Utah State men’s basketball set to begin crucial two-game home stand
A three-game losing streak is a definite mood killer.
After surprising and exciting victories over Fresno State at home and UNLV on the road, Utah State sat at third in the Mountain West with a 3-1 record. Sophomore guard Koby McEwen looked to be over his early-season yips, and the team had miraculously found ways to overcome both their lack of interior size and horrible injury luck across the roster. The season’s outlook started to seem positively rosy.
That attitude has been shaken by the past three games, although not completely destroyed. The team was left at the mercy of Colorado State’s Prentiss Nixon, an unenviable situation to say the least, before falling to a vastly superior Nevada team. Instead of packing it in on the second leg of a tough road trip versus the MW’s top two teams, the Aggies fought back against Boise State, coming within a few lucky bounces of pulling off the upset and staying in the thick of the MW race.
Alas, the upset bid fell short. Now, USU finds themselves sitting at 3-4 and seventh place in MW play, squarely in danger of playing in the opening round of the MW tournament for the third straight season. The remainder of the MW season is going to be a dogfight, as only one game separates the third seed from the ninth. Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State, UNLV, and Wyoming all join USU in the mucky waters that are the middle of the MW standings. Even Air Force remains only one-half game outside of that grouping. In such an environment, where a single game can catapult you up the standings or sink you to its depths, defending home court is not just essential, it’s absolutely vital.
For Utah State, the next two games hold an extreme amount of sway on the rest of their season. The Aggies host both Wyoming and Air Force in the coming week, and will be favored in each game. Holding up to that favorite-status is another story entirely, but it will have an outsized impact on the trajectory of USU’s season.
On Saturday night, USU will try to bail out the sinking ship against a Wyoming team in danger of falling out of competition. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives USU a 73.1 percent chance of victory, but as USU’s dispiriting loss to the Rams showed, the Aggies cannot rely on a supposed victory. The Cowboys feature two players, forward Hayden Dalton and guard Justin James, who each average over 17 points per game, plus forward Alan Herndon, another double digit per-game scorer. Wyoming has the firepower to steal a win within the confines of the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum.
The key will be Wyoming’s defense. The Cowboys rank third in the MW in opponent field goal percentage, as opposing teams have shot only 42.6 percent from the field versus Wyoming. Closer inspection reveals an Achilles’ heel, however, as the Cowboys rank a derisory 252nd in the country in opponent 3-point field goal percentage on the year. Wyoming has allowed teams to shoot at least 40 percent from deep in half of their games so far this season, and have gone only 4-5 in such games, with losses to Denver, Northern Colorado, and New Mexico. Contrarily, when Wyoming’s perimeter defense has held opponents to under 40 percent shooting from 3, the Cowboys have gone 7-2, with wins over San Diego State, Boise State, Drake, and Oregon State. USU will have the chance to run Wyoming out of the Spectrum with a 3-point barrage. If the 3-point rains fail, though, it may spell trouble for the Aggies.
Against Air Force on Wednesday, USU will be the decided favorites entering the contest, though such results may hinge on Utah State’s 3-point shooting spreading over two games. If Wyoming’s 3-point defense is derisory, Air Force’s is downright insulting. The Falcons rank 337th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and are currently dead last in MW play. Unlike Wyoming, however, Air Force’s interior defense is equally faulty. Teams are shooting 52.4 percent on 2-point shots against the Falcons, which has jumped even higher to 53.4 percent in MW play. The Aggie offense should find plenty of open looks, the game will simply hinge on whether they can hit enough of them.
After USU’s two-game home stand, the Aggies could theoretically find themselves in prime position to receive a first-round bye in the MW tournament, or they could find themselves in a tie for ninth place. Such a range of possibilities is not ideal at this point of the season, but a 3-game losing streak never is, and it will be an uphill battle for the Aggies to regain their lost ground. Home games versus Wyoming and Air Force provide a great opportunity for Utah State to start.