Opinion: Aggie’s path to Ute upset in the Battle of the Brothers

Utah State football last welcomed the University of Utah to Maverik Stadium on Sep. 7, 2012. The Utes received a warm welcome and a harsh goodbye as the Aggies defeated their in-state foe 27-20 in overtime. Looking back at that 2012 Aggie team, it was loaded with talent, with the likes of Aggie legends Chuckie Keeton, Kerwynn Williams, Will Davis, Chuck Jacobs, and others. In all, Utah State sent eight players to the NFL from that 2012 team. 

This year’s squad may not have quite the same level of stars (although the jury is still out), but they would nonetheless love to send the Utes away sulking on Saturday at the Mav. Beating this talented Utah team will be no easy task and the Aggies must play their best football to do so. With this Saturday’s matchup bearing down, here are three keys that will give the Aggies a path to victory if executed.

• Dominate the defensive line of scrimmage and dial up the pressure

In last weekend’s matchup against the USC Trojans, Utah State allowed 174 rush yards on an 8.7 yards per carry average in the first half alone. USC ran the ball at will for big chunks of yards throughout the game, tiring the Aggie defense and keeping the Aggie offense on the sideline. 

Similarly, in last week’s competition against Baylor, Utah running back Micah Bernard ran for over 100 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Under head coach Kyle Whittingham, Utah has found success as a defensive power with an offensive ground-and-pound approach. Utah will undoubtedly look to establish the run game early and often against USU on Saturday and for the Aggies to have a chance at a favorable outcome they must dominate the line of scrimmage on defense from the first snap. If Utah is consistently in short-yardage situations on second and third down the Aggies will find it difficult to get off the field and keep their opponent off the scoreboard. 

In addition to controlling the run game defensively, Utah State needs to bring consistent pressure to force the Utah quarterback into uncomfortable situations and find sacks. Utah’s starting quarterback Cam Rising left last week’s game late in the second quarter after a collision out-of-bounds that injured his right hand, leaving true freshman Isaac Wilson to replace him for the rest of the game. As of Wednesday, a decision had not been made on the status of Rising for Saturday’s game. 

Whether it is Rising or Wilson on the field on Saturday does not change the fact that USU cannot allow either Utah QB time to get to a second or third read and dissect the Aggie secondary. Against USC last week the Aggies rolled out a 5-3-3 defensive scheme with the hope of preventing the long passing plays from the USC offense. While the strategy proved effective at reigning in the long ball, the Trojans passed the ball consistently for eight to ten yards while quarterback Miller Moss threw comfortably from a clean pocket. The Aggies mustered just one QB hurry, two tackles for loss, and no sacks against USC last week. 

Utah State needs to be much more aggressive in their approach this week. In their week one win against Robert Morris the Aggies were much more assertive, frequently loading the box with seven or eight defenders on each play. On Ike Larsen’s week one interception, it was a five-man rush that forced a bad throw into coverage allowing Larsen to come up with the takeaway. Even if the Aggies don’t bring pressure after a five-three front, having more defenders in the middle of the field will force Rising or Wilson to look wide toward the sidelines which will in turn allow USU’s skilled secondary to make plays. Controlling the line of scrimmage and making the Ute backfield uncomfortable will prove vital in the Aggie’s upset hopes. 

• Sustain long scoring drives that shorten the game.

Just as Utah has built a name as a ground-and-pound offense, Utah State in recent years has developed a go-hard-go-fast mentality that has paid dividends. As seen in last week’s loss, Utah State cannot go blow for blow with teams such as USC and Utah and hope to be successful. If Utah State is going to pull off the win on Saturday, they will need to sustain long offensive scoring drives that eat a lot of clock and end in seven points. Each additional possession that Utah is given decreases USU’s chance of winning. 

In the loss to USC, the Utah State offense averaged just over 4.5 plays per possession and went three and out in four of 11 drives. On the other side, USC had five drives that went for over three and a half minutes and nine plus plays, resulting in 27 points for the Trojans. Not only will long scoring drives keep the Utah offense off the field and off the board, but they will rest and energize a relentless Aggie defensive unit.

• Win the turnover battle by 2+ turnovers. 

Utah over the last three years is averaging just over one giveaway per game. Utah State’s defense has also averaged just over one forced turnover per game in that stretch. Both these trends, at least for this week, will need to be broken to keep the Aggie’s hopes alive. 

Turnovers are one of football’s most powerful momentum changers. A timely turnover in a critical junction or scoring points on a turnover can flip a game on its head in an instant. Utah State needs to harness this power and force two or more turnovers against Utah to win. If it’s the young Wilson at quarterback this may prove easier for the Aggies than the ultra-experienced Rising, but against either, forcing a few takeaways to flip field position or rip points out of the hands of the Utes is critical. 

Just as forcing turnovers will be big for the USU defense, not giving the ball away offensively will be just as critical. In their first two games, Utah State has turned the ball over a total of four times. Against Robert Morris, the turnovers proved costly and took points off the board. Against USC, a turnover not only gave away possession but also the only real momentum the Aggies had all night, and ultimately led to seven more points for the Trojans. Playing turnover-free football and forcing two or more turnovers is a crucial stepping stone should the Aggies make it down Upset Lane. 

Utah State has a tough task ahead of them in playing their second top-ranked opponent in as many weeks. With that being the case the road to triumph this week is a narrow one, but it is there. If the Aggies can control the line of scrimmage on defense, sustain long scoring drives throughout the game, and win the turnover margin by at least two, they put themselves in a legitimate position to pull off their biggest upset in recent memory.