Mountain West Roundup – Week 9

on October 29, 2018 at 8:48 pm

Here’s the situation. With the collapse of the Poinsettia Bowl, the MW has only five concrete bowl tie-ins: the Las Vegas Bowl, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the Arizona Bowl, the New Mexico Bowl, and the Hawaii Bowl. The conference also has a conditional tie-in with the Cheez-It Bowl if the bowl is not already filled by Big 12 and Pac 12 teams. The conference has at least five bowl slots, with a chance at six. The problem is that the MW has had at least six bowl eligible teams in every season since 2013. There could be an issue with finding a bowl game for every eligible team in the conference. In preparation for that scenario, we’ll be taking a look at each team’s bowl chances each week.

Air Force – vs Boise State (L 48-38)

The Falcons led 28-21 with a minute remaining in the first half, but allowed the Broncos to score a final touchdown with five seconds left in the half, kicking off a string of 17 unanswered points for Boise State that gave the Broncos control. AF trimmed it to three points late, but ultimately succumbed, leaving the Falcons with only four games to win three in order to make a bowl game. Next week at Army looks like too much of an ask, meaning Air Force will probably have to reel off three straight vs New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State. UNM and CSU should fall in the Falcons’ favor, but November 17th at Wyoming will be a dogfight. ESPN’s FPI gives Air Force a 50.1 percent chance of victory.

Boise State – at Air Force (W 48-38)

The Broncos are doing just enough to keep their MW title hopes alive, but not much more. With the win, they did ensure they’ll play in a bowl game for the 17th straight season, but the season still feels “meh” for the Broncos. Once considered the favorite to secure the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, Boise State can now only play spoiler. Defending their home field versus Fresno State and Utah State in the coming weeks would drastically change the feel of this season.

Colorado State – vs Wyoming (L 34-21)

The Rams are now 3-6 after falling to Wyoming in a game that really wasn’t that close. The Cowboys led 24-0 before Colorado State made it respectable with several scores in the fourth quarter. CSU must now win three straight to qualify for a bowl game, and ESPN’s FPI projections don’t give them a better chance than 20 percent to win any of them. The Rams are likely to finish this season 3-9 and in the cellar of the MW.

New Mexico – at Utah State (L 61-19)

The Lobos will be joining CSU at the bottom of the conference. After going through that, New Mexico now gets to face a pissed-off San Diego State, an Air Force team desperate to reach six wins, a pissed-off Boise State team, and another Wyoming team desperate to reach six wins. That sounds like 3-9 in Albuquerque.

Wyoming – at Colorado State (W 34-21)

Congratulations, Wyoming, you have found your quarterback. Unfortunately, it might have been too late. The Cowboys did take the rivalry win over Colorado State, but still need to run the table to make a bowl game. Next week versus San Jose State shouldn’t bee too much of an issue, and Wyoming will have a good shot on the road at New Mexico to end the season. That home game versus Air Force will probably decide each team’s bowl fate, however, and it’s basically a coin toss. Winner probably makes a bowl. Loser goes home.

Fresno State – vs Hawaii (W 50-20)

In my opinion, the Bulldogs are the best Group of 5 team this year on paper. Offensively and defensively, Fresno State is a pulverizing machine. FSU’s issue, though, may be the Bulldogs’ lack of close games this year. They’ve yet to win a game by less than 18 points (they lost to Minnesota by seven). That won’t come into play against teams like UNLV or San Jose State, but games against Boise State, San Diego State, and whoever they might face in a MW title game could be a different story. We don’t really know how this Fresno State team might play under pressure.

Hawaii – at Fresno State (L 50-20)

We know basically everything about Hawaii. Good offense that can take advantage of favorable matchups but struggles against talented opposition, and a bad defense that can’t stop anyone. Hawaii isn’t beating Utah State or San Diego State, so their bowl hopes come down to beating UNLV at home. Root for that scenario. If eligible, Hawaii is almost automatically slotted into the Hawaii Bowl, a low-payout game played on Christmas Eve. For USU fans, Hawaii’s bowl eligibility helps prevent the worst outcome for bowl season.

Nevada – vs San Diego State (W 28-24)

The Wolf Pack might actually finish second in the West Division if SDSU loses to Fresno State. Nevada has only two conference losses (to Fresno State and Boise State) and is only 5-3, but the Wolf Pack probably won’t lose any of the remaining three, where ESPN’s FPI favors them by 69 percent or more in each game. Nevada might still be a few notches below the conference’s elite, but they’re on their way there, and it looks like an 8-4 season plus a bowl game is going to be a turning point for the program.

San Diego State – at Nevada (L 28-24)

Remember when people thought the Aztecs belonged in the same conversation as the other schools competing for the G5 NY6 bid? That was cute. SDSU hasn’t scored more than 28 points in any game this season. The offense is one of the worst in the country, and while its great defense can overcome that in a lot of games, it’s difficult to contend for a title with that strategy. It ultimately doomed SDSU’s campaign this season.

San Jose State – vs UNLV (W 50-37)

Unfortunately, there’s no free beer for when San Jose State wins a game, but maybe there should be. SJSU’s closing schedule is daunting, so the win here probably saves Brent Brennan’s job for another season to see if the program can turn itself around. It remains to be seen if Brennan can ultimately achieve that, but he’s quickly running out of time to prove it. Next year is probably his last unless a major upswing happens.

UNLV – at San Jose State (L 50-27)

The Rebels needed this game. Already, UNLV needed to upset one of Fresno State or SDSU to keep their bowl hopes alive. Now they need them both, plus wins at Hawaii and versus Nevada. That’s not happening. It’s more likely that UNLV loses out the remaining schedule to finish 2-10. A 4-8 finish is possibly the best outcome at this point. It’s unfortunate and you never want someone to lose their job, but losing to San Jose State probably cost Tony Sanchez his.