How statistics can forecast “Snowmageddon”
When enough snow accumulates, its weight can pose a risk to the stability of buildings. Too much snow, and it might turn into what Brennan Bean calls “Snowmageddon.”
Bean, a statistician and assistant professor at Utah State University, will give a Science Unwrapped talk about snow statistics on Jan. 20 at 7 p.m. in the Eccles Science Learning Center.
“Predicting Snowmageddon: Using Data Science to Design Against Disaster” is about how statistics can assist in preventing a winter calamity.
“I think about problems where the location of the measurement matters,” Bean said during a virtual interview. “Just like the actual measurement matters. There’s a lot of problems where we don’t really care where the data was taken, we just want to know what the value was.”
Bean said measuring snow in Logan is different than at Beaver Mountain, and it is important to know the geographical differences.
“That applies not only to the snow problem that I’ll be talking about with Science Unwrapped, but with agriculture and climate and water resource management,” Bean said.
Bean said Snowmageddon is “the storm that we have not seen, but that we might one day see if the perfect conditions exist for it to happen.”
“I got that term from a storm that happened, I believe it was 2010, in the Washington, D.C., Virginia area,” Bean said. “They had two storms that were within a week or two of each other.”
The snow from the first storm had not melted by the time the second storm began.
“It caused kind of like, societal chaos in terms of the disruption to power, to roads to a few buildings in terms of collapses, but mostly to power and transportation,” Bean said.
Mary-Ann Muffoletto, the public relations specialist for USU’s College of Science, serves on the Science Unwrapped committee.
“The amount of snow that buildings can handle without collapsing,” Muffoletto said. “This information is used to determine construction standards — safety standards — for buildings.”
Bean and his students study these snow loads.
“I think that we all need to be aware of our environment and changes in the climate,” Muffoletto said. “And certainly, we want to live and work in safe buildings. So, this is an opportunity to understand how science and engineering are used to determine the standards that provide us with safe places.”
Muffoletto said this information can benefit everyday people, not just scientists.
“People are intimidated by science,” Muffoletto said. “They think it’s only for geniuses, and that’s not the case. Science is for everyone. And it’s important to have an understanding of science.”
Muffoletto said Science Unwrapped talks usually last around 30 minutes and they are followed by the opportunity to engage in hands-on learning activities.
“Science Unwrapped is designed for all ages,” Muffoletto said in a virtual interview. “The only requirement is an interest in science.”
Bean said Science Unwrapped is an opportunity to get a high level of understanding about a broad set of topics in a way that is accessible and easy to understand.
“There’s so much information out there in every discipline,” Bean said, “and a lot of that is tucked away in these peer-reviewed journal articles that are meant for technical audiences.”
In his talk, Bean plans on discussing the data science lifecycle.
“This idea that data has a lifetime and that we need to appreciate each phase of its life,” Bean said. “Not just the end report.”
Bean teaches an intro-level class called Foundations of Data Science.
“I feel really strongly that basic data literacy is becoming as important as reading and writing is,” Bean said. “That in order to navigate our modern world, we have to understand at least at a basic level how data is used to craft our decisions.”