STATE YOUR CASE: Which rookie NFL quarterback will have the best rookie season?
Matt Harris – @snowmatt1417
Sam Darnold, USC
Whoever goes first in the draft is going to be playing for the Browns, so that player will not be the Rookie of the Year candidate. Cleveland is where dreams die. Currently, it looks like that top spot is becoming Josh Allen’s (Wyoming) more every day, including being Mel Kiper’s pick. If that happens, the likely second, Sam Darnold is likely passed up by the Giants and headed to the New York Jets. Darnold would then be my breakout pick.
Here’s the thing about the Jets: they just got a half-decent season out of Josh McCown. That’s a feat, and I’m prone to think it had more to do with the staff than the player. Despite having a reeking awful hand dealt to them in 2017, they pulled out a 5-11 season. That’s five more wins than a lot of people thought might happen. The Jets can pull things together with a promising and energetic new signal-caller. Darnold is strong, talented, and most of all, mature. He’s also coming out of a good system, despite there not being any USC QB’s accomplishing in the league right now. Darnold is a sure bet and the Jets stand to offer him a great situation, which is something the Jets very rarely can do. Even if not landing in the Meadowlands, Darnold can be “the guy” for any team in the top 5.
Jason Walker – @thejwalk67
Josh Allen, Wyoming
Honestly, I should have labeled this “whoever the Broncos pick.” Because if a different QB ends up going to Denver, I would pick him instead. But I think that, despite rumors, the Browns will pick Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield and Allen will fall to the Broncos. This is also assuming that Denver will take a QB instead of picking some other player or trading out of the fifth overall pick, both of which are legitimate possibilities.
The Broncos have been the best team without a quarterback since Peyton Manning lost his touch. They even won a Super Bowl without top-tier QB play. Give them someone that is actually talented under center and you’ll see good things. Just look at what happened with the Houston Texans. They had the pieces, they brought in a solid prospect and boom, future franchise quarterback.
I’m not saying Allen, or whoever the Broncos pick, is the best prospect. I actually think Allen is overrated despite his NFL body and arm. But when you go down the list of the best quarterbacks since about 2000, almost every single one was drafted to a team that just needed a great signal-caller to take the next step to contention. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees (kind of). Even today’s best future prospects are in that boat as well — Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff (ignoring his rookie year a bit). Few quarterbacks are drafted onto bad teams and succeed.