Breaking down the MWC: An in-depth look at men’s basketball
Utah State men’s basketball is entering conference play in its inaugural season the Mountain West. With nonconference play wrapped up, we take a look at how each team in the conference has fared in nonconference play and their respective strengths and weaknesses.
Index
Sagarin rating is based off the computer formula by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today to rate teams. Ratings percentage index, or RPI, is one of the tools used by the NCAA Selection Committee to evaluate teams. Nonconference strength of schedule, or NCSOS, ranks each team’s nonconference schedule with the hardest schedules having the lowest number. Scoring margin is the average point margin between the given team and their opponents. Each team’s best and worst wins are listed and based off the Sagarin rating.
Air Force Falcons 6-5
Sagarin rating: 276 RPI: 315 NCSOS: 341 Scoring margin: -3.4 Best win: South Dakota (SR 261) Worst loss: UC Davis (SR 311)
After a successful year last season where the Falcons posted a .500 record in conference play, they will have to start from scratch this year after they lost their top six scorers from last year’s team.
The Falcons have an impressive four players averaging double figures and are led by sharpshooter and sophomore guard Tre’ Coggins, who leads the team with 16.6 points per game this year.
Looking at how they have done so far in nonconference play, it is obvious the Falcons are one the worst teams in the Mountain West. Despite having a very weak schedule, they have a -3.4 scoring margin and their best win was against measly South Dakota.
Boise State Broncos 10-3
Sagarin rating: 51 RPI: 33 NCSOS: 23 Scoring margin: 8.5 Best win: at Hawaii (89) Worst loss: Saint Mary’s (48)
Boise State looks to be one of contenders in the Mountain West this year as they bring back all five starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament a season ago.
They are led by their two dynamic guards in Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic, averaging 16.3 points per game and 19.5 points per game, respectively. Marks and Drmic were all-conference last year.
The Broncos like to run a four guard scheme with Senior Ryan Watkins patrolling the paint. While perimeter shooting is their strength, interior defense tends to be their weakness.
In very tough nonconference play, the Broncos were decent. They posted solid wins over Hawaii, South Carolina and Utah, but lost their three toughest games against Kentucky, Iowa State and Saint Mary’s.
Colorado State Rams 9-4
Sagarin rating: 137 RPI: 216 NCSOS: 296 Scoring margin: 4 Best win: New Mexico State (67) Worst loss: Denver (148)
After a hugely successful year where the Rams finished second in one of the toughest conferences in the nation, they look to rebuild after losing all five starters.
Leading the team in scoring this year is Navy transfer and forward J.J. Avila with nearly 20 points per game. Along with Avila, 6-foot-4 guard Daniel Bejarano sports an impressive double-double with 13.8 points per game and 9.6 rebounds per game. Scoring and rebounding have not been a problem for this team; they rank in the top-60 in nation in those two categories. Defense and 3-point shooting seems to be the Rams’ weakness at this point.
The Rams posted a very good win against New Mexico State this year, but that is the team’s only good win. They lost to two great teams in Colorado and Gonzaga, and lost to two average teams in UTEP and Denver.
Fresno State Bulldogs 7-6
Sagarin rating: 151 RPI: 95 NCSOS: 28 Scoring margin: -3 Best win: at UC Irvine (103) Worst loss: Drake (116)
The Bulldogs come off a disappointing year where they finished seventh in the Mountain West and below .500 overall. The team is very young and inexperienced, but it does have some talent.
Even though it lacks the experience needed to contend in the Mountain West, Fresno sports the most balanced attack of any team in the conference with five players averaging double figures in points. Their team is led by their two sophomore guards in Marvelle Harris and Cezar Guerrero with 16 and 14 points per game, respectively.
With a very tough early schedule, the Bulldogs missed their chance to get a signature win. They played six good-to-very good teams but lost all of them, highlighted by bad losses to Florida and Pittsburgh.
Nevada Wolf Pack 5-8
Sagarin rating: 199 RPI: 193 NCSOS: 161 Scoring margin: -3.2 Best win: Iona (117) Worst loss: at Cal State Bakersfield (210)
Old WAC-foe Nevada was supposed to contend in their first year in the Mountain West, but it imploded early and stumbled to a last-place finish in the conference. They lost one of their best players to graduation and had three players transfer coming into this year.
However, they do not lack star power. Senior guard Deonte Burton is one of the best guards this side of the Mississippi and leads the team with 22.5 points per game. Along with Burton is senior guard Jerry Evans, a big 3-point threat who averages 15.3 points per game. Despite having one of the top players in the conference, the Wolf Pack lacks the interior talent to seriously contend. Rebounding and passing the ball have been big issues; the Wolf Pack ranks at the bottom of the nation in rebounding and assists.
Similar to Fresno, the Wolf Pack has beaten most of the bad teams they’ve faced but haven’t had any victories over their tougher opponents.
New Mexico Lobos 9-3
Sagarin rating: 47 RPI: 50 NCSOS: 50 Scoring margin: 6.8 Best win: Cincinnati (31) Worst loss: New Mexico State (67)
The Lobos were last year’s Mountain West champions, but they were promptly upset as the No. 3 in the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos had plenty of turnover coming in to this year as head coach Steve Alford left for UCLA and conference tournament MVP Tony Snell left for the NBA Draft. Despite this, the team looks be one of contenders again this year as all-conference players Kendall Williams and Alex Kirk return.
New Mexico has easily the best “big three” in the conference, led by senior guard Williams (18.6 ppg), junior center Kirk (15.2 ppg), and senior forward Cameron Bairstow (20.1 ppg). Both Kirk and Bairstow are double-double threats each night, while Williams provides the deep threat. Rebounding is the team’s biggest strength; they rank in the top-35 in the nation. Their shooting as a whole is average at best, in the bottom 50 percent in nation.
So far, the Lobos have not proven to be an elite or top-25 team as some thought coming into the season. They had good wins against Cincinnati and New Mexico State, but they failed to play up with the big boys against UMASS and Kansas.
San Diego State Aztecs 11-1
Sagarin rating: 21 RPI: 49 NCSOS: 158 Scoring margin: 15 Best win: Kansas (7) Worst loss: Arizona (1)
The Aztecs didn’t quite live up to expectations last year, but they still won 23 games and reached the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, they lost key pieces in perimeter players Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley but have some fresh talent that should have them contend for the conference championship.
Senior guard Xavier Thames, sophomore forward Winston Shepard and Tulane transfer and senior forward Josh Davis are the key players this year for the Aztecs with 15.6, 12.9 and 9 points per game, respectively. Although their “big three” is not the most impressive, their depth is; they have seven different players averaging over seven points per game. Along with depth, this team’s strength is defense. The Lobos are the best defensive team in the conference, ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense with 52.6 points per game. Their assist totals are far from impressive though; they average only 12 per game.
The Aztecs have been the pleasant surprise in the conference so far and are the only team currently ranked nationally from the Mountain West at No. 21. They have a great win against Creighton, and their only loss is to currently No. 1 and undefeated Arizona. San Jose State Spartans 6-6
Sagarin rating: 232 RPI: 238 NCSOS: 295 Scoring margin: -2.7 Best win: Pepperdine (186) Worst loss: James Madison (250)
Joining the Mountain West at the same time as Utah State, the Spartans are in complete rebuild mode under new head coach Dave Wojcik. The team saw four players graduate and five players transfer out the past season. Because of this, this year’s team looks very green with seven true freshmen on the roster.
The Spartans are led by Rashad Muhammad, true freshman guard and brother of the NBA’s Shabazz Muhammad. He provides most of this team’s scoring punch with 17 points per game, and junior guard Jaleel Williams chips in about 12 points per game. While this team is No. 27 in the nation in rebounding, it lacks scoring and is one of the worst shooting teams in the country.
The Spartans played a rather pathetic nonconference schedule this season and lost as many games as they won. San Jose looks to be the cellar dweller of the Mountain West this year.
UNLV Rebels 9-4
Sagarin rating: 63 RPI: 100 NCSOS: 93 Scoring margin: 11.3 Best win: Nebraska-Omaha (112) Worst loss: UC Santa Barbara (70)
UNLV comes off another great year which included a third place finish in the Mountain West and an NCAA Tournament appearance. They lost a lot of talent from last season; Anthony Bennett departed for the NBA Draft and Mike Moser transferred to Oregon.
The Rebels lack a big time scorer this year. UCONN transfer and junior forward Roscoe Smith leads them in scoring with just 13 points per game. They are extremely tough on the boards, however; Smith averages 13 rebounds per game, and fellow junior forward Khem Birch averages 12 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Consequently, this team is No. 9 in the nation in rebounding, but is average offensively and have only one 3-point threat in senior guard Kevin Olekaibe. He averages 2.5 3-pointers per game.
UNLV probably has been the biggest disappoint so far in the Mountain West, but a closer look at their schedule shows their only head-scratching loss was their 21-point loss to UC Santa Barbara, a solid team. The Rebels have been playing better as of late, and only lost to No. 1 Arizona by five. The Rebels are still contenders.
Utah State 10-2
Sagarin rating: 68 RPI: 75 NCSOS: 207 Scoring margin: 10.1 Best win: UC Santa Barbara twice (70) Worst loss: Pacific (97)
The Aggies enter their first year in the Mountain West and are coming off a season where the team got off to a promising 14-1 start only to be stricken heavily by injuries and limp to a 21-10 record. They have plenty to look forward to this year with four of five starters returning, including a healthy senior trio of Preston Medlin, Jarred Shaw and Spencer Butterfield.
Utah State has plenty of experience with their own formidable “big three” that includes center Shaw with 16.1 points per game and guards Butterfield and Medlin with 14 and 13.8 points per game, respectively. This trio, combined with the emergence of Southern Utah transfer Kyle Davis are the key cogs running this machine. Both Davis and Shaw are constant double-double threats and Butterfield and Medlin can get to the rim and shoot well from deep. This team as whole excels at passing and shooting. The team is No. 9 nationally in assists per game and No. 21 in field goal percentage. Stopping guards from penetrating into the paint has been their weakness this year.
The Aggies have two quality wins against UC Santa Barbara this season, and their two losses have been against good teams in BYU and Pacific.
Wyoming Cowboys 9-4
Sagarin rating: 91 RPI: 98 NCSOS: 134 Scoring margin: 6.5 Best win: Arkansas State (159) Worst loss: at Denver (148)
Last year was a tale of two halves for the Cowboys as they started out 13-0 only to go 7-14 the last 21 games of the season. They lost their top-three scorers from a year ago.
The Cowboys are clearly led by junior forward Larry Nance Jr., who basically averages a double-double with 16.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. Second leading scorer and team sniper from deep is junior guard Riley Grabau, who complements Nance’s interior game. Interestingly enough, the team is one of the best shooting teams in the nation at No. 17 in field goal percentage, but average less than 70 points per game. Unlike most of the other Mountain West teams, Wyoming is not good at rebounding and are one of the 50 worst rebounding teams in the nation.
The Cowboys lack any top-100 wins this season and have lost to elite teams in Colorado and Ohio State. Look for Wyoming to keep games close with their slow tempo, but rebounding and their heavy reliance on Nance Jr. looks to do them in this year.
Predicted Order of Finish
San Diego State
New Mexico
Boise State
UNLV
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
Fresno State
Nevada
Air Force
San Jose State
The Mountain West is not quite the conference it was a year ago, but still has plenty of solid teams. San Diego State and New Mexico seem to be the cream of the crop right now; they are the only teams with any top-50 wins this season. Boise State’s experience should also have them contend at the top, while UNLV and Utah State are in the second tier of teams right now.