QUICK HITS: Fresno State at Utah State
Setting the Stage: The Fresno State Bulldogs roll into Logan with a 1-0 record after defeating Cincinnati in the season opener and a bye last weekend. Fresno is led by quarterback Ryan Colburn, who threw four touchdown passes to four different receivers in the 28-14 win over Cincinnati. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 27 in the country and have defeated Utah State the past three seasons, although in close games. The Aggies are coming off a 38-17 win at home against Idaho State a week after nearly upsetting the Oklahoma Sooners. Saturday’s game should be especially intriguing for both teams, as it will be played just days after the announcement that the WAC will seek legal action against the Bulldogs for leaving the conference.
When Fresno State has the ball: Expect the Bulldogs to come out with a balanced attack which will attempt to utilize the run to open up the passing game. Fresno State teams have traditionally relied on a solid running game (last year’s offense was anchored by current NFL player Ryan Matthews) to open up plays down-field, and despite struggling against Cincinnati in establishing the run game (49 yards on 30 carries), coach Pat Hill’s team isn’t likely to give up on the ground game.
“Our offensive linemen take a lot of pride in what they do. And I’ll tell you what, they’re not too happy with the result,” Hill told the Fresno Bee following the game, which saw quarterback Ryan Colburn complete 75% of his passes and no interceptions. “We’ll get back down to basics with the offensive line and get back into a good, hard-nosed groove of running the football.” If Fresno can do that against USU, expect the play-action pass the open up downfield, where receivers Jamel Hamler and Rashad Evans could cause headaches for the USU secondary.
When USU has the ball: Look for USU offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin to employ more diversity than the United Nations when the Aggie offense takes to the field. The Aggies were extremely balanced last weekend against the Bengals, rushing for 275 yards and passing for 267. Once more, USU ran and threw the ball out of numerous formations ranging from heavy sets with two tight ends and two backs to wide open, five wide receiver sets that tested the Bengals’ ability to compete in the open field with the Aggie athletes. With three solid options at running back, look for USU to rotate players frequently, and attempt to tire out Fresno’s defense with an up-tempo attack. USU will likely attempt to neutralize Fresno State’s aggressive pass rush through a number of means, including read-option plays and quick screens.
X-factor: Utah State offensive tackle Spencer Johnson. It’s not often that fans think of an offensive lineman as a “game changer,” but that’s exactly what Johnson could become against Fresno State. As the rock who will guard Diondre Borel’s blind side against Fresno defensive end Chris Carter, Johnson will have to use his quick feet and strong hands to keep the All-WAC defensive end away from his quarterback. Carter had three sacks against Cincinatti, and is the kind of player who is almost always double teamed by opposing teams. Yet with the rise of Logan Harrell (3.5 sacks against Cincinatti) at defensive tackle, it’s a pick-your-poison proposition to defending Borel for Baldwin, who may need to ask the four-year starter to go it alone against one of the nation’s quickest and most feared defenders.
Crunching Numbers: Just how committed will Fresno State be to establishing a running game? When you consider that the Bulldogs have had a 1,000-yard rusher in 12 of the past 15 seasons, last week’s performance starts to give some clarity to Hill’s statements about needing to reestablish a physical presence up front … While the Bulldogs have won three straight in the series, Fresno State has won just three of eleven games on the road against USU in the all-time series. That said, Fresno State is 10-3 in WAC season openers under Hill, including 4-1 in openers on the road.
Statesman Prediction: While it’s only the third week in the season, this could very well be a “must win” game if the Aggies are to accomplish their team goal of getting to a bowl game this season. This week’s game will tell USU fans if the team really has broken through. On paper, USU should struggle against Fresno’s defensive line, while the USU secondary will have its hands full with Fresno State’s wide receivers. Yet that’s the same situation the Aggies found themselves in going into the game against Oklahoma, and the team nearly came away with the upset in that game. Behind Borel’s legs, Andersen’s aggressive defensive attitude and a little luck, the Aggies surprise the Bulldogs in this one.
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