Mountain West Roundup – Week 7
Welcome to this week’s Mountain West Roundup! At the halfway point of the season for most teams, we’re switching our focus a little bit. We already know what most teams are like by this point. In other words, we know that Fresno State is good and we know that San Jose State isn’t. Given that, there’s not much “new” information that we learn about each team each week from here on out. What we can learn about, however, is how each game shapes the bowl picture for the MW as a whole.
Here’s the situation. With the collapse of the Poinsettia Bowl, the MW has only five concrete bowl tie-ins: the Las Vegas Bowl, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the Arizona Bowl, the New Mexico Bowl, and the Hawaii Bowl. The conference also has a conditional tie-in with the Cheez-It Bowl if the bowl is not already filled by Big 12 and Pac 12 teams. The conference has at least five bowl slots, with a chance at six. The problem is that the MW has had at least six bowl eligible teams in every season since 2013. There could be an issue with finding a bowl game for every eligible team in the conference. In preparation for that scenario, we’ll be taking a look at each team’s bowl chances each week.
Air Force – at San Diego State (L 21-17)
The Falcons always seem to have at least one game each season where they surprise everyone with a marquee victory. They almost got in on Friday at San Diego State before the Aztecs pulled ahead late. It was a near-miss for Air Force to both send the conference into upheaval and grab a much-needed victory towards bowl eligibility. Six games remain for AF, including games versus Army and Boise State, and the Falcons need four of them to reach the postseason.
Boise State – at Nevada (W 31-27)
The Broncos look less and less impervious with each passing week. Yes, Boise State escaped Reno with a victory, but it was ugly and it was motivation for every team left on BSU’s schedule. QB Brett Rypien threw three interceptions, and despite out-gaining Nevada by 120 yards, the Broncos let Nevada hang around until the very end. The problem for Boise State is that a lot of teams still to play are much more talented than Nevada, and they all now know that the Broncos are very much beatable.
Colorado State – vs New Mexico (W 20-18)
A strong candidate for the worst game in the conference this week, CSU squeezed by New Mexico on a last-second field goal. The Rams did sustain several long drives, however, including a 16-play, 96-yard drive for a touchdown in the second quarter that put CSU up 14-0. That highlights Colorado State’s issues this season, though. The Rams are talented, at least relative to some MW teams like New Mexico, but the Rams cannot piece it all together. That makes CSU a dangerous team the rest of the way. If things click, Colorado State could surprise anybody in the conference.
New Mexico – at Colorado State (L 20-18)
The Lobos’ stay atop the division standings was short-lived, as we all expected. That aside, New Mexico really needed a win versus Colorado State. Three wins short of bowl eligibility, New Mexico faces a ridiculous schedule the rest of the way: versus Fresno State, at Utah State, vs San Diego State, at Air Force, vs Boise State, vs Wyoming. Unfortunately for the citizens of Albuquerque, the Lobos probably aren’t finding three wins in there.
Wyoming – at Fresno State (L 27-3)
At 2-5, the Cowboys can survive only one more loss before their bowl eligibility goes on life support. Even at home, it’s more likely than not that playing Utah State will do just that, meaning Wyoming will have to meander through games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Air Force, and New Mexico without a single loss. Possible? Certainly. But for a team currently averaging only 15.4 points per game, and allowing an average of 25.7 points per game? That becomes much less likely.
Fresno State – vs Wyoming (W 27-3)
Fresno State made Wyoming’s offense look like Nevada, and it wasn’t a good thing for the Cowboys. A week after holding Nevada’s high-powered offense to only three points, the Bulldogs achieved the same goal against Wyoming’s hapless offense. The Bulldogs might be the most underrated Group of 5 team in the country, and they will have their say in the MW title race. A few more games remain before FSU plays a meaningful MW game. The downside for Fresno State when that arrives will be playing at Boise State on a short week, followed immediately by the most important West Division game of the season: a home game versus San Diego State.
Hawaii – at BYU (L 49-23)
Hawaii has faults. We just didn’t know they were of the give-up-49-points-to-one-of-the-worst-offenses-in-the-country variety. If QB Cole McDonald doesn’t have this offense firing on all cylinders, then Hawaii stands little chance to stay competitive in games. Even at 6-2, the Rainbow Warriors still need one more win to become bowl eligible because of their 13-game regular season schedule, but they should meet that threshold. Games at home versus Nevada and UNLV still remain, though it’s tough to see Hawaii taking any other game on their schedule. In short, Hawaii seems destined for the Hawaii Bowl this season.
Nevada – vs Boise State (L 31-27)
In Nevada’s quest to return to the level of the conference’s elite, this was a very encouraging game for the Wolf Pack. In terms of Nevada’s quest for a bowl game, it’s not that important. At least outside of the locker room, this was a predetermined loss for Nevada, and games versus Hawaii, Colorado State, San Jose State, and UNLV still remain. That is where the Wolf Pack’s season will rise or fall, but it’s most likely to rise if they play like they did on Saturday.
San Diego State – vs Air Force (W 21-17)
The Aztecs have yet to score more than 28 points in a game this season. Most teams with that factoid struggle mightily. SDSU is now 5-1. Call it clutch or call it luck, but the Aztecs have it. The question is whether that luck/clutch will run out in the next few weeks. SDSU theoretically should beat every team on their schedule besides maybe Fresno State. But the Aztecs have been walking on a knife’s edge this entire season and eventually, it’ll cut.
San Jose State – vs Army (L 52-3)
Every week, one team’s recap can be summed up as “oh dear.” This week, it’s San Jose State (again). The Spartans have shown promise in recent weeks staying competitive versus Hawaii and Colorado State, but ran into an absolute buzzsaw of an Army team (Army is 4-2 with losses to only Duke and Oklahoma, so they’re pretty good). Progress for SJSU can be defined as winning at least one game this season, and if I’m SJSU, I’m circling that home matchup versus UNLV in two weeks.
UNLV – at Utah State (L 59-28)
Without QB Armani Rogers, UNLV faces a tough challenge to reach six wins and a bowl, but backup Max Gilliam actually showed some promise in the second half versus the Aggies. Not enough to threaten San Diego State or Fresno State, of course, but enough to perhaps hang with Air Force, San Jose State, Hawaii, and Nevada. The tricky part for the Rebels is that they’ll need to win all of those, assuming they lose to both SDSU and FSU, in order to make a bowl. That’s a tough ask for a team that’s given up 50 points in consecutive weeks.