Preview – Utah State vs. Air Force
We’ve seen this before.
In 2016, like this season, Utah State entered Mountain West play with a 2-1 record after encouraging wins over Weber State and Arkansas State to start the season. Even with a blowout loss to USC, hope was still high that USU could contend in the MW.
They finished 3-9.
That year, Air Force was the beginning of the end. A demoralizing 24-17 loss sent the the Aggies into a tailspin, starting a stretch of eight losses in nine games. It was a near-death blow to the program, which has slowly clawed its way back into MW relevance.
Now, Utah State has a chance to flip the script. After hanging tough at Michigan State and destroying both New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech at home, the belief that Utah State could make some noise in the MW this year has grown strong. But belief alone meant nothing in 2016. To captivate Aggie fans, USU must fulfill the potential. In terms of qualifying for a bowl game this season, Saturday’s game is not of the “must win” variety. In terms of having fans buy back into the program, it probably is.
That’s a lot of pressure on the team, but USU is set up well to capitalize on the opportunity. Through three games, Utah State ranks 23rd in the country with only 3.3 yards allowed per rush on defense. 42 different plays have recorded a tackle on the season for USU. Defensively, this Aggie defense is a lot better suited to stop Air Force than the one that allowed over 400 rushing yards in USU’s 38-35 loss to the Falcons last season.
Plus, the Aggie offense has shown that it’s probably better than the unit that dropped 500 yards and 35 points on Air Force in only 22 minutes of possession. Six different running backs for USU are averaging over four yards per carry to start the season. 16 different players have hauled in a pass so far, and nine of those group are averaging over 10 yards per reception. Tennessee Tech might not be the most formidable opponent, but teams don’t score 70 points in any game without fielding an effective offense.
To say the least, Utah State is vastly improved from previous seasons. What will decide this game is how much Air Force has improved. Last year was the Falcons’ second-lowest win total since 2006, and a lot of the offensive production is now gone. Of the top three rushers for AF last season, only one returns, and that’s QB Arion Worthman, who has largely been kept off the field by sophomore QB Isaiah Sanders. As such, the offense has only been serviceable. Air Force’s current average of 4.1 yards per attempt would be the program’s lowest mark for a season since 1997.
In simplified terms, the defense must be Air Force’s calling card this season. So far, the unit has largely delivered. The Falcons rank second in the country in opponent rush yards per game and fourth in opponent yards per rush. In the season opener versus Stony Brook, AF allowed an incredible 75 yards of total offense. The Falcons have the defensive talent to keep them in almost every game they’ll play this season.
Against FAU, that wasn’t enough for Air Force, however. The Owls couldn’t run the ball for the entire game, amassing only 54 rushing yards on 29 carries. Through the air, the Owls vastly outperformed the Falcons. FAU completed 33 of 40 passes for 471 yards with three touchdowns, all with a freshman quarterback in his second career start. Air Force’s secondary was a troubling unit last season, and it appears the offseason did little to quell such concerns.
The Falcons have had an extra week to prepare for Utah State’s passing attack, but head coach Troy Calhoun hasn’t proved the extra week makes a ton of difference, as he’s gone only 4-5 in such games since 2010. Jordan Love and the rest of the Aggie offense should still find plenty of opportunity to pick apart the Air Force secondary, and the Falcon offense should struggle to replicate the success against a revamped Aggie defense.
Playing from behind has never been Air Force’s strong suit. The Falcons’ initiative is to continue to run the ball until a defense tires. Falling behind by two scores early removes that as an option. Last season, Air Force averaged 78 rushing attempts and 446 rushing yards per game in wins compared to only 53 rushing attempts and 206 rushing yards per game in losses. Get up early on the Falcons and the odds of a victory increase exponentially.
Utah State is built well to accomplish that on Saturday. The Aggies are favored by ESPN’s FPI projections in every game until late November. All the Aggies have to do for a magical season in the MW is to fulfill that potential, starting on Saturday night at Maverik Stadium.