Four bold predictions for the 2016 NBA season
- Get hyped, the Jazz are set to lock down that 7 seed.
This is what you came here for, right? You’re ready to argue the Jazz’ chances at the western conference’s 3 seed til your face’s concerning shade of purple matches your outdated Stockton jersey. I get it. The Utah Jazz are ready to “make the leap” — my question is, the leap to where?
Until further notice, the Warriors own a tier all to themselves, and behind them the western conference is still its usual bloodbath. The Clippers will probably claim the 2 seed from the slightly less superpowered Spurs, but beyond that we’re probably looking at a cluster of 48-win teams jostling for position through a series of wonky tiebreakers. I expect the west’s 5 seed to net maybe six more wins than the unlucky ninth-place playoff-missing worst-possible-way-to-finish team (looking at you, Rockets).
The Utah Jazz will be quite good. Gordon Hayward is probably a top 25 player. Rudy Gobert is going to do Rudy Gobert things. But you can’t look at this team’s offseason (even if it was by all accounts a good one) and assume every one of last year’s deficiencies are a thing of the past. No team is promised a 45-win floor, particularly in the west.
- Steph will not win MVP
Oh come on, it’s a bold predictions column — I can’t go around picking favorites willy-nilly. For the record, Steve Kerr says it’ll be Lillard this year, but in all honesty that’s probably just something you say as a coach in order to avoid placing unwanted media pressure on your own guys. Realistically, the only way Steph isn’t MVP this year is if voters and fans overdose on the dude’s media exposure — but that’s entirely possible and actually has a ton of precedence in the NBA, so quit scoffing and consider for a moment nearly 70 years of history.
Turns out we’re all a little funny when it comes to our national attention span. It is a verifiable fact that throughout the NBA’s storied legacy, an MVP’s welcome rarely lasts more than two years before we’re all ready for some new blood in the race, even if it’s not necessarily fair, and even if it’s for just one season.
The list of back-to-back MVP winners is probably not as exclusive a club as you might think. Steph may be fresh off his second in a row, but Duncan, Nash, Jordan and Magic all managed two straight seasons of consensus league-wide dominance. Jordan and Malone traded the award back and forth for four years. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won it six freaking times, and still never managed three straight. Kobe Bryant never won back-to-back MVPs (Dirk Nowitzki won it in ‘07). LeBron was one well-placed Derrick Rose year away from winning five in a row, but no dice.
There is a massive difference in the relative frequency of players winning multiple MVP awards versus the rarity of three straight MVPs — it hasn’t been done since Bird in ‘86, and before him you’ve got to go back 50 years to the Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain days.
With the addition of Durant, the argument against Steph will pick up some (probably unfair) “superteam” hate, leaving the door open for a worthy challenger — names rhyming with shmestbrook and shmillard come to mind.
- The Seattle Supersonics will win a title before OKC
Yes I’m serious.
- Houston will win this year’s “sucks to be you” sweepstakes
The NBA’s ninth spot sucks. It’s the reason the Lakers just opted to tank a few seasons ago to get started on their actual rebuild, rather than offering superficial lip-service to fans about “reloading” whilst wallowing in mediocrity and hemorrhaging season ticket holders for the better part of a decade. The Jazz, unlucky residents of last year’s home for dashed playoff dreams and recipients of a weak 2016 draft pick wisely dealt to Atlanta, look to elevate themselves into the playoff picture and out of this dreaded middle-of-the-road territory.
That means this hellhole has a vacancy, and it’s already hard at work stocking up on all of James Harden’s favorite imaginary cereal. Harden, who at one point fell just one Steph Curry short of actually earning league MVP — yes, that really (almost) happened — now captains a squad destined for the most unremarkable of seasons.
The biggest contract on this team after Harden dedicates nearly $19 million to confirmed local physics teacher Ryan Anderson, with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza and Patrick Beverley also kind of just hanging around the team facilities until somebody cares enough to replace them. Maybe Oregon State product Gary Payton II will earn some minutes and make this team’s 13 nationally televised games watchable, but it still won’t get the Rockets into the playoff picture.