Conference Realignment: How could it impact Utah State?

The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns are on the move. The two teams have decided to withdraw from the Big 12 conference and have formally applied for membership in the SEC. 

Thus, for the first time in over a decade, conference realignment season is in full swing.

Conference realignments are volatile and unpredictable enough without two of the nation’s premier athletic programs deciding to change conferences without warning. The impact it will have on Utah State could range from minimal to cataclysmic change — altering the future of Aggie athletics, for better or worse.

Texas and Oklahoma could move to the SEC and that could be it. The Big 12 could settle at eight for now, add teams from the American Athletic conference, leaving USU and the Mountain West conference unfazed. 

Or, the Big 12 could look elsewhere for members or disband entirely, triggering a massive domino effect that could directly impact Utah State. Let’s take a glance at some of the most drastic possibilities. 

Best Case Scenario 

One option is the creation of a new conference. San Diego State’s student section, The Show, floated the idea of top teams from the Mountain West combining with remaining Big 12 teams to form a new power conference in the west. They said, “SDSU, Colorado State, Utah State, and BYU should all be on the phone with the remaining Big 12 teams …” 

SDSU, Colorado State, Boise State, Utah State, and BYU should all be on the phone with the remaining Big 12 teams trying to form a western American conference.

— The Show (@TheShowSDSU) July 23, 2021

This could actually work. Currently, the west has only one Power Five conference — the Pac 12 — one Group of Five conference — the Mountain West. The other major conferences are all based out of the east coast, midwest, or south. This could be a great opportunity for another west coast conference to arise. 

If the Big 12 disbands or falls apart, it would leave teams from Texas all the way to West Virginia searching for a new home.

Geography rules out some of the Big 12 teams. For instance, West Virginia would be better off trying to find a home in the ACC or Big Ten. The same goes for Iowa State who could try to join their in-state rival, Iowa, in the Big Ten.

But other Big 12 schools such as Oklahoma State and Texas Tech could be left in a position where combining with the best Group of Five schools out west is their best option. 

Displaced Big 12 teams aren’t the only teams to consider. BYU and other western high mid-majors such as Houston or SMU are becoming increasingly competitive and are located in valuable recruiting and television markets. They could be great additions to a new conference if available and willing. 

This theoretical conference could then include Utah State, Baylor, Boise State, BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, San Diego State, TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. While maybe not necessarily a power conference, it could be a relevant contender in football, and a powerhouse in basketball. 

Of course, all this assumes minimal Pac-12 involvement. According to the Los Angeles Times, new Pac-12 commissioner George Klavkoff is attentive to what’s happening but not overly concerned.

“We do not think expansion is required to continue to compete and to thrive,” he said. “That said, the fallout from Texas and Oklahoma gives an opportunity to once again consider expansion. We’ve already had significant inbound interest from other schools. We will work with our chancellors and presidents to evaluate these opportunities.” 

If the Pac-12 sees this as an opportunity to realign, expect it to go after some of the aforementioned Big 12 schools. 

If creating an all-new conference is too ambitious, the Mountain West could always just expand or realign. In an official statement, the Mountain West said they “immediately engaged when we became aware of the potential for conference realignment … Our intent is to actively appraise various scenarios, identify potential opportunities and take actions which can positively impact the trajectory of the conference and our member institutions.” 

The conference will do what it can to bring in potential new members. TCU and BYU were two of the original members of the Mountain West and could return if others came with them. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Baylor would be a major upgrade. This could be a great thing for Utah State athletics because it would put them in a better conference that could potentially secure a bigger television deal. 

Worst Case Scenario 

While being included in any major reconstruction would be a huge step in the right direction, not being included would be an equally significant step in the wrong one.

Left with eight schools, the Big 12 could try and keep up with the 16-team SEC and 14-team Big Ten by expanding. 

In this case, it’s extremely unlikely Utah State would be included in a straight-up Big 12 expansion. But some of Utah State’s conference peers which are bigger markets or have more notoriety — such as Colorado State, Air Force, Boise State and San Diego State — could receive invitations, and the Aggies would get left behind. 

If this were to happen, the Mountain West would have no choice but to retool. The best bet would be snatching up Texas schools in Conference USA. Rice, North Texas, or even UTEP could be considered. This would be a drastic downgrade for the Mountain West, and being stuck in that conference would not be a great situation for the Aggies. 

Being a relatively small school in a small market, Utah State may not be in the best place if a major realignment happens. But the university has great leaders in President Noelle Cockett, athletic director John Hartwell, and assistant athletic director Jerry Bovee. Trust the leadership to keep the university’s best interests in mind and develop a plan that keeps the Aggie’s athletic program in good shape.