

If everything goes right for Utah State leading up to this matchup, plus some extra help in the top tiers of the West region, this game could have a Mountain West Conference title at stake between two teams undefeated in conference play. (Utah State’s schedule is THAT good.) If that were to be the case, expect some real fire in the eyes of Utah State, who not only get the chance at a championship, but also a chance to steal it right out of the hands of the biggest bully in the conference.

The Aggies aren’t always getting trounced by the Broncos. Their most recent victory, a 52-26 spectacle that USU fans will never forget, was only three years ago.

Now, back to being honest, this is when Utah State will get shot out of the sky.

The Broncos are the frontrunner candidates, as usual, to bust into the New Year’s Six bowl category, supported by a talented and experienced quarterback in Brett Rypien and a better-than-usual defense.

Across the board, Boise State is considered a top-25 team or on the fringes thereof. ESPN’s Football Power Index favors the Broncos by over 70 percent in every matchup they have this season except for Oklahoma State.

Boise State’s grip on the Mountain Region is tighter than ever. Add in that this game is on the “blue football field from hell”, and it’s likely that the Aggies experience a humbling end to the regular season.

Winner: Boise State (9-3)

Final Result: 9-3, 6-1 in MWC

The Aggies end their regular schedule with an 8-3 mark and bowl eligibility, and Wells gains some serious job security with the best season of his head coaching career.

The Aggies well-practiced offense will pose a serious challenge to any bowl opponent, while the defense will get plenty of time to figure out its identity.

Restoration will be the theme for fans of Utah State this year, and the Aggies have their best chance yet to look like the Utah State teams of the Gary Anderson era. Just by winning the games that they are supposed to win, the Aggies would take a big step forward.

By doing a little bit more than the norm, USU can accomplish something special.