Utah State offense looks to return to form against struggling Lobos
The name of the game now is “win convincingly.” At 6-1 and with a clear path to the Mountain West title game, Utah State has now entered a different game. No longer is it enough for the Aggies to win, they must win in dominant fashion.
Next week, the College Football Playoff Committee will unveil their first set of rankings for this season. Those rankings will hold sway over who may host the eventual MW title game, as well as which Group of 5 team will be selected to a New Year’s Six bowl. An immense amount of politics are involved, but those politics can have a large effect on Utah State’s postseason. USU would need a certain amount of help from AAC teams like UCF and USF in order to receive the G5 bid to a NY6 game, but it is certainly not out of the question. First and foremost, the Aggies need to take care of their own business.
That did not fully happen in Laramie, where USU grinded out a 24-16 win last Saturday. The Aggies were held to 194 total yards, their lowest offensive output since November 23, 2013. Wyoming out-gained Utah State by over 200 yards in the second half, but the Aggies managed to outlast the Cowboys thanks to several huge plays from senior linebacker Jontrell Rocquemore and sophomore wide receiver Savon Scarver. Those games will happen, and USU was strong enough to power through for a victory. That, in and of itself, is an encouraging sign for a team that will certainly still be challenged before the season ends.
But voters and rankings don’t take those “learned lessons” into account. Perhaps I sound hyperbolic in my emphasis of polls, but they could end up being the difference in Utah State going to a Vegas Bowl or (knock on wood) Fiesta Bowl instead of a Potato Bowl or New Mexico Bowl.
This week should be a chance for the Aggies’ to post a number, to borrow a golfing term. ESPN’s FPI gives Utah State over a 92 percent chance of victory on Saturday. Expected to win, no one would bat an eye were the Aggies to win by 14 points on Saturday, but no one would be impressed either. To do that, USU would need to stretch that margin into the high 20s or 30s.
That kind of result is likely versus a New Mexico team that has floundered in recent weeks. The Lobos started the season 3-2 and looked to be a surprise bowl team in the MW, but two straight losses to Colorado State and Fresno State have reverted the Lobos’ trajectory back to its preseason projection. New Mexico’s last five opponents of the season are currently a combined 22-14, and that includes a game versus a 2-6 Wyoming squad that will present a serious challenge for New Mexico. At 3-4, the Lobos would be incredibly lucky to make a bowl game.
The defense has done the Lobos in this season. New Mexico has allowed 32 points per game this season, already well below average, but that mark becomes even worse considering that New Mexico has played only two offenses who rank in the top 50 in the nation for scoring offense. Opponents have amassed over 500 yards of offense already three times versus New Mexico (Utah State has yet to allow any team to gain 500 or more yards this season).
Normally, that type of defensive ineptitude would indicate an offense capable of keeping a team in a game, but outside of two outlier games versus Incarnate Word and Liberty, the Lobos have averaged only 323.4 yards per game. In short, the Lobos are struggling on both sides of the ball. Partnered with an off season probe into misconduct that resulted in a suspension, head coach Bob Davies’ seat is getting awfully warm.
The fact of the matter is that Utah State holds a positional advantage nearly everywhere on the field. Whereas Wyoming’s recent success has allowed the Cowboys to field a talented team littered with NFL prospects, New Mexico continually struggles to do the same, and such a situation lends itself to years where the team struggles to match the physicality and talent of its MW opponents.
Darwin Thompson is going up against a lackluster rush defense. Jordan Love is facing a much less talented secondary and pass rush than last week, and the receivers should both create and utilize much more space than against Wyoming. Tipa Galeai and the defensive front seven should continue the strong play we saw from Laramie. An opportunistic secondary should find even more opportunities against an offense with a penchant for losing the ball. All match ups point to Utah State returning to form with a dominant performance.
The voters will expect nothing less.