10202018_FOOTBALL-USU-AT-WYOMING_MH_01

Utah State football – Forecasting the 2019 season

The opener Utah State football is just under two months away, which means it’s time to overthink and overhype how they are going to perform come August 30. The excitement surrounding the school’s football program is well-deserved, as they finished last season ranked 22nd nationally in the AP poll. The last time USU has been ranked was 2012, when they finished the season 16th in the nation.

This upcoming year provides USU the opportunity to climb up the standings early on in the season, as Sports Illustrated lists the Aggies as a potential team to crack the top 10. The coaching situation is also something to look forward to. While Coach Matt Wells might have left for Texas Tech, Gary Andersen is back from his six-year hiatus to rejoin the team, last leading the team to a WAC championship and as high as 16th ranked in the AP. Adjusting to his new situation will be no problem at all, as coach Andersen looks to pick up right where he left off.

Another bright spot for the Aggies is returning quarterback Jordan Love. He had a respectable Freshman year and ended up starting the last six games of that season. Last year, however, is where his game really took off. Love finished the season as MVP of the New Mexico Bowl, with a blistering 64 percent passing completion rate, the 31st highest passing rate in the nation. Seeing as this upcoming season is only his Junior year, it’s safe to say he can only get better.

Despite all of this exciting news, it won’t mean anything if the team can’t survive its grueling schedule. The Aggies alternate every week between home and away, having two consecutive home games near the end of the season. If that doesn’t sound tiring enough, don’t forget that LSU, San Diego State and Fresno State are just a few of the teams they will be facing on the road. With these factors in mind, let’s take a look at each game and predict how the Utah State football team will perform.

Photo by Matt Halton.

Game 1 at Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons may not be the best or most exciting team in college football, but do not be deceived, their wide receivers are no joke, even after losing their star receiver Greg Dortch to the NFL. If the Aggies are able to contain the Demon Deacon’s offense, they should be able to take advantage of Wake Forest’s lackluster defense and start the season 1-0.

Game 2 vs Stony Brook Seawolves

Even though this matchup will be the first time these two teams have ever met, USU should be well-prepared for the Seawolves. This is the Aggie’s home opener, giving them the opportunity to flex their muscles and show the hometown fans and students what they are capable of. Stony Brook is not a bad team by any means, but as an FCS team that finished 7-5 last season Utah State should have every advantage to move their record to 2-0.

Game 3 at San Diego State

San Diego State began last season 7-2, before surprisingly losing its last four games of the season. This sounds like it should be good news for USU, but the Aztecs are going to come back hungry, as they are projected favorites in 11 of their games. Week three is a bye-week for USU, giving them ample rest before taking on San Diego. This period should provide USU with enough scouting and rest to go home 3-0.

Game 4 vs Colorado State

The 2018 season for CSU was abysmal to say the least. Between their head coach being hospitalized for the first portion of the season and never having any real continuity as a team, they finished the season 3-9. Last year’s game saw Utah State escape by the grace of instant replay, as the game-winning touchdown by the Rams was negated due to the receiver stepping out of bounds. The Aggies should have an easier go this time around, claiming a 4-0 record.

Game 5 at LSU

Remember the continuity issue that plagued Colorado State? LSU is just the opposite. The tigers bring back essentially every key offensive player they had. USU will have their work cut out for them as they try to contain LSU’s offense, but it just might not be enough, especially playing in Tiger Stadium. This looks to be the Aggie’s first loss sending them into their second bye week 4-1.

Photo by Megan Nielsen.

Game 6 vs Nevada

With a week off to collect their thoughts and nurse their wounds, USU will return home to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Nevada has been improving year after year, becoming quite the threat for any team in the Mountain West. However, the Aggies are looking to bounce back at home after battling LSU and should walk away with a hard-fought win. The Aggies will advance 5-1.

Game 7 at Air Force

The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Aggies as they once again head out on the road to face the Falcons. Despite what their 2018 record may suggest, Air Force is a very well-rounded team as five of their losses were actually fairly close contests. Defense will be the name of the game, as USU will pull out a win on the road, going up 6-1.

Game 8 vs BYU

USU took care of business on the road last year, handily pounding BYU in their very own LaVell Edwards Stadium. This is going to be one of the most exciting games as each team will have found their identity by this point in the season and will want nothing more than to come out on top. Utah State will claim victory, and could confidently be sitting in the top 25 at 7-1.

Game 9 at Fresno State

If the Aggies earn a top-25 position at this point in the season, it may be short lived. Reigning conference champion Fresno State will have home field advantage, and USU will be on the mend after a hard-fought game against BYU. This Utah State football squad just might run out of luck by this point, falling to 7-2.

Game 10 vs Wyoming

If you want to find a team with a schedule as difficult as the Aggies, look no further than the Cowboys. By the time USU faces off with Wyoming at home, the Cowboys will be licking their wounds from Nevada and Boise State, both of those games being on the road. USU must take advantage of their vulnerable opponent, taking the first of a two-game home stand at 8-2.

Photo by Megan Nielsen

Game 11 vs Boise State

Having back-to-back home games cannot come at a better time for USU, as this will be their sixth week in a row without respite. Boise State will without a doubt remain affixed in the top 25 as they continue to dominate. If the Aggies truly wish to take the next step and improve off of last year, they must win this game. It may sound foolish, but don’t count them out; the Aggies will earn this win, heading into their final regular season game 9-2.

Game 12 at New Mexico

No matter the result of the Boise State game, USU has the opportunity to end the season on a positive note. The Lobos are a depressing bunch, being used as a victory lap for whatever team they face. They may be the bottom-dwellers of the Mountain West Conference, but the Aggies cannot be careless. As long as they remain focused, USU will enter bowl season for the third consecutive year 10-2 atop the conference.

Only time will tell what this Aggie squad is made of. How well will Jordan Love thrive running a nearly brand-new offensive line? Will they be able to survive such a punishing schedule? Can they make it and become one of the top ten teams in the nation, something the school’s program hasn’t accomplished since 1961? Even with the excitement and uncertainties surrounding the team, Utah State football will absolutely be must-watch event.



There are 4 comments

Add yours
  1. Jimmy

    Oh how fast we forget what happened the last time the Aggies came to Winston Salem. We are better now you guys have a ton of turnover, new coach, new scheme, lack of experience on the line. Be wary

  2. JJ

    This article isn’t biased at all, especially vs. BSU. I’m an analyst, so stats are fairly reliable to me. Let’s look at the historical matchup for a second between the Aggies and the Broncos. Utah State has only defeated Boise State once in the last 13 matchups, which was 4 years ago in 2015. If you do the math, that’s only an 8% win probability (1 win vs. 12 losses). In that history, Boise’s average point spread per win 43.5 points. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking on these projections, especially adjusting to a newly appointed prior coach and scheme. I do think the Aggies are talented and they will definitely have another winning season under Jordan Love, but I don’t see them winning 9 games with this schedule. Probably more like 7-4 with losses to SDSU, Fresno State, LSU and BSU.

  3. D

    From 1994 to 2009 Utah State lost was 0-10 against BYU. That is a 0% win probability. Now Utah State is not 3-2 in the last five. You number mean nothing. Past games do not predict future games. Playing in Logan with the best qb in the league I like Utah states chances.


Comments are closed.