AFC Championship preview: Broncos vs. Patriots
As football fans, we have a special treat this year in the AFC Championship with the Broncos and the Patriots. Two of the best quarterbacks in NFL history in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will be squaring off in what could be their last head-to-head playoff matchup against each other. Despite this epic quarterback matchup, this game will be won or lost by each quarterback’s respective teams. Because of this, I will take an objective look at how each team matches up to each other in all the phases of the game.
– Patriots pass offense vs. Broncos pass defense
During the season, the Patriots had the No. 10-ranked passing offense, while the Broncos were near the bottom of the league in defending the pass at No. 27. Despite pounding the ball last week against the Colts, look for the Patriots to open it up more in this game as they have a definite advantage this week, especially since the Broncos’ starting corner Chris Harris is out with a torn ACL. Advantage: Patriots
– Broncos pass offense vs. Patriots pass defense
The Broncos easily have the best passing attack in the league, averaging over 340 yards passing a game, while the Patriots rank in the bottom half of the league at No. 8 in pass defense. Peyton Manning is loaded with passing weapons in Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas. Advantage: Broncos
– Patriots run offense vs. Broncos run defense
The Patriots have a very good three-headed rushing attack spearheaded by LeGarrette Blount, but the Broncos are just as strong against the run, ranking No. 7 in the league in rushing defense. Advantage: Broncos slightly
– Broncos run offense vs. Patriots run defense
The Broncos are in the middle the league in rushing at No. 15, but the Patriots are one of the worst teams at stopping the run at No. 30. With Knowshon Moreno gaining over 200 yards the last time these two teams met, expect a heavy dose of him again this time. Advantage: Broncos
– Patriots offensive line vs Broncos pass rush
The Patriots offensive line has protected Brady well this year, ranking No. 12. in fewest sacks given up. The Broncos, even without stud pass rusher Von Miller most of this year, have been solid rushing the quarterback, ranking No. 13 in sacks. Advantage: Patriots slightly
– Broncos offensive line vs Patriots pass rush
Even without All-Pro left tackle Ryan Clady this year, the Broncos have only surrendered 20 sacks all year; best in the NFL. The Patriots on the other hand have excelled this year at sacking the opposing QB, ranking No. 5 in the league.
Advantage: Broncos slightly
– Patriots third down offense vs. Broncos third down defense
Patriots are in the middle of the NFL at No. 16 on converting third downs, while the Broncos happen to rank No. 16 in third down defense. Advantage: Neither
– Broncos third down offense vs. Patriots third down defense
Broncos are second-best in the league at converting third downs at 46 percent. The Patriots are only ranked No. 27 of getting off the field on third downs. Advantage: Broncos
– Special teams
Both teams have excellent kickers in Matt Prater and Stephen Gostkowski. Both have average punters, but Patriots punter Ryan Allen is listed as questionable. Both have great return men in Trindon Holliday and Julian Edelman. Advantage: Broncos
– Protecting the ball
The Broncos are neutral this season with a turnover differential of 0, which ranks No. 16 in the NFL. The Patriots have been great at protecting the ball with a +9 turnover differential, No. 8 in the NFL. Advantage: Patriots
– Home-field advantage
The Broncos have nearly been unbeatable this year at home at 8-1 including the playoffs, while the Patriots have been average on the road this season at 4-4. Advantage: Broncos
– Broncos vs Patriots
With the slight advantages counting as a half advantage, the Broncos clearly have the overall edge with a total of six advantages to the Patriots two-and-a-half advantages. The Broncos seem to be the better overall team, so I expect them to win on Sunday.
AFC champion: Broncos