Mountain West men’s hoops — full tournament preview
This year’s Mountain west tournament is up for grabs. Since its inception, The Mountain West conference has been the wild west, a league packed with action and relative parity, it has always been hard to foresee how the season will go — just ask the 2018-19 conference champions that were picked to finish ninth. Even though the wild west tournament has always been difficult to predict, this year, with four standout teams being chased by four more impressive teams, it might prove especially difficult.
The last time the No. 1 seed won the Mountain West Tournament was in 2017 when Jordan Caroline led Nevada to a win over No. 2 seed Colorado State — only four No. 1 seeds have won in conference history. The No. 2 seed has won the tournament eight times, every seed from 1 to 7 has played in the championship game and the lowest seed to ever win the championship was Colorado State as a No. 6 seed when they beat the No. 4 seed UNLV in 2003.
Other than Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State and TCU, every team that has ever played in the Mountain West has played in and won championship at least once, a game that has been decided by an average margin of just 7.14 points. The only championship game that wasn’t close was in 2000 when UNLV blew out BYU 79-56. Since 2000, the Mountain West Conference has had 10 different champions.
Utah State is the current champion and is on a two-year win streak. The last time a team won consecutive championships was when New Mexico won three in a row in 2012, 2013 and 2014. But when looking at the NCAA tournament, the Mountain West has historically been a multi-bid league, averaging 2.45 bids per year. In fact, the conference has had three bids (5 times) more often than it has had a single one (3 times). Last year, the NCAA tournament was cancelled, but the Mountain West was all-but guaranteed two bids as Utah State earned the automatic bid by beating No. 5 nationally ranked San Diego State, relegating them to what would have been an at-large bid.
This season has already been filled with upsets, overtime, buzzer-beaters and blowouts. Even the bottom teams have added out-of-conference and P5 wins to their resumes. This year the Mountain West went 1-0 against the Big Ten and Big 12 and 3-0 against the Pac-12. For much of this season, the Mountain West made a compelling case for four teams. This wouldn’t be the first time the Mountain West would be represented by four teams. It most recently happened in 2012 and also in 2010. The likelihood of four bids is low, although those odds are bolstered by the lack of an Ivy League automatic bid and the unusually bad year for characteristically reliable teams across the country.
In the top tier, the Mountain West features four very capable teams and at-large contenders. For most of the season the four teams racing for a ticket to the dance were Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Utah State. Nevada started to turn some heads by heating up late in the season.
No. 11 — New Mexico 6-15, (2-15 conf.)
The New Mexico Lobos had an undoubtedly rough year. Historically a great program, New Mexico was ravaged by injuries in an already difficult year. It wasn’t long ago that the Lobos ran this conference. They won the championship three years straight in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Their fall from grace has been a difficult one, and they just recently announced head coach Paul Weir will not be returning next season. The Lobos will be back, just probably not this year. New Mexico is set to play the No. 6 seed Fresno State in the first round.
No. 10 — Air Force 5-19, (3-17 conf.)
The Air Force Academy is simply a victim of being in a great conference. Along with Boise State and San Jose State, the Falcons are one of only three teams currently in the conference to never play in the mountain west championship game. Although they won the regular season in 2004, they have not been able to establish an identity in the conference — due, in part, to recruiting obstacles. Air Force will face UNLV in the first round.
No. 9 — San Jose State 5-15, (3-13 conf.)
The Spartans had a lackluster year to match their unimpressive history in the conference. San Jose has the worst tournament record of any team that has ever played in the mountain west. TCU left the conference in 2012 and still has more tournament wins that San Jose. That’s not particularly hard, because San Jose has yet to win a single game in the Mountain West tournament. The Spartans had a rough season this year, so don’t count on them changing that in this year’s tournament. San Jose will be playing Wyoming in the first round.
No. 8 — Wyoming 13-10, (7-9 conf.)
The Wyoming Cowboys were slept on for most of the season. Two four-game losing streaks made it difficult for the Pokes to showcase their young core of shooters. Before their first four-loss stint, the Cowboys were 7-1 to start the season with wins against Oregon State, Denver, UVU and Fresno State. A two-point loss to Texas Southern tainted what would have been a very impressive start. Between the two four loss stints, the Cowboys picked up three wins including an impressive sweep over the Nevada Wolf Pack. The Cowboys are a young team and were prone to streaky ups and downs. In fact, almost all of their wins and losses came in groups of at least two. When Wyoming get hot, they can be difficult to stop. It may not happen in time to extend their season this year, but watch out for the Cowboys in years to come. The Cowboys have San Jose State in the first round.
No. 7 — UNLV 11-14, (8-10 conf.)
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels may have a losing record, but they are certainly not a losing team. The Rebels were curbed by a rocky start to the season losing their season opener to Montana State, then venturing into the gauntlet at the Maui Invitational. There, UNLV faced off against No. 14 UNC, SEC regular-season champion Alabama and Davidson. After being outscored by 43 points in those three games, UNLV traveled to Kansas and beat K-State. After being swept by Colorado State, the Runnin’ Rebels took a break from conference play to put a 61 point beat down on St Katherine’s before returning to conference play, soon after, splitting a series with Utah State. UNLV traded sweeps for most of the remainder of their season, being swept by Nevada, sweeping Air Force, being swept by Boise State, and then sweeping San Jose. The Rebels, on their home court, get to play Air Force in the first round. The winner of that game, likely UNLV, will face off against the Utah State Aggies in the quarter finals.
No. 6 — Fresno State 11-11, (9-11 conf.)
Right at .500 on the season with a losing in-conference record, the Fresno State Bulldogs might now seem like much on paper, but they can be a headache for even the best teams. This was put on display when the Dogs topped Boise State in a make-up game nearing the end of the season. Other than Boise State, Fresno lacks a marquee win. Fresno’s 11-11 record pretty much sums up everything about this team. An overwhelmingly average team with good moments and bad moments all season. Another great sample that represents exactly that this team is made of is the way they closed out the season. After spending all season beating the teams they were expected to beat and losing to the teams they were expected to lose to, Fresno split with UNLV to end the regularly scheduled season leading into makeup games. A split with UNLV is about exactly what you would expect from Fresno. Then the Bulldogs, on the road, beat Boise, came back home, took Utah State to the wire, and lost. Fresno’s first round opponent is the New Mexico Lobos.
No. 5 — Nevada 15-9, (10-7 conf.)
Nevada was overlooked after a mixed start. A few unimpressive wins, even one against Big 10 Nebraska, followed by a loss at home to San Francisco and on the road against Grand Canyon made it hard to see what this team was made of. The woes continued in Laramie getting swept by the Pokes, but a four-game win streak followed including a 29-point victory over UNLV as well as a sweep against the Boise State Broncos got the Wolf Pack back in the hunt for a bid. Nevada has become the personification of the line of demarcation of good and great in the Mountain West. Below them are storied programs struggling to live up to their past, rebuilding teams and teams that were unable to adapt. Above them, are well coached dangerous teams salivating for a bid to the dance. Which of those two groups Nevada belongs in could be decided this week. Nevada certainly seems closer to the top half than the bottom half of the conference. Grant Sheffield, and his 18 points and 6.2 assists per game, were able to make first-team all-conference. The Wolf Pack’s hunt for a bid won’t be an easy one, but it’s just getting started. With more bad losses than good wins, and plenty of both, the Wolfpack has been the recipient of mixed coverage all year. Nevada also took San Diego State to the wire in both losses and played Utah State close in one of two losses. Nevada is good, the question is just how good, how consistent and how sustainable they can be. Those questions will be answered in short order as Nevada is slated to rematch Boise State in the quarter finals.
No. 4 — Boise State 18-7, (14-6 conf.)
The Boise State Broncos finished last season 20-12 and made it to the Mountain West semifinals before losing to San Diego State, so it should not have been a surprise when the Broncos started the 13-1, beating BYU and Weber State and losing only to No. 17 Houston. The first sign of weakness for this Bronco team was when the red-hot Colorado State Rams beat them to snap a 17-game win streak. The Broncos got the second game of the series, but then got swept by the Wolfpack. Then the Broncos went on another tear beating UNLV and Utah State in four games straight. The Broncos cooled off to end the season with a sweep to San Diego State, but the real heat check was when they came back home and lost a make-up game to Fresno State. Boise State is on their longest losing streak of the season and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. The Broncos are a great basketball team, but will they be able to get back on track in time for their game against Nevada, or will the Wolf Pack pounce on their current struggles?
No. 3 — Colorado State 17-5, (14-4 conf.)
The Rams have enjoyed their view from atop the Mountain West for most of the year. A truly talented squad with an impressive resume, Colorado State is an absolute force to be reckoned with. In a breakout year for Colorado State, they were the only team in the conference to avoid getting beat by the same team twice. The Rams never lost back-to-back games and put an average of 3.75 wins in between each loss. Due to circumstance, the only in-conference team the Rams have not yet beat is Nevada who they lost to just once in a make-up game. The other interesting thing about Colorado State is that in their splits, the loss came in the second game in two of the three games and in all three splits, the score was significantly higher in the second game. It’s a small sample size, but it could suggest that the Rams struggle to make adjustments or are prone to being worn out by the same schemes. The Rams will mostly be facing teams that have already seen them once or twice so we will have to wait and find out if their dominance continues. Colorado State’s record earned them a bye in the first round, so they await the winner of the Fresno State vs New Mexico.
No. 2 — Utah State 18-7, (15-4 conf.)
Two-time reigning champs, The Utah State Aggies are fiercely looking for a third. The Aggies have guys like Justin Bean, Neemias Queta and even Coach Smith who are multiple-time Mountain West Championship winners, combined with a bunch of newcomers looking to uphold the tradition. This is a lethal mix. The list of newcomers includes Marco Anthony, and although he wasn’t part of the first MW championship squad, he won the NCAA championship. The former Virginia Cavalier, who was just named to the Mountain West All-Defensive team, helped the team navigate the difficult departure of Sam Merrill, with other newcomers Rollie Worster and Steven Ashworth adding to guard depth. Queta, the best player in the conference, has made notable strides in his three years at Utah State and has shown he can carry a team as a junior. Other staples include Brock Miller and Bean, both of which have also made improvements from previous years. The Aggies are well coached, well equipped, and hungry. With a resume that leaves them on the bubble, Utah State is going to have to go all-out during this tournament to earn a bid. This hasn’t been an issue for Coach Smith’s squads in the past. Coach Smith has been here before. He is 6-0 in Mountain West tournament play and 2-0 in Mountain West championship games.
This season, Queta’s conference player of the year campaign has led the Aggies to 18 wins, a No. 2 seed in the MW tournament, and a spot on the bubble. A rocky start clouds Utah State’s otherwise impressive resume. The opening game for the Aggies was scheduled to be against Wichita State, but in a last-minute change of plans, the Aggies faced off against VCU; they lost that game and the next against South Dakota State, both of which are projected to be tournament teams. The Aggies beat UNI before falling to 1-3. 11 straight wins, including two against San Diego State and one against Colorado State got the Aggies back on track. Then, after a win in Fresno, the second game of the series was postponed. The Aggies had a series set against Wyoming the following week, but the cowboys refused to travel to Logan for the games resulting in another delay. This led to an unplanned two week midseason break for the Aggies. When they returned, they did so without starter Worster, and lost two games on the road to Boise State. Worster is back in the lineup, and he and the other fresh faces on this Aggie squad certainly want to make it three straight Mountain West Championships.
The Aggies have a good enough resume that they might be able to sneak into the dance with just one or two wins in the tournament. It’s best though, not to leave any doubt. Another Championship would guarantee a trip to the NCAA tournament, and the Aggies would be able to cash in on last year’s unfinished business.
No. 1 — San Diego State 20-4, (14-3 conf.)
San Diego State’s midseason struggles were partially correlated with senior superstar Matt Mitchell’s injury. Mitchell went down in the first of two losses against Utah State. SDSU racked up wins against almost everyone in the conference, as well as No. 22 UCLA, No. 23 Arizona State, UC Irvine and Saint Mary’s. Fortunately, Mitchell is healthy, and the Aztecs are back at full strength and ready to go. Brian Dutcher is the 2021 Mountain West coach of the year, and although there was steep completion from Niko Medved, it was well deserved. Dutcher gets the most out of his guys, and when recruiting is as good as it is in San Diego, that can be a powerful combination. Nathan Mensah, Jordan Schakel and Mitchell would be a strong core regardless, but put Dutcher at the helm, and you’ve got a top-notch program. Getting swept by Utah State accounts for half of the Aztecs’ losses. The other two coming from BYU and Colorado State, when the Rams pulled off the biggest comeback in conference history. Going into the tournament, the Aztecs are poised to strike, San Diego State has played in eight of the last 10 championship games, winning three of them. They certainly have experience in the Mountain West tournament and have the skill to go deep. Currently ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and No. 21 in the net ratings, San Diego State seems to be off the bubble and in the dance. Playing without this pressure could unleash a very dangerous Aztec team. They will still have to win games with a target on their back, which has been difficult the past two seasons.
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—sports@usustatesman.com