Mountain West Roundup: Week 11

on November 13, 2018 at 10:16 am

Air Force – vs New Mexico (W 42-24)

The biggest game of next weekend for the Mountain West outside of Boise will take place in Laramie (you could argue SDSU at Fresno State, but I’m not sure the Aztecs really have much of a chance on the road). With the Falcons’ win versus New Mexico, both Air Force and Wyoming stand at 4-6 on the season. Air Force will close the season the following week at home versus Colorado State. Wyoming will finish out at New Mexico. ESPN’s FPI favors both teams in the their final games of the season, meaning the winner of Saturday’s clash will be likely to qualify for a bowl game, while the loser will sit out the postseason. For two 4-6 teams, the stakes are incredibly high.

Boise State – vs Fresno State (W 24-17)

Well. That was something. Boise State reasserted themselves as the class of the conference and set up a straight runway into the title game. The situation favors the Broncos, regardless of how Aggie Nation currently feels about the game. Boise State plays New Mexico on Friday this week, giving the Broncos an extra day to prepare for USU. The Broncos are riding a five-game winning streak, but on the other hand, four of those victories came by 10 points or less. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s going to happen in two weeks, but Boise State is back in the driver’s seat.

Colorado State – at Nevada (L 49-10)

Reminder that this team was picked to finish in front of Utah State in the MW preseason poll. The Rams are bad, and it might be a while before they become good again. This week’s loss mathematically removed them from bowl eligibility, and serves at the team’s sixth loss by double digits this season. CSU’s lone victories this season have come over San Jose State, New Mexico, and an absolute fluke win over a bad Arkansas team. Head coach Mike Bobo has enough reserved success after three straight bowl wins to survive a year like this, but after losing all three of the bowl games and then going through a season like this, Bobo’s seat is getting a lot warmer than one would’ve thought to start the season. Next year will be a huge one in Fort Collins.

New Mexico – at Air Force (L 42-24)

The Lobos’ slim chances for a bowl game evaporated entirely on Saturday by giving up nearly 500 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry to Air Force. That’s understandable against an option attack, but quite less so if you’re also an option team. More is expected of New Mexico than that. The Lobos had defeated Air Force in three straight seasons, and then suffered their worst defeat at the hands of the Falcons since 2011. Bobo might survive one three-win season at Colorado State. Bob Davies is going to see if he can survive two straight in Albuquerque.

Fresno State – at Boise State (L 24-17)

Fresno State’s dreams of a New Year’s Six bowl aren’t entirely lost. The Bulldogs are still 28th in this week’s AP poll, and still have two chances for marquee wins versus San Diego State and, in all likelihood, the MW title game. That, plus the caveat that the Group of 5 bid goes to the highest ranked G5 champion, means that the Bulldogs only need to win out and hope for a UCF loss, probably in the AAC title game, in order to make it to the Fiesta Bowl. Still, things look a lot bleaker in Fresno after Friday’s nailbiter.

Steve Conner

Boise State wide receiver A.J. Richardson (7) tries to break away from a Fresno State defender after a reception during the first half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Nov. 9, 2018, in Boise, Idaho. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)

Nevada – vs Colorado State (W 49-10)

Nevada wasn’t supposed to be here. The Wolf Pack were picked to finish fourth in the West Division before the season. If SDSU were to somehow upset Fresno State next week, Nevada would jump into a three-way tie with the two teams for the West Division lead. At 6-4, the MW now already has five bowl eligible teams. Hawaii is likely to reach seven wins and eligibility this year, and as already discussed, the winner of Air Force and Wyoming is likely to reach the postseason as well. That would be seven bowl eligible teams for the conference. That sounds great, until you realize that if the MW is shut out of the NY6, which appears likely at this point, the conference has only five solid bowl tie-ins, plus one conditional bowl which depends on other conferences not filling the bowl with their own bowl eligible teams. Do the math. Seven teams. Only six bowls. Someone’s going to get left out of the postseason in some cruel version of musical chairs. The Mountain West is trash (https://usustatesman.com/column-mountain-worst-conference/).

San Diego State – vs UNLV (L 27-24)

Proof positive that the Aztecs are a bad team masquerading as a bowl team this year. San Diego State’s highest point total of the season is a mere 31 points. They haven’t beaten a single team by more than 14 points. Still, SDSU controls their own destiny at this point. Beat Fresno State and the Aztecs would create a three-way tie between themselves, the Bulldogs, and the Wolf Pack for the division crown. That’s a fascinating scenario, but the way SDSU has played this season, that’s all it is. Don’t expect the Aztecs to make much noise the rest of the way home.

San Jose State – at Utah State (L 62-24)

Still a blowout, but an improvement from last year’s 61-10 debacle at home. Jumping from -51 to -38 falls right in line with SJSU’s improvement on average margin of victory this season from last, as the Spartans are losing by an average of 16 fewer points per game. It’s descriptive enough of SJSU’s situation that a stat like that is the silver lining of their season.

UNLV – at San Diego State (W 27-24)

If head coach Tony Sanchez is making a last ditch effort to save his job, this was a good start. It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Las Vegas, and UNLV is already eliminated from bowl eligibility, but perhaps returning that same favor to Hawaii this week could help Sanchez’s case. I still wouldn’t call it likely that Sanchez returns next year, but given his achievements in approving UNLV’s facilities plus a surprising win over San Diego State, there is a timeline where Sanchez does receive another chance. If he does, next year immediately becomes a bowl-required year for Sanchez to stay further.