Preview – Utah State vs. UNLV
It’s a straight shot from here to bowl eligibility.
Even the most optimistic fans weren’t fully expecting Utah State to stand at 4-1 entering the stretch run of Mountain West play. An early season schedule comprising Michigan State, Air Force, and BYU served to temper expectations for USU heading into the year.
But this Aggie team is better than anyone could have expected.
USU’s current average of 50.2 points per game would shatter the all-time school record, set at 38.7 all the way back in 1961. The Aggies’ mark of 457.6 yards per game is tantalizingly close to the record set it 2012 of 469.8 yards per game. USU has even managed to create their own luck as well, ranking in the top 10 in the nation with an average turnover margin of +1.2 turnovers per game. Add in the fact that the defense currently sits in the top 25 in the country for both opponent yards per rush and yards per play, and Utah State can thoroughly dominate an opponent, as we saw last week at BYU.
As an Aggie fan well aware of Utah State’s history, it feels dangerous to admit that the Aggies shouldn’t run into any stumbling blocks before USU travels in late November to take on Boise State, but that is exactly where we currently stand. In a down year for much of the MW, the Aggies are positioned to blaze through most of the conference schedule, including this Saturday versus UNLV.
At one point in time, the Rebels posed a threat to Utah State. Sandwiched between games at BYU and Wyoming, there was certainly a chance that an upstart UNLV team could pose a major problem for the Aggies. RB Lexington Thomas is arguably the conference’s best running back, and QB Armani Rogers gashed USU for 75 rushing yards last season before exiting with an injury. UNLV led 28-14 at one point in that game, before the Aggies responded with 38 unanswered points.
But Rogers is currently out with a broken toe, and the rest of the Rebels struggled without him in a 50-14 loss to New Mexico at home. Sophomore QB Max Gilliam went a mere 15 of 35 for 123 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. That’s possibly better than one would have expected from Rogers throwing the ball, but Gilliam offers little to no ability to run the ball, which is where Rogers and the rest of the UNLV offense typically earns their keep. Even Thomas struggled versus New Mexico, at least to an extent. The senior phenom garnered only six carries for the game (which he still took for 36 yards), due in large part to a perceived lack of effort according to head coach Tony Sanchez. With the offense in disarray, an already vulnerable defense succumbed to an incredibly flawed New Mexico team.
Put in more casual terms, New Mexico came off a 52-43 loss at home to Liberty to dismantle UNLV on the road 50-14. That, in and of itself, is as apt of a description of the state of UNLV football as anything else. The Rebels are in a bad place.
New Mexico wide receiver Elijah Lilly (19) reaches out before making a catch and running for a touchdown against coverage from UNLV Rebels linebacker Javin White during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 6, 2018, in Las Vegas.(Erik Verduzco/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)
All that is not to say that this game is an absolute gimme for Utah State. As any Aggie fan of recent memory can attest, USU has occasionally struggled with asserting themselves against inferior competition. The cause for Utah State’s recent downturn in annual wins output hasn’t been that USU has struggled against elite competition, as the Aggies have always struggled versus such opponents. It’s been the Aggies’ increasing tendency to play down to an opponent’s level.
If any Aggie team has the ability to buck that trend, however, it’s this year’s. Utah State is currently averaging +18.8 points per game in scoring margin, topping even the 2012’s squad of +18.6 average margin per game. The Aggies aren’t simply beating opponents. They’re demolishing them. Of Utah State’s four victories this season, two rank in the top 25 of the most lopsided victories in Aggie history. Even against BYU, Utah State’s 25-point victory was the largest victory for USU in the series since 1968. Furthermore, the Aggies have dominated at the start of each half this season, highlighting the coaching strategies of head coach Matt Wells and his staff. In the first and third quarters this year, Utah State has outscored opponents 61-16 and 66-22, respectively.
We should see much of the same on Saturday versus UNLV. A Rebel squad without one of its chief playmakers is in major chaos, and the Aggies are certainly positioned well to capitalize. With an extra day to prepare, and all units of the team in high gear, expect Utah State to further distance themselves from much of their MW competition.