Preview: Utah State vs. San Jose State
A lot has happened since Utah State ventured to Silicon Valley to take on San Jose State last season.
It’s tough to comprehend, but that game was considered a near toss-up before kickoff (https://usustatesman.com/utah-state-vs-san-jose-state-roundtable-predictions/). Utah State was only a two-point favorite over the Spartans according to Vegas. Both sides came in desperate for a season-altering victory. The Aggies were fresh off of an embarrassing loss at Wake Forest, while the Spartans had been boat-raced in consecutive weeks by Texas and Utah. USU had won six in a row in the series, but it appeared that SJSU had a chance to level the score.
If you remember what happened next, that paragraph seems laughable. USU won 61-10, extending their winning streak over SJSU to seven games, and effectively salvaging the remainder of the season. The Aggies still struggled to a 6-7 record, but their performance at San Jose State proved that the team had shrugged off the 3-9 record of the year prior.
San Jose State has won only two games since facing USU. A stunning upset over a Josh Allen-less Wyoming, plus this year’s win over UNLV have been the only bright spots in a dark existence for SJSU under head coach Brent Brennan. With a 3-19 career record, Brennan holds the worst winning percentage of any coach in SJSU history. The Spartans are in a very, very dark place as a program right now.
All of that will make no sense with what I say next: San Jose State is improving. No, the Spartans are not a good football team, and yes, Utah State should post another dominating victory on Saturday, but SJSU is actually showing signs of life as a program. After losing 10 of 13 games last season by 20 points or more, the Spartans have suffered such defeats only twice so far this season. Their average scoring margin has improved from -25.9 points per game a season ago to -13.2 points per game this year. That still qualifies SJSU as a bad football team (the Spartans rank 118th nationally in scoring margin), but it also qualifies as improvement. For SJSU, that’s as good as it gets right now.
Junior QB Josh Love has thrown 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions with a 56.9 completion percentage. Sophomore RB Tyler Nevens averages four yards per carry, and the trio of Tre Walker, Josh Oliver, and Trey Hartley are all over 300 yards receiving on the season. Again, those stats are not impressive on paper, but they are improvements on past SJSU seasons. The offense has improved upon last season by a full touchdown more per game, while the defense, led by LBs Jamal Scott and Ethan Aguayo, has trimmed five points per game compared to last season.
The issue for SJSU, however, is that while improvements are promising, they still fall well short of lifting the Spartans into the realm of competitiveness this year. Let’s be frank. Utah State is going to win this game, and they’re probably going to win by a lot. ESPN’s FPI projections give the Aggies a 97.9 percent chance of victory on Saturday. USU ranks 14th in S&P+ while San Jose State ranks 125th. The Sagarin Ratings drop USU to 32nd in the nation, but with those rankings including FCS teams as well, SJSU ranks a paltry 148th. In short, Saturday’s outcome is all but a foregone conclusion. As a 31-point favorite, the Aggies should coast through another blowout victory.
The Aggies tallied 589 yards of offense versus the Spartans last year. Utah State has already topped that number four times this season. USU set a new school record with 704 yards of offense only two weeks ago versus New Mexico. That number might not be safe on Saturday. QB Jordan Love (or Henry Colombi should Love sit out as a precaution due to a head injury suffered at Hawaii) should find plenty of room to operate, and a running game that just stampeded their way to seven touchdowns versus Hawaii should find plenty of opportunity for a repeat performance. Utah State has shown no issue in asserting dominance over an inferior squad, and Saturday should follow script.
The Spartans, as nicely as we can put it, are not good. SJSU looks to be locked into a 1-11 season in head coach Brent Brennan’s second year at the helm, with the Spartans playing upstart Nevada and division leader Fresno State to close out the season following USU. Brennan and the Spartans are showing improvements, and could return to relevancy within the MW over the coming seasons.
Saturday’s showdown in Maverik Stadium should show just how far the Spartans still have to go to again catch Utah State.