Preview – Utah State vs. New Mexico State
Last season sucked. Losing to New Mexico State in overtime at the Arizona Bowl was the insult to the injury of an underwhelming season. On paper, 6-7 seasons are not the end of the world, especially for a Utah State program that reached six wins or more in only three seasons between 1980 and 2010. In reality, the ending to 2017 for USU felt like a crushing blow to a faltering program.
For NMSU, that bowl was the first in school history in 57 years, to say nothing of their victory. Head coach Doug Martin seemed to have done what no one else apparently could: build a winning program in Las Cruces.
How things have turned around in the nine months since Tucson.
New Mexico State returned only 41 percent of their offensive production from last year (for comparison, USU returned 67 percent) and it’s shown in the first two games of NMSU’s season. Wyoming and Minnesota pose two strong defenses, with the two projected to finish 15th and 32nd respectively in defensive S&P this season, but NMSU managed only 406 yards COMBINED from the two contests (USU averaged 397 yards per game last year). In short, New Mexico State’s offense is in trouble.
New Mexico State quarterback Matt Romero looks for a receiver during the first half of the team’s NCAA college football game against Wyoming in Las Cruces, N.M., Saturday, Aug. 25, 2018. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)
NMSU has a total of 29 yards rushing this season (again, that’s two full games). QB Matt Romero, an incoming JC transfer, has completed only 52.9 percent of his passes and is averaging a putrid 4.4 yards per attempt. That kind of futility can’t last much longer if NMSU is to have any hopes of building a bowl streak. That could mean one of two things for USU.
The most dangerous animal is a cornered animal. An animal that typically may be predictable and easy to contain can become erratic and uncontrollable. With their usual strategies failing to work so far, New Mexico State’s offense could enter cornered-animal mode, pulling out any and all stops to kickstart the offense. Trick plays, entirely new concepts not previously employed, and a heightened sense of urgency; all could become constants in New Mexico State’s offense. The new NCAA rule allowing athletes to play in four games while maintaining their redshirt is undoubtedly in the back of the minds of NMSU’s coaches.
The gamble could pay off solely because New Mexico State’s defense is good enough to keep the Aggies in games, as the unit returns 83 percent of last year’s production. NMSU doesn’t need an offensive explosion to become more competitive, just enough to stay on the field slightly longer. The NMSU defense was on the field for 40 and 34.5 minutes in their first two games, amounting to an average of 16 more plays per game than the offense. If the offense can reduce that number to a near 50-50 split, this defense should be formidable for nearly the full 60 minutes.
Utah State’s Gaje Ferguson, right, returns an interception for a touchdown against Michigan State’s Matt Dotson (89) as Utah State’s Chase Christiansen (48) trails during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game, Friday, Aug. 31, 2018, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Suffice it to say, this New Mexico State team already has numerable problems to fix this early in the season, and Utah State is anxious for the chance to capitalize on those issues. USU’s first time back on the field since Tucson resulted in one of the most hopeful losses in school history. Losing 38-31 to Michigan State will appear in the record books only as a loss, but holding a lead with under five minutes to play in East Lansing is a massive confidence boost, regardless of head coach Matt Wells’ opinion of moral victories. That game alone convinced many Aggie fans that something special may be brewing this season in Logan. That “something special” must start on Saturday, though.
And it probably will. Utah State is definitely not short of inspiration, and after a game in which the Aggies were bereft of obvious on-paper advantages, should find opportunities all across the field. Sophomore QB Jordan Love threw for over 300 yards against Michigan State, something only two QBs accomplished all of last season against the Spartans, and should find even more air space on Saturday. After a rough day on the ground, USU also faces a NMSU defense allowing over 300 yards rushing per game. Utah State’s offense looked great against Michigan State, putting together three drives of 70 yards or longer. New Mexico State’s defense is good, but to say the least, they’re not Michigan State. USU could explode offensively.
Utah State quarterback Jordan Love rolls out against Michigan State during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Friday, Aug. 31, 2018, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Giving up 38 points doesn’t seem like a solid defensive outing, but Utah State showed a lot of signs against MSU that this unit can become a stifling opponent. The Aggies held LJ Scott, one of the best running backs in the Big Ten, to only 84 yards on 23 carries. After allowing over 200 yards rushing per game last season, that alone was a sight for sore eyes. The secondary will have plenty to prove after several miscommunications allowed big yardage plays to MSU, but an improved pass rush led by junior Tipa Galeai should alleviate the secondary’s responsibilities.
Utah State may be 0-1 after their (encouraging) loss to Michigan State, but everything is going to be alright. The Spartans were USU’s toughest opponent on the schedule, and things should get remarkably easier over the coming weeks, starting with New Mexico State. The Aggies of Las Cruces were a wonderful, feel-good story last year, but this year’s version lacks the same talent and potential. The Aggies of Logan should roll away on Saturday, setting the table for a magical season.