Utah is no longer the reddest state
USU alumnus Jake Dinsdale said he grew up believing in the stereotypical Republican ideals and while he still identifies with those, this year, he voted for a Democrat. After watching the mismanaged presidency of George W. Bush, the disorderly campaign of John McCain and a misrepresentation of Republican ideals, Dinsdale said he couldn’t support the Republican ticket.
“Republicans are straying very, very far from what they say they are,” he said, adding, “They wrapped themselves in this label.”
While his friends tell him he’s gone “confederate,” Dinsdale said he felt President-elect Barack Obama was just the better candidate. Dinsdale did not cross party lines alone, however. He was joined by thousands in Utah and millions of voters across the country.
In a state that is historically blood-red, Utah is usually overlooked by Democratic campaigns and rarely visited by national Republican candidates simply because they know it is already in the bag. To Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, however, the state is not lost.
“We can’t win a state like Utah that hasn’t voted Democratic for years, but we can do is give a great candidate an opportunity to win in a place like Utah or Indiana by paving the groundwork and having a long-term business plan for winning elections,” Dean said, during a Nov. 5 interview with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews. Dean added, “We had an office open in Utah. And we weren’t going to win Utah for President Obama, but we thought maybe we would be able to help them. And sure enough, Utah went from being the very most Republican state in the country to maybe the fourth or fifth most, in terms of how much of the vote he got.”
Dean may have been overly enthusiastic in his prediction but the Democratic Party’s efforts in Utah certainly paid off in this election cycle. According to the Associated Press, Utah went from the most Republican state to third, falling behind Wyoming and Montana. Obama received more votes in Utah than Al Gore and John Kerry when they were running for office. And Michael Lyons, assistant political science department head and professor at USU, said that is noteworthy.
“Barack Obama did 8 percentage points better than John Kerry,” Lyons said. “That is more significant.”
Lyons said he believes there are a few reasons for this turnout – Obama’s appeal, the economic situation and an ever-increasing dislike for Bush.
While this reasoning was crucial to a turnout larger than usual for a Democratic presidential candidate in Utah, Lyons said people shouldn’t read too much into these numbers. Not yet, at least.
The electorate in Utah is changing, but it can only be seen in a generational time frame. Utah turning blue is “inevitable,” but Lyons said it will take several years, possibly decades.
He said, “That’s foreseeable in as little as 10 years or 40 years. Within your lifetime that will happen – I can promise you that.”
Utah voted democratically while it was a poor state but it has become more affluent and it is because of that, in part, that Utah has become a deeper shade of red.
But Lyons said defining political affiliation by income is an oversimplification. His prediction of the future hue of Utah is based on population trends, social identities, the evolution of political parties and historical shifts.
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints plays an obvious role in voter turnout and voting preferences in Utah. Lyons said Utah has historically had high voter turnout because of the emphasis the church places on patriotism. Because the church lies on the right side of most issues, LDS voters vote overwhelmingly Republican. Nationwide, religious people also tend to vote for the right. Lyons said religious people vote 2 to 1 Republican and make up 30 percent of the national electorate. Voters who are not religious vote 2 to 1 for the Democratic Party, also making up 30 percent of the electorate nationally, he said.
Marital status is also a determinate for most voters.
“Single people are strongly Democratic. Married people are weakly Republican,” he said.
Another factor that is helping change the red trend in Utah is that the Republican Party is losing ground on many issues, especially global warming and gay marriage. While McCain believed global warming was a real threat, most Republicans are not in agreement with him. It is this disagreement, Lyons said, that is causing the Republicans to lose supporters. Party members like Alaska Governor and former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who is a global warming skeptic, aren’t helping the divided party.
Lyons said, “Sarah Palin is throwing fuel on that fire. Unquestionably.”
For Dinsdale, Palin was a decisive factor in this election. He said Palin represents everything that is wrong with the Republican Party. He said he was turned off by her ignorance, pride and discourse. In regards to her and other party members’ disbelief of global warming, Dinsdale said he doesn’t get it.
“They almost don’t care the facts are there,” he said. “They just reject it outright without considering information that is indisputable – simple facts and figures.”
Another national hot topic is gay rights and Lyons said the Republicans aren’t winning here either. This defeat stems from generational shifts. The only reason Proposition 8 passed in California was because people older than 65 strongly supported it. Young people have very different opinions on issues such as these and because of that, Republicans are losing them. Lyons said the party is made of mainly “older, lower education, rural areas and that’s not a bright future.”
Not only is the party losing younger generations, but the older establishment as they leave the electorate. Lyons said this trend does not bode well for the future of the Republican Party.
Age, income, religion and marriage are all playing a part in the deterioration of the Republican Party in Utah but Lyons said the biggest deterrent this November was Bush.
He said, “This is what this election was about most fundamentally – repudiation of George Bush.”
In his 30 years in Utah, Lyons said he has never heard so many Utah Republicans complain about their national party. Bush, he said, “has rocked, has shaken the Republican Party.” Dinsdale agreed and said Bush was also a reason he voted democratic this year.
The President’s handling of the Iraq War was also a reason Dinsdale voted for Obama.
“They just spoke to America like children. They just talked down and I thought that was insulting,” he said.
Another influence over Dinsdale’s ballot was how “the Republican Party sucks the soul out of the candidate.” As a governor in Texas, Dinsdale said Bush was eloquent and aggressive. As president, however, “he lost himself to the Republican Party.” Dinsdale could see the same thing happening to McCain. He said he was also ready to have a leader that wouldn’t be an embarrassment overseas.
Dinsdale said he also became disenchanted with the party in part because of people like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity who believe people who dispute them are un-American and unpatriotic, which he disagrees with.
“I like Obama but just because I want to bring the troops home doesn’t mean I don’t support them,” Dinsdale said.
It is these attitudes and fierce debates that prevented Dinsdale from supporting the Republican ticket this year. He said the intelligent and logical answer lies in the middle. While all viewpoints are great for debate, in the end, people have to be willing to come to the table.
As evident with Dinsdale, Lyons believes party icons like Palin and Limbaugh are not good for the future of the party and will “drive the Republican Party straight down into a ditch.” As party members fight on social issues, the debate will define the future.
“It will be a struggle for the soul of the party,” he said.
Before any of this can happen, Lyons said competition must be restored into races throughout the state. Voters have to believe there is a chance for a different outcome. Lyons said the Intermountain West has always had high voter turnout but Utah is dropping continually and Lyons blames the Republican majority. For example, the race for governor.
“Nobody doubted for five seconds (Huntsman) wouldn’t win. It’s a forgone conclusion. You need competition,” he said.
Dinsdale believes, however, the idea of a useless vote exists elsewhere, too.
“I feel like unless you live in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, that it’s almost like your vote doesn’t count as much because of it already being decided. It’s a sentiment that goes across the board,” he said.
While he doesn’t think he will ever see Utah, especially Cache Valley, turn blue, he agrees Republicans are in trouble, comparing it to the makeover the auto industry is in need of – reorganization and redefinition of its roots. Despite this, he feels his vote was one in an apparent sea of change.
“My voice was heard,” Dinsdale said.
Dinsdale’s story can be seen nationwide. Whatever the voters’ reasons, the climate for the Republican Party is changing and, despite how long it may take in Utah, Lyons said, “The Republican Party is losing.”
“Change in voter attitudes, change in voter allegiance in Utah,” he said, “is going to come slowly.”
–arie.k@aggiemail.usu.edu