Lack of offensive punch hurts Utah State in the end

Defense may win championships, but it’s not the only thing. If such were the case, Utah State might have hoisted the Mountain West Tournament trophy for a third consecutive time.

The Aggies spent most of the season getting away with its lackluster offense. Per Synergy Sports, they were almost exactly average in points scored per possession, sitting in the 52nd percentile. A top-shelf defense covered up any issues by lowering the bar the offense had to jump over to achieve victory. At least, it usually did. Saturday’s 68-57 loss to San Diego State wasn’t the only time a team burned USU on this weakness, but it’s the one that will hurt the worst. It ended the bid for a three-peat and it may have ended the Aggies’ run at the NCAA Tournament.

San Diego State’s win could be ascribed to making nine of its last 11 field goal attempts, but those shots protected a lead already built by the Aztecs, despite making just 35.5 percent of their shots prior to that last flurry of makes. Holding a team to such a low shooting percentage almost always provides an easy route to victory, but lately, Utah State has often failed to take advantage of its elite defense.

In two of its previous three games, the Aggies put forth awful first-half offensive performances. Just 24 points against UNLV and an embarrassing 17 against Fresno State (the 24 against San Diego State fits right in with this group). Thankfully for USU, in both of the previous games, its defense kept them in it, allowing UNLV only 24 points and just 27 for FSU (and only 28 for SDSU) and the offense eventually caught up. Expecting that same strategy to work against a great team like San Diego State was folly.

Getting buckets when they aren’t easy to come by has been Utah State’s greatest weakness. Neemias Queta is credited as the lead player on offense, but his primary method for getting points — the post-up — is a highly inefficient play. Queta’s post-ups generate 0.899 points per possession this season per Synergy. For reference, Alphonso Anderson shot a relatively low 38.3 percent on spot-up shots this season and those possessions yielded a far better 0.985 points per possession.

Not having a go-to perimeter scorer — like, say, Sam Merrill — hurt the Aggies when they needed to make a play. Marco Anthony, Brock Miller and Justin Bean all have tremendous value on the court, but bucket-getting is not among their top skills. Rollie Worster has shown flashes of that capability, but he’s just a true freshman with not enough time to develop into the kind of player to deliver in March.

Utah State’s offense under Smith during his entire tenure has actually been deceptively underwhelming. His three iterations have scored more points per game than any Aggie team since the 1990s, but when looking at efficiency, questions can be raised. In the last 10 USU basketball seasons, Smith’s three teams make up the bottom three in field goal percentage with 2020-21 being the worst. Three-point shooting is exactly the same story, even though Smith enjoyed two seasons of the best Aggie shooter not named Jaycee Carroll.

Pointing fingers at USU’s offense under Smith isn’t to say the team can’t be successful with him at the head. The results clearly say otherwise. Two conference tournament wins, a third appearance, a regular season conference title, and a 12-2 record in March all clearly indicate that what Smith does works. But his weakness is teaching his players to become better shooters and scorers, and this year it came back to bite the Aggies right in the big blue A.

@jwalker_sports

—sports@usustatesman.com