If anyone can survive the MW gauntlet, it’s Utah State

A wild year in the Mountain West deserves a wild tournament, right?

I’m trying to keep my expectations low. Maybe the Aggies go nowhere in this year’s conference tournament. Maybe Larry Nance Jr. and the Wyoming Cowboys blast Utah State by 20 again and tear through the rest of the conference on their way to a title — Nance is the type of player who can make that happen.

Maybe.

But isn’t there a version of this story where the Aggies find the magic they’ve shown spurts of all season and upset the No. 4 seed? And why stop there? Isn’t there a universe where, after getting snubbed for coach of the year in favor of Boise’s Leon Rice, Stew Morrill puts together a post-season run for the ages?

Of course it’s unlikely. Most would consider USU lucky to get past Wyoming and face the winner of the Air Force vs Boise State matchup on Friday. But is a deep tournament run completely out of the question?

I contend that it is not, here’s why:

The “nobody believes in us” motivation is real. If you want proof, I’d direct your attention to Air Force’s 68-61 win over New Mexico Wednesday. Did anyone see Air Force doing anything in the postseason? And if you’re a Boise State fan, how comfortable are you with your quarterfinal matchup against a team with nothing to lose?

Think of the personalities of the group USU’s got in that locker room. Do you think David Collette has any intention of counting the Aggies out? Does Jalen Moore seem like the type to be content with an above-average regular season?

Morrill certainly expects to compete. In his typical “nothing to see here” tone, Morrill casually slipped this into his most recent presser, “Wyoming is a team that can win it. We like to think that we are. It is kind of wide open.”

USU can beat Wyoming, and Morrill knows it. His players all know it too. They’ve done it once before, suffocating Nance and the Wyoming offense with a near-impenetrable zone defense en route to a 56-44 win in January.

Nance scored 14 points in the Cowboys’ first clash with USU, while Collette went 7-10 shooting for 16 points and two blocks. The Aggies led by just three at halftime in that game, until Morrill’s adjustments and a gutsy defensive effort dragged Wyoming’s shooting percentage down to 31 percent in the second half. USU notched a 12-point victory on what was, at the time, the conference’s hottest team.

Now six weeks later in a tight No. 4 versus No. 5 matchup, why not take the team with the better defensive ability and coach Morrill at the helm? Wyoming recently embarrassing the Aggies in Laramie after a performance Morrill labeled as “god awful” should add even more fuel to USU’s fire.

Utah State has just the right balance of talent and that angry chip on their shoulder to be a darkhorse MW contender. The tournament certainly isn’t as clear-cut as in years past, exemplified by last year’s conference champion Lobos already headed home to Albuquerque.

Now, nobody really expects Boise to lose to the ninth-seeded Falcons. It’s just not how the tournament is supposed to go. But I won’t be shocked if conference player of the year Derrick Marks and the first-place Broncos watch the majority of the tournament from home this year, because the only common thread to this MW season is one of total chaos.

There isn’t a team in this tournament that USU can’t compete with. How poetic it would be to torch Wyoming Thursday in order to play BSU in the semifinals? How much greater would the already-pretty-great rivalry between Aggie and Bronco fans become if Morrill and company were the ones to spoil Boise’s shot at making the big dance?

Or, if Air Force pulls off the major upset against Boise and takes its place opposite USU, how incredibly chaotic would the MW be if the Aggies could (and we all know they could) topple the Falcons? Boise, New Mexico and Wyoming could potentially be done in this tournament by Friday night.

Maybe none of this matters. Maybe the regular season has me hoping for things in the postseason that just aren’t meant to be, and USU shows its inexperience Thursday in Vegas.

Or maybe the wild Mountain West ride isn’t over yet, and the never-say-die Aggies have just the right amount of coaching, talent and luck to survive a tournament where anything can happen.