Week one takeaways for Utah State basketball
Tis the season for overreactions as college basketball began around the country. Utah State is two games into the season and hasn’t blown it yet, posting a 2-0 record and making sure it didn’t drop in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Even though nothing can truly be known yet since many teams have yet to play a second game, there’s nothing stopping me from writing 1,700 words breaking down my early observations and thoughts.
No nights off
Merrill said it best himself during the postgame following the season-opening nail biter against Montana State: “We’ve just got to know that we can’t take any night’s off.”
A lot of takes I saw on Twitter that night were dismissive, saying it was the first game and Montana State was just hot at times (or specifically, Harald Frey was) and things will shake out well enough. I’m not buying that argument as much.
Keep in mind Utah State opened last season by scoring 101 points, also against Montana State. They also did it on the road with a new head coach and returning just two starters. You can’t claim first-game jitters with that kind of accomplishment under your belt. USU played bad, they need to own up to it and limit those bad nights as much as possible. The more they happen, the more losses the Aggies will sustain and that will have postseason repercussions.
Halloween has passed, but Aggies’ retain the scary on defense
Heck, last season Utah State was a very solid defensive team and I’m still impressed with how good the Aggies are when they don’t have the ball. I’m not a huge fan of how Smith’s defensive philosophy leaves 3-point shooters wide open a little too often, but it comes with the bonus of smothering shooters when they attempt shots inside the arc. Opponents have shot a blistering 32.3 percent on 2-pointers this season — ranking USU 18th in the country in that regard — leading to an understandable 53.5 points per game by teams facing the Aggies this season (that ranks 31st).
Mind you all these stats are being posted while the reigning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year rides the pine still nursing his summer knee injury. When he returns with all of his defensive glory, things could get worse for USU’s foes, if that’s even possible.
The missing piece on offense
As discussed, Utah State has been doing just fine without its defensive anchor from last year. Where Queta is missed is in his ability to put the ball in the bucket. You may not think 11.8 points per game last season was a huge piece of the pie, but that total was the second-highest only bested by Merrill, the conference MVP himself.
Queta’s post game is slightly overrated but his ability to finish, especially with the sets Craig Smith draws up for him, cannot be overstated. Trevin Dorius and Karwowski don’t have the finishing chops Queta does, even if the latter has some minor consistency issues. Utah State’s star center made 61.8 percent of his shots last year on nearly eight attempts per game. The current duo of Kuba and Dorius are sitting at a combined 53.8 percent on 6.5 attempts in more combined minutes (30.5) than Queta averaged last year (27.1).
Right now the Aggie offensive is passable. They are averaging 85 points per game and one of those games was an “off night” on offense. Queta will add another wrinkle that can put Utah State over the top on offense to combine with the murderer’s row of a defense.
Bairstow the point guard
Sean Bairstow has seen limited time early in the season. He played just four minutes in the closely contested MSU game though he got 17 in the blowout over Weber State. Bairstow does appear to be slated for a few meaningful minutes each night, but he has yet to earn the trust of Smith for key situations, hence getting benched all of the second half in the near-miss against the Bobcats. It’s very understandable, given that the Aussie is just a freshman with now a grand total of 21 minutes under his belt.
But in those 21 minutes and in the exhibition game, there are plenty of hints that this kid could be really good. Every time Smith brings up the young guard he lauds the potential lying in wait. But while most look at Bairstow, a 6-foot-8 young man, and see a two-guard or small forward, there’s a gem of a point guard hidden right under those people’s noses.
Bairstow has good vision in terms of passing. It’s raw and needs work, evidenced by his 5.7 turnovers per 40 minutes so far, but looking beyond those turnovers you can see what he can become with work. Bairstow grew up playing point guard, only being moved off-ball when a growth spurt tempted coaches to make him a wing. All those years playing with the mindset of a point guard didn’t go away and Smith ought to try and tap into it.
Those who watched the exhibition game know just how different Bairstow is when he’s playing off-ball versus when he mans the point. When he first came into the game, Bairstow largely played off-ball as a shooting guard/small forward and he was pretty underwhelming. Two points and two assists in 11 minutes. In the second half, Smith sent out lineups that featured Bairstow as the point guard. That was quite the ride.
In 13 second-half minutes, Bairstow scored nine points, making one shot while going to the free throw line eight times and making seven of those freebies. He also dished out five assists and grabbed six rebounds. That gave the Aussie 11 points, seven assists and six boards for the course of the game in 24 minutes of total play.
Bairstow is far more comfortable with the ball in his hands, attacking downhill and using his superior length and athleticism to create scoring for himself and others. Smith likely sees this and if the youthful Bairstow can develop, he’ll get a chance to showcase all that point guard talent on the floor.
Big bad Alphonso
I certainly wasn’t the only one to anticipate Alphonso Anderson making an immediate impact, but I have not been surprised by what the former North Idaho College forward has brought to Logan.
Justin Bean won the offseason battle to fill the starting void left by the forever underrated Quinn Taylor, but there will be plenty of times Anderson will play like a starter. He may even dual Diogo Brito for the title of best bench player at times.
Through two games, Anderson is fourth on the team in points despite zero starts. He’s also fourth in total rebounds. Anderson has yet to show his outside shooting potential, making 1-of-4 attempts from downtown, but he has the range and should showcase that in future outings. He has shown his shooting ability at the free-throw line, going 8-for-8 at the line against Montana State, all of which were clutch shots that helped swing the game in the Aggies favor.
All of that and Anderson’s defense has yet to be mentioned, which has been pretty good all things considered At 6-foot-7, he’s not the longest guy on the court. Still, the junior forward can play the four and stand up to just about anybody on defense. Anderson has even seen spot minutes at center which may happen again as long as Queta’s absence endures.
Shoot for the stars Brock
I’ve given Brock Miller a long leash in his short career so far, dismissing his struggles as growing pains typical of a freshman asked to start 35 games for a conference contender. That leash is also as long as it is because I have very high expectations for Miller.
When he came to Utah State out of Bingham High School, 247sports tabbed him as the highest-rated recruit since the site began recording. There’s some potential that needs to be fulfilled here.
The thing is, Miller isn’t the athlete many of his teammates are. Nor is he the passer, rebounder or defender any of them are. If you exclude Alek Johnson and Ben Fakira, who were non-factors on last year’s roster, Miller ranked dead last on the 2018-19 team per 40 minutes in assists, rebounds and steals. He was second to last in blocks and points, only ahead of Abel Porter who spent the first half of the season a low-minute backup.
But I don’t care about those deficiencies. He’s playable despite them. He would even be an elite role player if only one thing made a jump: 3-point shooting.
In his career, Miller is a 36.4 percent shooter from downtown. That’s good, above average, something any NCAA player could write home about. But here’s where those high expectations come in. For Miller to be the player fans, myself and Coach Smith expect him to be, Miller needs to raise that percentage into the 40s, or dang near close, and do it on high volume. Like, six or seven 3-point attempts per game volume.
Miller’s archetype could very well be in the same mold as guys like J.J. Redick, Kyle Korver and other rise-and-fire 3-point shooters who rain triples from the sky like manna from heaven. That type of shooter can take any type of three — pull-up, catch-and-shoot, around a screen, off-balance, anything. Those kinds of shooters are worth my weight in gold, all deficiencies on defense or other areas included.
Maybe all that is too much to ask, but if Miller is going to play the way he does on defense, on the glass and as a playmaker, that shooting is going to have to pick up a bit. He has the confidence to attempt the volume of shooting stars like Redick and Korver, but the efficiency needs to be there.
Stash and store a star
Bairstow wasn’t the only three-star recruit to join Utah State this summer. The Canadian wonder, Liam McChesney, enrolled at USU and his promise seems clear. But while he’s brimming with potential, McChesney may not get to flash any of it this season. Smith has two veteran forwards, Bean and Anderson at his disposal, capable of playing big minutes each night. Plus, Roche Grootfaam is available should the need arise.
Add to the logjam at power forward McChesney’s underwhelming performance in the exhibition game, fumbling rebounds (ending with zero) and only attempting one shot in 13 minutes. It indicated that while the Canadian can be a jewel, he’s one that needs some polishing — and plenty of sandwiches to bolster than 185-pound frame.
There are several good years ahead of McChesney at Utah State. No reason to waste one of them averaging five minutes per game and potentially getting embarrassed on the court because he’s not quite ready to hang with the big kids.