Mountain West Roundup – Week 8
Air Force – at UNLV (W 41-35)
The Falcons made it a lot closer than it probably should have been, but were ultimately able to escape with what basically amounted to a must-win. At 3-4, Air Force still needs a little help to reach a bowl game, but there is a clear path. The Falcons should beat both Colorado State and New Mexico at home to reach five wins, leaving the Falcons needing one win versus Boise State at home or at Army or Wyoming. Air Force will be probably be sweating out bowl eligibility until the final week of the season.
Boise State – vs Colorado State (W 56-28)
The Broncos’ run to a NY6 bowl ended with their loss to San Diego State. Now, it looks increasingly likely that Boise State won’t even win the MW. Even if they can outlast Utah State for the division title, it’s difficult to see the Broncos winning at either San Diego State or Fresno State. Boise State won easily and are only one win shy of a bowl game, but they didn’t look dominant versus Colorado State, and now they face a three-game stretch of possible pitfalls: at Air Force, vs BYU, and vs Fresno State.
Colorado State – at Boise State (L 56-28)
Three wins in four games. That is how Colorado State must finish the season to reach a bowl game for the sixth straight season. That four-game stretch includes a rivalry game versus Wyoming, at Nevada and Air Force, and at home versus Utah State. It’s hard to find two wins in there for the Rams, let alone three. The bowl streak will probably end for CSU this year.
New Mexico – vs Fresno State (L 38-7)
The Lobos continue their cascade down the division standings. A 3-2 start to the season overshadowed a lot of flaws for New Mexico, but they are now on full display as the Lobos fell to 3-4. The easiest game left on the schedule might be at home versus Wyoming in the final week of the season. Don’t be surprised if the Lobos lose out for the rest of the season.
Wyoming – vs Utah State (L 24-16)
Four straight losses leave Wyoming with no more room for error over the last stretch of the season. Fortunately, the Cowboys have a legitimate shot in each of their final four games. They have Colorado State and New Mexico on the road, with San Jose State and Air Force at home. For a team that’s been horrid offensively, it’s a knife’s edge. But freshman QB Sean Chambers was an absolute spark for Wyoming versus USU, finishing with 62 yards on three of five passing, plus 100 yards rushing on 19 carries. The Cowboys put up 13 points with Chambers in, compared to only three with Tyler Vander Waal in the game, who mustered only 38 yards on seven of 19 passing and an interception. The problem is whether the coaching staff will sit Chambers in order to preserve his redshirt. Wyoming’s bowl chances rest on that decision.
Fresno State – at New Mexico (W 38-7)
The Bulldogs are one of three MW teams to become bowl eligible this past week, joining San Diego State and Utah State to do so, but the Bulldogs came behind both USU and SDSU in the latest AP poll. While the resumes compare rather well across all three MW teams, the computers say that order is egregious. The Sagarin Ratings slot Fresno State as the 18th-best team in the country (USU and SDSU are ranked 44th and 72nd, respectively). Football Outsiders’ S&P+ rankings puts Fresno State even higher at ninth in the nation (USU ranks 30th and SDSU ranks 53rd). The Bulldogs will have several chances to leapfrog their MW mates with games at Boise State and at home versus SDSU coming in several weeks.
Hawaii – vs Nevada (L 40-22)
On paper, the past two weeks looked like prime opportunities for Hawaii to reach bowl eligibility with their seventh win (the Warriors play 13 regular season games this, requiring a 7-6 record to become eligible for bowl consideration). They’ve fallen flat versus both BYU and Nevada. Hawaii now has only one last golden chance at that seventh victory: a November 17th home meeting with UNLV. Games at Fresno State and SDSU, plus a home game versus Utah State, seem unlikely to be kind to a suddenly struggling Rainbow Warriors team.
Nevada – at Hawaii (W 40-22)
The Wolf Pack staked their claim as the third-best team in the West Division behind Fresno State and SDSU. A decisive victory at Hawaii is an impressive statement to make at this point of the season, and it does wonders for Nevada’s bowl chances. The Wolf Pack pose a major threat to an Aztec team that is far from the quality their 6-1 record suggests, especially with Nevada playing at home, and then Nevada faces a relatively easy schedule to close the season with road games at San Jose State and UNLV, plus a home game versus Colorado State. I’d bet on the Wolf Pack reaching six wins this year.
San Diego State – vs San Jose State (W 16-13)
The Aztecs are possibly the worst 6-1 team in college football history.
Only 5 FBS teams in the CFP era have been held to 28 points the entire season. Here’s how they did:
• 2017 Illinois: 2-10
• 2017 UTEP: 0-12
• 2016 UConn: 3-9
• 2014 Wake Forest: 3-9
• 2014 SMU: 1-11
San Diego State is halfway through the season and 5-1!— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 13, 2018
The line that SDSU is walking is unmaintainable. The Aztecs rank barely ahead of BYU for total offense per game, and are 120th in the nation at only 20.7 points per game. Beating Air Force and San Jose State by a combined seven points is a frightening red flag. Eventually, the Aztecs will trip up over their own feet. The rest of the schedule is easy enough that SDSU may be able to slide by with this offense… except for a November 17th date at Fresno State. The Aztecs are in trouble that game.
San Jose State – at San Diego State (L 16-13)
The Spartans were eliminated from bowl contention when the season began, but this week marked SJSU’s official elimination from a bowl game. At 0-7, the Spartans have zero shot at a postseason, but the Spartans do have a few things to hang their hat on this year. Despite winning two games last season, SJSU’s scoring margin has actually improved this season by about 10 points. Head coach Brent Brennan is probably safe for another year regardless of the way this season ends, but a winless season will certainly heat up his seat quickly. Next week versus an injured UNLV team might be the Spartans’ last best chance at a victory this year.
UNLV – vs Air Force (L 41-35)
The Rebels desperately needed a win this week. UNLV still has Fresno State and San Diego State on the schedule, and a loss this week means the Rebels will need to upset at least one of the two division leaders to reach the six-win plateau, and that’s assuming UNLV doesn’t slip up versus San Jose State, Hawaii, or Nevada. Things aren’t looking good in Vegas, especially considering head coach Tony Sanchez may need to reach a bowl to save his job.