Sam Merrill NBA Draft preview
Sam Merrill is ready for the next chapter of not only his basketball career, but also his life.
After falling short on his goal of winning a game in the NCAA Tournament, the 24-year old guard will try to make good on another one of his major goals: play for an NBA team in the 2020-21 season.
The entire world seems to be working against Merrill’s goals at the moment. Shutdowns due to the coronavirus already robbed him of a second shot at March Madness glory and now his pre-draft process is functionally crippled, being unable to do in-person meetings or workouts with NBA teams. All of that leaves Merrill in a precarious situation as he is already a longshot to be drafted.
Despite joining the 2,000-point club and leading the charge for back-to-back conference titles by Utah State, Merrill is only making a faint blip on mock draft radars. While few mocks at the moment foray into the second round, the ones that do aren’t keen on Merrill’s draft potential. As of now, Rookie Wire seems to be the only published mock draft predicting him being drafted with their June 16 mock predicting the Los Angeles Clippers taking the former Aggie 57th overall.
Other outlets have flagged Merrill as a possible draft pick but as more of an outside-looking-in prospect. NBA Scouting Live ranked him 72nd on their big board, Sports Illustrated had him even higher at 57th but SI’s draft analyst, Jeremy Woo, did not include Merrill in his latest two-round mock draft published on June 3.
There is some NBA buzz around Merrill, however. Several prominent draft analysts have mentioned the Aggie great in their pre-draft coverage. ESPN’s Mike Schmitz brought up Merrill’s name in a mid-March insider article and later tweeted a few video clips showcasing Merrill’s passing but didn’t say whether he thought Merrill would hear his name on draft day.
Sam Vecenie, the NBA Draft Analyst for The Athletic, did commit to saying he thinks Merrill will be taken with one of the 60 selections. He did as much on a podcast he did with fellow Athletic writer Tony Jones. It’s worth noting that Jones, who has covered sports in Utah extensively for years, also believes highly in Merrill’s NBA potential.
So what has teams hesitating on risking one of their precious picks on Merrill and what other factors are making some writers giddy and front offices possibly keen on kicking the tires to see if they can steal a rotation player? Here’s the full NBA Draft breakdown on one of the best players to ever lace it up at Utah State.
Offense
Merrill’s style on offense is very basic but also fundamentally sound. There’s no fancy dribbling, no dunking — Merrill never dunked once in his four-year collegiate career — no flashy moves and no feats of athletic greatness; just pure, unaltered efficiency in both shooting and playmaking. It’s hard to see a 2,000 career point scorer in Merrill by just looking at him, but it’s much easier to understand when you see his shooting numbers.
In three of his four seasons, Merrill shot above 41 percent from three. His one “down” year he sank just under 38 percent of his deep attempts. He put up those percentages while taking a very high-volume of 6.5 threes per game across his final three seasons, and in the final two, he was the only perimeter scoring threat for USU, drawing all the attention of opposing gameplans.
The methods Merrill used to create open looks for himself were largely dependent on his teammates and scheming by the coaching staff. Every time Merrill got the ball in the backcourt, a screen was made or had already been made to give him an open path or runway. That’s not atypical of any playmaker in any offensive system (unless you’re James Harden) but it’s key to note that Merrill almost entirely lacks the means to create his own opening through dribble moves or athletic prowess. Once given an opening he could strike the fear of God into an opposing defense, but if a team could keep him from reaching that downhill point, they could neutralize Merrill completely.
All of that isn’t to say Merrill can’t put on a move or two. Occasionally he broke out a hesitation or maybe a crossover which can catch lazy defenders off guard but Merrill’s main counter to driving though became his mid-range jumper. Without the means to speed past or bully opponents to get to the rim, Merrill utilized his best skill, shooting, to beat foes with a stellar mid-range game.
Aside from shooting, Merrill’s most NBA-ready attribute is his passing. In four years he never posted fewer than 3.1 assists per game with a career average of 3.6. Merrill’s passing arsenal is nearly complete from long outlets, pocket passes, cross-court passes, one-handed swing passes and whatever else you can think of. The only pass Merrill never seemed to break out is the lob. Given the lob’s prevalence in the NBA, Merrill will have to develop that skill to maximize his potential as a playmaker.
The most relevant part of Merrill’s passing game in terms of next-level use is the pick and roll. Utah State didn’t run your traditional Stockton-to-Malone screen and roll, but they ran plenty of variations that required similar skills. Merrill scored quite a bit off of the initial screen, but also sprayed passes across the court when teams converged on him. But as just mentioned, Merrill doesn’t seem to have the lob pass in his bag which is a very common pass in the pick and roll which only goes further to show how urgent it is for him to perfect that skill.
A very remarkable and often overlooked part of Merrill’s effectiveness comes from his ability to protect the ball. Despite being asked to play the role of both primary distributor and scorer, Merrill posted a turnover percentage of just 9.0 with a per-game average of 1.6 in his senior season.
Neither of those numbers top the charts, but put in context of Merrill’s responsibilities, they become amazing. Consider that Merrill was the only qualifying player in 2019-20 to have an assist percentage above 18.8 (his was 23.1) and a turnover percentage below 10.9 (Merrill was at 9.0).
To put it simply, when the ball is in Sam Merrill’s hands, it is in the safest hands.
Defense
This is the area that scouts have been paying attention to the most, especially last season. As already mentioned, Merrill is great offensively and his skillset is NBA ready. However, with so many teams head-hunting for matchups on offense, being a liability on defense — someone superstar scorers can pick on relentlessly — can be a one-way ticket to the European circuit.
Ultimately, this may be the one thing that sinks Merrill’s NBA chances. On offense, Merrill’s lack of top-tier potential is easily forgivable as he can fill a role as a shooter and passer, two things that NBA teams crave in role players. You don’t have to hide Merrill on offense, he’d actually be very dangerous if teams forgot about him. On defense, that changes. The elite among the NBA will be too fast, quick and/or big and for Merrill when he’s guarding them on-ball. Merrill showed great off-ball hustle and is capable of chasing shooters around the court as good as anyone. But when matched up against any other type of player other than the Kyle Korver and J.J. Reddick’s of the NBA, Merrill will find himself facing a steep challenge, especially when guarding on the ball.
Merrill’s lackluster defensive prospects are a very big and very real concern based on his draft but it isn’t all doom and gloom.It’s possible for Merrill to become a neutral defender, maybe even slightly positive if he’s able to get past what may be a very rough learning curve. Merrill is a tough, and more importantly, smart defender. After all, he has extensive experience guarding skilled offensive players since Merrill often guarded the opposing team’s best playmaker, many of whom were quicker than he. If placed on the court with a great rim protector, he could easily use that accumulated experience and knowledge plus his hustle to great advantage and a good portion of his defensive issues would melt away. Though that does mean teams would be shackled with always needing to have an elite rim-protector on the floor with Merrill or try to scheme around his issues.
Physical Attributes
This is the most troublesome area for Merrill and the one that could end his NBA career before it can get off the ground. At the collegiate level, athletic and/or physical prowess is very helpful (see Queta, Neemias) but not 100 percent necessary. At the NBA level, the floor for required physical attributes gets raised considerably, and Merrill is at great risk of finding himself below this proverbial floor.
Just looking at Merrill’s frame, he actually starts off on a decent foot. His official height is 6-foot-5 and while rumor insists he’s a legit 6-5, it’s safer to assume Merrill is closer to 6-foot-4 in socks. He tips the scales at a light, but not featherweight, 205 pounds. As for wingspan, there’s not really any public information about that yet, but given that Utah State has been very willing to share when it’s player have exceptional wingspans (Neemias Queta and Ben Fakira spring to mind as recent examples for wingspan), it’s almost certain Merrill’s doesn’t exceed 6-foot-8 and one wouldn’t be amiss to assume it’s around 6-foot-6.
These measurables wouldn’t be bad for most guards. NBA guards tend to be between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-7 so Merrill fits in well with the crowd, even if he has a below-average wingspan. One shouldn’t get carried away in thinking he has elite or even good length for a guard, though. He’s simply average. What length he has gives him the ability to stand toe-to-toe with NBA peers but doesn’t offer any notable advantages.
Where things start to go wrong physically for Merrill are in the departments of athleticism, quickness and speed. He lacks all three to a significant degree. The presumptive consequence is that Merrill has an uncomfortably low ceiling in terms of potential, but there is a more pressing concern already alluded to here. There is a soft floor, or benchmark, for physical attributes that NBA players need to meet to be viable in the league. It can be worked around in some cases — hence the term “soft” floor — but those cases are rather exceptional.
For Merrill the more worrisome part of his lack of athletic gifts, is not being able to reach this soft floor.
The saving grace for Merrill, should he make it onto a regular season roster, will be his length as it potentially allows him to play three positions: point guard, shooting guard and small forward. Given his skillset, having the length to pull off three positions will be a great boon to his chances of sticking with a team.
Projecting an NBA role
Being an unathletic guard makes things immediately difficult for Merrill as the league is not often kind to individuals who don’t have olympian levels of physical prowess. There’s a long line of guys who made names for themselves in March but never heard that name in June nor found themselves on an active roster by October, all because they lacked an NBA body or athleticism, or both in some cases.
But for all the never-ending pessimism about his athleticism, size and/or defensive capabilities there’s a lot of room for hope. There are more avenues toward getting a legit shot in the NBA than ever and there is a projected path, however narrow it may be.
The key thing to note is the skills Merrill will bring are his shooting, passing, defensive IQ and off-ball capabilities. For his senior season, Merrill added plenty of tricks to his bag, but nearly all of them would go largely unused at the next level. His dribble moves off screens, floaters in the paint, finishing on contested layups and drawing fouls aren’t good enough to pull off against the professional crowd unless he really goes to town to improve them. His best role is that of an off-ball shooter, cutter and semi-consistent pick-and-roll ball handler.
Running the pick and roll as an off-ball wing is actually a very natural place for Merrill to find a niche in an NBA offense. He spent most of his college career going around screens to initiate offense for himself and is a great passer out of that action as well. It’s easy to see any team putting Merrill out there at point guard, running pick and rolls or other offensive actions. That or roll him out at the more standard shooting guard or as a short small forward but have him double as a sort of second point guard on the floor along with any off-ball shooting they run for him.
Many Aggie fans will already be familiar with one player who has this versatility and compares well to Merrill in terms of being “unathletic.” That man being Utah Jazz forward, Joe Ingles, someone who didn’t make a regular season NBA roster until he was 27 years old. His ability to shoot at an elite level and run the pick and roll from four separate positions has essentially made his career.
NBA Comparisons
While overall few in number, multiple comparisons can be found who share striking similarities to Merrill. Ingles was just used as a playstyle similarity, but current NBA guys like him, Duncan Robinson and Kyle Korver — all unathletic shooters — have a common characteristic that sets them apart from Merrill: height. Each of those guys is 2-3 inches taller than Merrill, giving them an added advantage on defense and even allows them to potentially play power forward, something that gives them more versatility, the NBA’s favorite quality behind shooting. Some might point to J.J. Reddick as a shorter shooter, but he was considerably quicker coming out of college than Merrill is.
The two players who compare most favorably are Sacramento Kings guard, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Brooklyn Nets guard/forward, Joe Harris.
Both players stand 6-foot-6, which could be up to two inches taller than Merrill’s probably 6-foot-4 height, but that’s about as different as these guys get. All three are in the “unathletic shooter” mold on a basic level, but there are even more similarities. Each didn’t make it to the big stage until around age 24. Harris was 23 on draft day but turned 24 shortly before his rookie season. Bogdanovic was 22 for the 2014 draft, but didn’t see his first NBA action until he had turned 25.
Bogdanovic is of particular interest as a comparison because while Harris is hardly a capable passer, Bogdanovic has developed a well-earned reputation as a passer and shooter. He’s capable of running the Kings’ second unit offense and is one of the premier sixth men in the league. Anyone familiar with Merrill’s game could watch Bogdanovic’s highlight package and easily see shades of Sam Merrill.
*Graphic by Rosie Davis
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