Five tips to win your bracket pool

It’s one of the great justices of the universe that no matter one’s age, knowledge of sports or level of emotional investment, literally anyone can win in a March Madness bracket pool.

Just last year my five-year-old nephew accurately predicted Duke as national champions, beating out a field of about 20 family members to win in glorious fashion. I can’t stress enough just how spectacular it was to see a kid win on essentially a series of fortunate coin-flips.

The randomness that is the annual March Madness tournament is unpredictable by nature, and everyone kind of knows that on some level. But, that doesn’t stop us from seeking out “expert picks” or letting TV personalities like Kevin Hart convince us to take Texas Tech to the Final Four.

Expert picks and conventional wisdom might help you finish in the middle of the pack and avoid the shame of losing half of your Final Four opening weekend, but to really separate yourself from the field you’ll need your own set of rules — ones that aren’t rooted in things like statistics and analysis. Feel free to borrow some of mine.

The Pac-12 is not to be trusted

I can’t recall a tournament in the past decade where a west coast team caused me to shake my fist at the heavens and ask the basketball gods why they hated me so. The Pac-12 will send a record seven teams to the tournament this year, which coincidentally means we all get to look on in horror as a record seven brutal maulings take place before the Sweet 16.

Tell me which of these scenarios seems in any way ideal. If by some miracle Arizona tops the winner of Vanderbilt vs Wichita State, a likely matchup with Miami looms in the round of 32. Colorado plays the 2014 national champion UConn, which could very well be the first NCAA basketball team to win a game scoring 90 percent of its points from the charity stripe. Oregon State has as many tournament wins in the past 26 years as Trump University. USC is actual garbage, and the remaining two dozen Trojans fans who haven’t yet found a seat on the Oregon bandwagon don’t seem willing to acknowledge this.

Oregon in particular is a historical underachiever and should never be counted on to win a big game. The Ducks did just post a blowout win over Utah, but I’m not exactly sold on the Utes and you probably shouldn’t be either. Do not trust the Pac-12 with more than a few first-round consolation victories. After the Utes are finished pantsing Fresno, I expect they’ll be due for an upset at the hands of Seton Hall. I’m unwilling to accept the fact that a Utah vs Gonzaga game is even possible, but should the darkest timeline occur this weekend, I’ll be rooting for a meteor. Yes, I prefer an act of God destroy the stadium than watch either team win.

Picking all the underdogs is unwise

You always ought to cheer for the underdog. Nobody likes the guy from Provo who’s got a LeBron James Cavs jersey and a Yankees hat. That doesn’t mean you should go around picking multiple double-digit seed upsets in all four regions though. Yes, it’s boring to pick teams that generally fall in line with seeding, but don’t go crazy with the underdog selections. The rule for this pretty simple — no more than three double-digit seeds belong in your Sweet 16.

Also, you should without fail have at least one upset in the 12-5 matchup — in the past 27 years there have been just three without a 12-5 upset, meaning it should literally be against the rules to fill out a bracket without calling at least one. Personally I’m rolling with UALR over Purdue, but don’t overlook the Baylor-Yale game.

Picking upsets is all about deviating from the rest of your pool without burning up your entire bracket with one bad move. I don’t care how much you love Weber State, the Wildcats absolute maximum possible win total in this tournament is two. Call your upsets where you will, but don’t take them too far.

Don’t bet on the Mountain West

Oops, looks like this one barely even applies this year. Moving on.

Make your emotional picks in round 1

If you live and breathe Florida Gulf Coast, you take that team over North Carolina. It will probably end up costing you points, and every point in a large bracket pool matters, but what good is March Madness if you can’t root for your team? What if they actually pull it off, but you’ve already chosen UNC to win it all? Will you be thrilled your team beat the top-seeded Tar Heels or devastated to lose your champion?

I pick Gonzaga to make a first round exit every year. Gonzaga could be a perfect 33-0 and I’d take Holy Cross over them day one without even blinking. Why? Because never in my life will I put myself in a position that would necessitate me pulling for the Zags. Understand that this is part of the fun of the game — winning your office pool is great, but not as great as self-respect.

Am I disappointed in the NCAA’s mistreatment of mid-major conferences? Sure. But that doesn’t mean I’m not loving the idea of SDSU sitting at home watching the tournament just like the rest of us. People win their pools each year basing picks on jersey color and mascot toughness, why not base yours on who you’d like to actually see win games?

Beware the perennial wildcard teams

Is Villanova going to bounce early again or finally make a deep run? What the heck has Butler been up to? Does Xavier even play regular season games or do they just drop in every March to torch your bracket with its never-ending string of previously-unknown superstars?

There’s not a proven method to approaching these teams, so most people will simply hedge their bets, keep them all around until the Sweet 16, and hope for the best. This is where champions are made.

Do just a slight amount of homework and find out which teams choke in rivalry games, games against Top-25 opponents and any other major losses. Pick the three teams you know the least about and look up their season schedule. Did they lose all their games at the start of the season when the team hadn’t figured out its rotation yet? Do they always lose on the road? Are those losses close or in overtime periods? This will take you five minutes and probably boost you into the top four finishers in your pool.

Don’t go nuts with these rules — remember, you have the same chances of winning as a five-year-old picking random teams out of a hat. Don’t put in a ton of work thinking it’ll help your odds dramatically. Just educate yourself, have fun and never ever ever count on Oregon.

— Logan Jones is a three-time March Madness champion, and only fills out one version of his bracket each year the way God intended. Multiple brackets are bogus. Contact him at logantjones@aggiemail.usu.edu or on Twitter @Logantj.