Jazz in need of a true game closer
This is a recurring column where Daniel Hansen, a Celtics fan, takes a look at the Utah Jazz without rose-colored glasses or doomsday binoculars and determines just how good, or bad, they really are. Let him know how idiotically wrong or absolutely right he is on Twitter @thegranddanny
7-6 is a good start to the NBA season. After the offseason, with its several months of non-competitive basketball, shaking off the rust and beginning the season above .500 is a major positive. But neither the Jazz, nor their fans, should be overtly happy about the start. In fact, there are a few causes for concern for the Jazz.
First, let’s start off by acknowledging that Utah has assembled an incredible roster. The offseason additions of George Hill and Joe Johnson rank among the best transactions of any team over the summer. And while fellow addition Boris Diaw hasn’t sparkled in his first few weeks in a Jazz uniform, he wasn’t signed for what he could do in November but rather what he can do in the playoffs, where he’s averaged over 10 points and 4.5 assists per 36 minutes each of the past three years. The contributions of those three, plus the return of Dante Exum, gives the Jazz a roster that allows them to beat anybody, including the Spurs, Clippers or Warriors.
The problem is that despite the impressive collection of talent, the results still haven’t come, or at least not consistently. The Jazz gave a pretty loud announcement to the rest of the NBA in their fourth game of the season by beating the Spurs in San Antonio 106-91. It was a stellar outing, even with Gordon Hayward out. The bench outscored the Spurs bench 45-24 as Trey Lyles and Shelvin Mack scored 15 and 14, respectively.
The impressiveness of that win, though, hides some of the other struggles the Jazz have had against good teams. Against teams under .500, the Jazz have excelled. In other terms, against teams the Jazz should beat, they have, going 5-0 in such games to start the season. But against teams over .500, the Jazz have struggled to impose their will, going 2-6, with their lone two wins coming against San Antonio and the Los Angeles Lakers. This isn’t a new problem, as this is a behavior that’s hindered the Jazz for several seasons. Take last year, for example, where the Jazz went 23-10 against sub-.500 teams, but only 17-32 against teams above .500. If the Jazz want to seriously challenge for home-court advantage in the playoffs, which I believe they have plenty of talent to do so, they need to improve on that record. Fast.
So why have the Jazz struggled against stiffer competition? That’s a loaded question with an exorbitant amount of answers, but there are a few to focus on. The first is the one most often used by fans and pundits alike, and that is injuries. It’s pretty difficult to beat the NBA’s toughest teams when you’re without some of your biggest weapons. Losing Favors and Gobert for long stretches doomed last year’s squad, and being without Hayward, Hill, and Favors for portions of the early season has similarly lessened Utah’s chances against the Clippers, Bulls, and Hornets. Bench players may be able to plug enough holes to compete with lesser teams on their schedule, as they have against the Mavericks and 76ers, but they’re often exposed against better competition.
Injuries certainly have impeded Utah’s ability to reach the playoffs; it’d be intriguing to see what would happen were the entire roster to stay relatively healthy for a full 82-game season and the playoffs. But there’s more to the Jazz struggles than injuries. To put it bluntly, the Jazz have been pretty inept at winning close games. Now, I know that there’s a massive crowd of Jazz fans screaming that I’m off my rocker and that I’m giving an uneducated opinion, but this isn’t just me who thinks this. Go take a look at John Schuhmann’s ‘One Team, One Stat’ article on the Utah Jazz before the season started on nba.com. Utah had the fifth-best point differential in the Western Conference last year at +1.8. However, the Jazz were 14-28 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. In short, that’s not good. Only the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers posted a worse record in such games. Any time you’re only better than the Suns and 76ers, you’re gonna have a bad time.
The Jazz have a terrific team, but they lack a true closer. Rodney Hood has potential, but he’s still several years away from being a dependable late-game finisher, if he ever reaches that point to begin with. Hayward is a top-20 player in the NBA, but he doesn’t necessarily frighten opponents in crunch time. In close games, points become harder to come by and offenses are harder to run, resulting in a larger number of possessions coming down to one person creating their own shot. Against stiff competition, these are the kinds of games the Jazz find themselves in often. Look no further than several nights ago against the Chicago Bulls, where these problems were on full display. The Jazz offense struggled to create open looks over the final key possessions. Even Exum’s 3-pointer that cut the lead to five came off of an in-bounds pass with one second on the shot clock after a sloppy possession. The Jazz lack a ‘clutch’ scorer who can score a tough basket when all other options fail, a clutch scorer like Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, who sank the Jazz with several key shots and plays of their own.
This is a position that Joe Johnson is desperately needed to fill, and looks to be able to. Johnson ranks second in effective field goal percentage over the past five years in the last minute of fourth quarter or overtime of games within three points. Simply put, the dude’s clutch, and the Jazz need him to continue to be so. The Jazz also need to improve on their late-game defense, which allowed a putrid 120 points per 100 possessions last season even with Gobert on the floor to control the paint. Having a healthy Hill should alleviate those issues, too, as he’s among the best defensive point guards in the NBA. Utah is one of the league’s best defensive teams, ranking fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 100 points per 100 possessions. Their late-game defensive woes should be easily fixed. In all fairness, having a healthy team overall would at least mitigate some of these issues, if not remedy them altogether. Furthermore, in close games where a lucky bounce can make all the difference, perhaps a string of good fortune is all the Jazz need.
From top to bottom, the Jazz have one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. They’re deep, as they’ve already shown in the first thirteen games of the season, and that depth will almost assuredly carry them through 82 games and into the postseason. They aren’t injury-proof, however, and they need to prove they can consistently defeat the better teams of the NBA and win tight games. These first thirteen games should be both slightly concerning and extremely hopeful for Jazz fans. Are the Jazz flawed? Yes. But they’re not that far off.
The schedule becomes a little friendlier to the Jazz for a few weeks. Out of the next 15 games, eight of them are against sub-.500 teams and 10 are in the confines of Vivint Smart Home Arena, including a five-game home-stand against the Suns, Warriors, Kings, Thunder, and Mavericks. This should be a stretch that the Jazz assert themselves as a bona fide playoff team. Two games against the Houston Rockets loom large, though, as tiebreakers for playoff seeding will be on the line and could be very impactful come seasons end. It may only be November, but the next month is crucial for the Jazz’ playoff aspirations.
Daniel Hansen is a journalism major who invests himself too much in the Baltimore Ravens, Boston Celtics, Boston Red Sox, and the Aggies. He also loves music and concerts, cooking and eating food, and is very much single. You can reach him on Twitter @thegranddanny or by email at daniel.b.hansen@aggiemail.usu.edu