College football playoff contenders and pretenders
What a weird season this has been in college football. I feel like I’m in a time machine or something, is this 2007? For those of you who might not remember, 2007 was labeled the ‘year of upsets’ and the ‘curse of the number two’. But the football was far from crappy from an entertainment standpoint, as there were seven different No. 1 ranked teams during the season, and the second ranked team lost seven times in just the final nine weeks alone. All of this culminating into a masterpiece of drama in the final two weeks of the regular season, where both the No. 1 and 2 ranked teams lost in back to back weeks.
While there hasn’t been quite the same amount of chaos yet, I have a feeling that we are heading in a similar direction. There have already been 13 top 10 teams which have lost this season, including five of them coming in the last two Saturdays. Which leads me to the real point I’m trying to make here; who’s good? If the playoff started tonight, would you feel confident enough in the four teams you picked to wager a week’s pay on them? Well, I guess if you’re a college student, that’s like 47 dollars so why not. But, I think the point has been made. Who do we think is good?
To make this a little simpler, I’ve broken it down into three categories: The undefeated, the contenders, and the might be goods. Then there is basically everyone else, which, I promise this isn’t out of laziness, because you’d have to be a clairvoyant to tell me a clear reason why Iowa is better than Oklahoma. Sorry Hawkeyes Fans.
Let’s start by working our way from the bottom of the rankings, to the top shall we.
The Might be Goods
Honestly, I don’t think any of these teams have a realistic shot to make the playoffs. Each one of these programs have major question marks that lead me to believe they won’t get in. The one scenario in which they might sneak in would be if there is some cataclysmic series of events that transpires, where everyone in the top five loses and one of these teams gets hot at the right time. But nonetheless, let’s try to make a case for in their favor.
Florida
Florida might be the most likely of the three to make it to the playoff when you look at their schedule through the rest of the season. They have a huge matchup with Georgia this Saturday which could eliminate them immediately with a loss. But if they can get passed arguably the best team in the SEC East, they set themselves up handsomely. Their next four games following that consist of Missouri, South Carolina, Idaho, and Florida State. These schools have a combined record of 14-13. The problem with Florida is they have no offense. They rank 63rd in the nation in total offense and 89th in passing offense. And while their defense has come up big in games like the LSU game, they give up 154.7 ypg on the ground, which ranks 57th in the county. I think Florida falls into the category of teams that aren’t very good, but if they are still in it late, they can will their way to a playoff berth. I don’t see that happening against, say, Alabama in the SEC championship game.
AP Photo/Brandon Wade Oklahoma running back Kennedy Brooks (26) battles past TCU linebacker Garret Wallow (30) to score a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018, in Fort Worth, Texas. Oklahoma won 52-27. (AP Photo/Brandon Wade)
Oklahoma
Same could be said about you Sooners fans. If any of you have watched an Oklahoma game in recent history and covered the opponents score the whole game, you’d probably think, “Wow, this team is electric. They must be the best team in the country.” Well, the Big 12 is notorious for having poor defenses, and the best team in the league may just have the worst defense of all of them. Does that make sense to anyone? Oklahoma ranks ninth in the Big 12 in total defense, just in front of Texas Tech who is dead last. I know what you’re thinking. And yes, you’re correct, Kansas has a better defense than Oklahoma. Last year Oklahoma did make it to the playoffs, and they had the first overall selection in the NFL draft, Heisman trophy winning quarterback Baker Mayfield. In that game, Oklahoma was up 31-17 at half, out-passed Georgia, had more possession than Georgia, had more total yards than Georgia, and only had one turnover all game. They played almost flawlessly on offense. And yet, they lost 54-48 in double OT to a true freshman-led Georgia offense. Need I say more?
UCF
Ok let me be clear, I think there is absolutely no chance UCF makes it to the playoff. Their strength of schedule is horrendous, they will have no key wins of any importance at the end of the season, and their defense is not nearly as good as last year when they still had NFL players Mike Hughes and Shaquem Griffin. I put them up here because they interest me. I love their offense, they rank 3rd in scoring and 4th in yards per game. Quarterback Mckenzie Milton is an absolute playmaker. He was recruited to run Oregon’s high-tempo offense when Scott Frost was still there, so picture that guy going up against the competition in the AAC every week. They even impressed me with their win over Auburn last year in the Peach Bowl, which leads me to believe there’s a decent chance if they run the table, they could upset another Power 5 team in a big bowl game. But, I don’t think they are going to repeat as National Champions. Google it for a good laugh.
The Contenders
All six of these teams have a realistic chance to make it to the playoff in my eyes. One of these teams is even in the top four right now, that being LSU. But all of them have one piece of their puzzle that just doesn’t line up with the rest of it.
Michigan
Take Michigan, for example. Their defense is nasty. They rank 4th in scoring defense, 1st in opponents ypg, and 2nd in punts per score. They only allowed 30 points combined in their two toughest matchups this season with Notre Dame and Wisconsin. Not to mention allowing 24th ranked Michigan State to 7 points on the road last weekend. But they might have the toughest schedule to finish out the season out of anyone in college football. They still have two big matchups with top 25 teams, those being Penn State, and Ohio State. With their offense being as it is, it’s really going to be questionable whether they can win any of those games. They rush for 212.8 ypg, so getting the run game shouldn’t be a huge concern, but their rushing attack is out-gaining their pass offense which only throws for 207.6 ypg. Shea Patterson has had his struggles this year fitting into the offense, but if he can manage the game like he did last week against Michigan State, they have a shot to be in every game. Which makes the matchup with Ohio State on Thanksgiving weekend one you have to circle on your calendar, it could act as a play-in game for the playoff.
AP Photo/Michael Conroy Ohio State wide receiver Binjimen Victor (9) drops a catch in front of Purdue cornerback Tim Cason (24) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in West Lafayette, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
Ohio State
Speak of the devil, Ohio State is a team that really intrigues me. They’re second in the nation with 558.8 ypg, but only 172.0 of that comes from the ground. How many yards a game do they pass for? Ok so let’s get our calculators out, one second, punching in the numbers… 386.0? Yes, as strange as it is to see, the Buckeyes offense has absolutely exploded under Dwayne Haskins and turned into a Mike Leach air-raid offense circa 2008 Big 12. Haskins has already thrown for 30 touchdowns and 2801 yards, good enough for first and third in the nation. But on the other side of the ball they give up 391.6 ypg, that’s 61st in the nation, as well as 22.9 ppg. However, last weekend’s blowout loss against Purdue has been a major problem of theirs, almost mirroring their loss to Iowa last year. I mean that was ugly. It looks like the polls would agree, as they dropped them nine spots all the way down to 11th in the AP. On the brightside Buckeyes fans, even in a loss, Dwayne Haskins threw for 470 yards. But this came on 73 attempts, which shows how out-of-sorts their team was once they were down a few scores. Ohio State will be able to keep themselves in any game because of their offense. But, as we saw last week with Purdue, if a team is able to put up a good fight, the Buckeyes are susceptible to a loss. Seriously guys, you’re going to want to watch the Michigan, Ohio State game.
Texas
Following the Texas Longhorns is like being in a relationship with someone that goes to all your family parties with you, is cool around your friends, but also cheats on you two or three times a year. You like her so much during the good times you stay with her, but you have no idea why she keeps cheating on you, and she claims she has no idea either. With wins against TCU and Oklahoma already this year, they are in a good position to win out and possibly go to the playoff. But in true Texas form, don’t be surprised if they drop one at the worst time and ruin their chances at their first bid of the college football playoff era. West Virginia this weekend will be tough, but I think we are all hoping for a rematch with Oklahoma in the Big-12 championship game a month and a half from now.
Georgia
Georgia is a tricky one to pin down. Their first real challenge of the season was two weeks ago at LSU and they got completely out-classed 36-13. Georgia couldn’t run the ball and had to lean on Jake Fromm to carry the offense which isn’t really a strength of Fromm’s at this point in his career. Their defense is solid for the most part, only giving up 19.0 ppg and 337.0 ypg, but a lot of that can be attributed to the teams they have played so far. In their first real test they let LSU run the ball for 275 yards and throw for 200 yards, and LSU doesn’t have a top-tier offense. They lost a lot from their team that went to the national title game last year, but they have a lot of potential and brought some key pieces back on offense. I think it’s too early to tell for the Bulldogs, but this weekend’s matchup with Florida will be a great game to try and bounce-back and get their season back on track.
AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (22) runs the ball during an NCAA college football game against Mississippi State in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
LSU
LSU is the one team out of these five that I think can make a strong case to be in the playoff if it started today. They have one of the best defenses in the country like usual, and it even looks as if they have a formittable offense. Over the past few years, their biggest problem when going up against their toughest competition has been the fact that they can’t generate points on offense. They’ve greatly improved in that area, jumping up to 30.3 ppg which is up five points from last year. While that is impressive, they’re still far from perfect. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been an upgrade at that position compared to years past, but still isn’t the playmaker you wish you had at the position. In their one loss this season, it was the pressure put on Burrow by Florida that led him to throw two interceptions in the final two minutes. I feel like LSU is much better than Florida, and should have won that game, but if they can’t rely on their quarterback to carry them at times I don’t expect them to go very far. I guess we’ll find out how good they are November 3rd when they play Alabama in Death Valley.
Notre Dame
Now we land on Notre Dame. You’re probably thinking, “but I thought Notre Dame is undefeated, they’re ranked third, why do you have them lumped in with this group?” Because frankly, I just don’t think they’re that good. They don’t excel in any area on their team. They rank 26th in the country in opponents ypg, 18th in scoring defense, 38th in offensive ypg, and 34th in ppg. None of that excites me or gives me the impression they can pull themselves up when they’re down to a good team. Please don’t try to convince me that beating Pitt after being down 14-6 is a comeback. Because of their lack of exceptionalism they find themselves in too many close games, and that always comes back to bite a team. The one thing they have going for them is their remaining strength of schedule is terribly weak. Which means it will be up to USC, in the final week of the season, to take them out of the playoff race.
The Undefeated
These teams, as the name would suggest, have yet to lose a game. If you were to have to make a case for a team that could beat anyone in the country right now, you’d probably choose one of these two. But to be honest, that’s the biggest reason why they are separated from the next group. Because just by watching them and looking at the numbers, there isn’t a massive gap between any one of these teams and a team like LSU in my opinion. But there are a few things that stand out.
Clemson
Let’s start with Clemson. Man is the ACC bad this year. By this time last year, Clemson had already faced three ranked teams, they faced their first last weekend in NC State. That’s honestly their biggest strength, it will be incredibly easy for them to win every game on their schedule and make it to the end of the season undefeated. To be fair, their team is pretty well rounded as well. They’re scoring 41.0 ppg, while beating their opponents by an average of 26.5 ppg. Their defense is full of NFL prospects and is stingy as all hell. They have three NFL first rounders on their defensive line alone, and a cornerback also slated to go in the first round. They have an incredibly balanced offense as well. They average 521.0 ypg (8th in the nation), and split that between between 266.5.0 through the air and 254.6 on the ground. I’m not saying that Clemson is a bad team, quite the opposite, but the lack of competition on their schedule worries me come playoff time. Look at last year, they were ranked number one coming into the playoff and lost to Alabama 24-6, while only gaining 188 yards on offense. But don’t fear Tigers fans, you’ve got the chosen one Trevor Lawrence, right?
AP Photo/Wade Payne Alabama running back Josh Jacobs (8) runs for yardage as he is missed by Tennessee linebacker Quart’e Sapp (14) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 20, 2018, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
Alabama
This leads us to Alabama. For all of you college football die-hards out there, I know, I get it, I hate admitting Alabama is good as much as the next person. But they are the runaway best team at this point in the season. They are not only first in the nation in scoring (54.1 ppg), but they are seventh in scoring defense (15.9 ppg) as well. Yes, you can attribute a lot of this to their early season strength of schedule, but they do have some impressive wins so far. 62-7 over Ole Miss, who is 5-2 this season, which is nothing to scoff about. Or the blowout of Tennessee over the weekend, which ruined the Volunteers’ hopes of staying in the top 25. They’re going to be given the chance to earn their number one ranking coming into the final half of the season. With matchups against LSU, Auburn, and the winner of the SEC East in the conference title game still ahead on the schedule, there will be no doubt they are once again number one if they can win out. Much like with Ohio State, the injection of Tua Tagovailoa into their offense has completely changed the way this team operates. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is a casual 25-0, no big deal. No longer are the days where you can hope to get into a 20-17 dogfight with Alabama and make a stop on defense late to get a win. They’ll put up 30 on you by halftime and you’ll be left wondering how Alabama got away with such a crime.
Twitter: @dren_sports