Why the Aggies will beat BYU

Games aren’t won on paper.

BYU is off to an impressive 4-0 start this season, earning a shiny No. 18 ranking following its 41-33 victory over Virginia. Junior quarterback Taysom Hill has rushed for 428 yards and seven touchdowns so far this season and added 876 yards (219.0 ypg) and six touchdowns through the air. The Cougar defense is quick, the team is well-coached, and the outlook for their season is nothing but optimistic.

It seems the only statistics ESPN finds relevant about Utah State have to do with an injured Chuckie Keeton and the Aggies’ 36-year winless streak at LaVell Edwards Stadium. While injuries and game location certainly have an impact on the outcome of a game, I’m here to point out a few things many analysts and fans alike are failing to consider.

First, timing. The Aggies returned home from Jonesboro with two weeks to mull over a stunning overtime loss at Arkansas State. They’ve also had two weeks to get nice and hungry for BYU. Two weeks to prepare, two weeks to study tape, two weeks to heal, two weeks to blast “Eye of the Tiger” and do whatever it is they need to do to go down to Provo and prove they’re not just going to roll over and die at the sight of BYU’s national ranking.

Second, Darrell Garretson. Certainly the Aggies will miss seeing number 16 on the field Friday night, but it’s time we give Garretson some credit. The guy stepped up last year and led USU to a division title and a bowl win over a ranked opponent— and did it as a true freshman unexpectedly thrown into a starting role. Critics will argue that his presence on the field lacks a dimension of the game that a fullback-quarterback hybrid like Taysom Hill brings, and they’re right. But I don’t see a problem with Garretson staying in the pocket and unleashing his cannon of an arm on the Cougar secondary, especially since pass-rushing is one of BYU’s few weaknesses.

Garretson is a starting-caliber quarterback in the Mountain West, and he should no longer be viewed as a consolation prize. No doubt BYU’s front seven will try to rattle him Friday, and he’ll have to play smart football to get the ball where it needs to go in a hurry. But, as anyone who watched the Arkansas State game knows, Garretson won’t hesitate to go deep if the opening is there—and it will be there.

Third, BYU’s game plan. Taysom Hill has had his way with defenses this year, averaging over 100 yards rushing per game— our defense smothered him for a season-low 14 last year. Last season’s 31-14 loss to BYU was the result of losing Keeton in an emotional blow that crippled the Aggies from the inside out, and an out-of-sync offense that gave up three turnovers to a good Cougar defense.

This year we’re ready. This year, Hill will have to choose between scrambling against the fourth best rushing defense in the nation, or throw into an Aggie secondary that forced four turnovers two weeks ago in Jonesboro. This year Utah State stands a good chance to win the turnover battle, and add to its three defensive touchdowns in as many games this season.

Oh, and I imagine that read option will get old real quick after running into the Vigil brothers a few times.

Fourth, Utah State’s game plan. People keep bringing up that stat, “Well they haven’t won in Provo since ’78!” Right, want to know how the Aggies did it in 1978? They marched onto the field and punched BYU right in the mouth. USU capped a 67 yard drive with a 17 yard run less than three minutes into game, and the Cougars never recovered. The Aggies shredded BYU for two quarters, leading 21-0 at the half. BYU’s lone score of the game came from a fumble recovery inside the USU 5-yard line. That game ended 24-7.

That should be our game plan. To do to them what they did to us last year. To take the field and make it clear from opening kickoff USU won’t be messed with. From the opening drive we can prove we won’t be intimidated. We have to go down to Provo anyway, we may as well bring the game to them, too.

The oddsmakers have BYU listed as 21-point favorites over USU, a reflection of both teams’ respective seasons up to this point. But whether the folks in Provo admit it or not, this game is about a rivalry, and in rivalry games, it’s dangerous to count on season trends. Sometimes you just have a feeling something special could happen, and as Aggie fans, we get that feeling with every game we play. We declare it—loudly—in the form of “I believe.” We know that football isn’t a game of stats and rankings, it’s a game of inches — and a game of inches is anyone’s game.